{"id":557300,"date":"2026-04-21T14:21:24","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:21:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/557300\/"},"modified":"2026-04-21T14:21:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:21:24","slug":"rangers-shouldnt-rely-on-winning-draft-lottery-the-hockey-writers-new-york-rangers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/557300\/","title":{"rendered":"Rangers Shouldn&#8217;t Rely on Winning Draft Lottery &#8211; The Hockey Writers &#8211; New York Rangers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The one silver lining for the New York Rangers following the 2025-26 season is that all the losing will come with a decent chance at winning the draft lottery. The high pick is much needed as the group needs to add another difference-maker or two to the roster.<\/p>\n<p>While there\u2019s definitely a legitimate shot at earning the right to select the best player in the 2026 Draft, the organization shouldn\u2019t center its plan around picking first overall or even second in the upcoming draft.<\/p>\n<p>Plan on Picking 3-5<\/p>\n<p>The reality is that fans should brace for picking in the 3-5 range. That\u2019s the most likely scenario, with a 77.3 percent chance of it happening. Odds of picking first overall are 11.5 percent, while second is 11.2 percent, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tankathon.com\/nhl\/pick_odds\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tankathon<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"873\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Daly-2020-Draft-Lottery-scaled-1200x873.jpg\" alt=\"2020 NHL Draft Lottery\" class=\"wp-image-675060\"  \/>NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly announces draft positions during Phase 1 of the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery on June 26, 2020. (Photo by Bruce Bennett\/NHLI via Getty Images)<\/p>\n<p>So instead of <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/docs\/gavin-mckenna\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Gavin McKenna<\/a> or Ivar Stenberg, the Rangers are likely looking at names like Caleb Malhotra, Carson Carels or maybe even <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/chase-reid-2026-nhl-draft-prospect-profile\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Chase Reid<\/a>. All of those prospects have the potential to turn into difference makers for a franchise \u2013 and it\u2019ll be up to scouts to find the right and best player.<\/p>\n<p>But at the same time, the Rangers need to be prepared for a player to slide, should they wind up picking in the 3-5 range. In recent years, we\u2019ve seen talented players drop in the draft, including <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/philadelphia-flyers-draft-matvei-michkov-7-overall\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Matvei Michkov and James Hagens at seventh overall<\/a>, and Ivan Demidov at fifth.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps during this year\u2019s draft, Stenberg (the consensus second pick) will be the one to fall, giving the Rangers an opportunity to land someone special.<\/p>\n<p>Needing to Cash in on More Assets<\/p>\n<p>After a relatively <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/rangers-should-have-little-confidence-in-chris-drury-after-trade-deadline\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">quiet 2026 Trade Deadline<\/a>, the front office is left with unfinished business. Most notably, <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/docs\/vincent-trocheck\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Vincent Trocheck<\/a> remains with the team.<\/p>\n<p>Not that the Rangers absolutely urgently need to trade the centerman, because he remains under a cap-friendly $5.63 million average annual value over the next three years \u2013 but it would probably be in their best interest to do so. This would bring back assets, including draft picks and potentially young players and prospects. <\/p>\n<p>Trocheck is the Rangers\u2019 best trade piece, and they must get important assets back. But if a team isn\u2019t willing to pay up, then again, perhaps president and general manager Chris Drury will decide to hold onto him again.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/docs\/braden-schneider\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Braden Schneider<\/a> is a player the organization should absolutely move. While he\u2019s still only 24 years old, it\u2019s hard to see where the 6-foot-4 defenseman fits on the roster and how the Rangers can improve without trading him.<\/p>\n<p>When Adam Fox got hurt, and Schneider was given minutes to play with Vladislav Gavrikov, it turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. When on the ice together during 2025-26, the Schneider-Gavrikov pairing posted a 40.95 percent expected goals for (xGF share), according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.naturalstattrick.com\/pairings.php\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Natural Stat Trick<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The difference was night and day when Gavrikov was paired with Fox, with the two combining for an xGF share of 58.49 percent. Sure, it helps playing with one of the best defensemen in the league \u2013 but only one is capable of playing a top pairing role, while the other isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n<p>Although Schneider definitely has top-four upside, he has likely hit his peak in New York as a third-pairing defenseman. It\u2019s time for a change in scenery. Perhaps a team desperate for defensemen, like the San Jose Sharks, would pay a premium and even be willing to trade a first-round pick or a young promising player like Collin Graf to make a deal work. <\/p>\n<p>The Rangers would be wise to leverage as much as they can, but regardless, Schneider should be moved, even if it\u2019s only for a second-round pick and a prospect. <\/p>\n<p>Additionally, the Rangers need to play offense in the trade market. As of now, they have two first-round picks, at least three third-round picks and one second-round pick in the upcoming draft. Certainly, the opportunity presents itself with Trocheck and Schneider to stockpile more assets. <\/p>\n<p>This would give the Rangers more flexibility to acquire a big name. Right now, Jason Robertson comes to mind, who the Dallas Stars may not be able to squeeze under the salary cap for 2026-27 if he commands too much.<\/p>\n<p>The Rangers, on the other hand, can make it work, as they are projected to have nearly $27 million in cap space this offseason, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/puckpedia.com\/team\/new-york-rangers\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">PuckPedia<\/a>. Robertson, who is coming off a 96-point season, would provide a huge boost to the Rangers\u2019 scoring woes.<\/p>\n<p>Some St. Louis Blues players would make sense as well, including Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas. <\/p>\n<p>Then you think of Brady Tkachuk, who has been long-rumored to the Rangers. But why would the Ottawa Senators want to trade the 2018 fourth overall pick, who is signed for another two seasons after this one, at around an $8.2 million AAV? And what\u2019s Tkachuk\u2019s incentive to come over the border to a team that hasn\u2019t even qualified for the playoffs over the past two seasons? So this one is unlikely to happen.<\/p>\n<p>While the Rangers will have a legit shot at winning the draft lottery, the front office shouldn\u2019t get distracted by it. Either way, the organization will have a shot at drafting a game-changing talent and should plan on finding one in the 3-5 range.<\/p>\n<p>The next important move is finding a star in the trade market (preferably someone under the age of 29) and accumulating enough assets to acquire who that may potentially be. A lot of work needs to be done still, and adding that player in the top five is only a piece of the solution, rather than the savior.<\/p>\n<p class=\"thw-substack-cta__label\">Free Newsletter<\/p>\n<p class=\"thw-substack-cta__title\">\n        Get New York Rangers coverage delivered to your inbox        <\/p>\n<p class=\"thw-substack-cta__desc\">In-depth analysis, breaking news, and insider takes &#8211; free.<\/p>\n<p>        <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.substack.com\/s\/new-york-rangers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" class=\"thw-substack-cta__btn\"><br \/>\n        Subscribe Free \u2192<br \/>\n        <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The one silver lining for the New York Rangers following the 2025-26 season is that all the losing&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":557301,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5111],"tags":[40821,5,3328,35,5190,5193,4,36],"class_list":{"0":"post-557300","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-new-york-rangers","8":"tag-2026-nhl-draft-lottery","9":"tag-hockey","10":"tag-new-york","11":"tag-new-york-rangers","12":"tag-newyork","13":"tag-newyorkrangers","14":"tag-nhl","15":"tag-rangers"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116443145260549085","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=557300"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557300\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/557301"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=557300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=557300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=557300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}