\u201cWe know we have better in us.\u201d If you\u2019ve been around the Tampa Bay Lightning long enough then you\u2019ve heard the phrase before. Much like you\u2019ve heard \u201cProcess over Outcome\u201d \u201cTurn the Page\u201d and several other phrases from members of the team and coaching staff. It\u2019s only been one game and Coach Jon Cooper has already pulled out the \u201cbetter in us\u201d quote, which is probably Defcon 4 levels of concern. At least they aren\u2019t at the \u201cgreat thing about today is that it isn\u2019t yesterday\u201d level yet.<\/p>\n
This is not a must-win game. That doesn\u2019t happen in the playoffs until you\u2019re staring at a \u201c3\u201d in the loss column next to your name. It is, for lack of a better description, a \u201ctrying-to-avoid-heading-to-Montreal-in-a-2-0-hole-to-face-a-hopped-up-crowd-and-a-young-team-with-a-ton-of-confidence\u201d game. So, if the Lightning do indeed \u201chave better\u201d in them, tonight is the night to show it. <\/p>\n
They did a lot of things really well in Game One. A power play that couldn\u2019t find the back of the net with a compass and a map for most of March scored twice. They limited chances at 5v5. They created a little havoc in the neutral zone. In 12 minutes of 5v5 time they limited the Canadiens\u2019 top line to just one shot on goal and two high-danger chances (stick taps to the Anthony Cirelli line for that). <\/p>\n
Unfortunately, they didn\u2019t do enough to actually win the game. Their penalty kill struggled with Montreal\u2019s crisp puck movement and left Juraj Slafkovsky wide open for two of his three goals. Offensively, they didn\u2019t generate enough traffic in front of Jakob Dobes or get to the front of the net enough. <\/p>\n
In playoff series, as opposed to the regular series, \u201cluck\u201d can have a slightly bigger influence on the outcome of a game. A team doesn\u2019t have to consistently win the high-danger chance battle to win a game. It\u2019s just as likely that a random puck flung in the general direction of the net hits a stick, a skate, and the inside of the post to win a game as a well-constructed play that leads to a prime scoring chance. <\/p>\n
That being said, the Lightning generated one, ONE aka the loneliest number, high-danger chance at 5v5 against the Canadiens. That isn\u2019t good enough, and it\u2019s an indication that they weren\u2019t getting to the front of the net. Overall, the Bolts won the shot attempt battle with 23 shots, but 10 of those came on the power play. <\/p>\n
A quick look the 5v5 shot attempts courtesy of Evolving Hockey:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/shot_chart-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
For context, the bigger the square, the higher the expected goals value for the shot attempt. The two glaring takeaways from this visual are that most of Tampa Bay\u2019s shots came from the perimeter. Second, Montreal did a really good job of getting their attempts from right in front of Vasilevskiy. <\/p>\n
Second, and you can\u2019t see this on this visual because it\u2019s not interactive, the Canadiens best chances came from their forwards. Only one of those large squares in the front of the net was from a defenseman. On the Lightning\u2019s side, both of their top chances came from a defenseman (Darren Raddysh and Erik Cernak). <\/p>\n
Yes that is part of the Lightning system to generate chances from activated defensemen, but the absolute lack of prime chances from forwards (outside of Brandon Hagel\u2019s goal) is worrisome. They have to get in front of the net and make life difficult for Dobes. Even if it\u2019s just a screen or an extra jab at the puck. <\/p>\n
The Cirelli line was the Lightning\u2019s best line, not only for what they did to slow down the Nick Suzuki line, but they were one of the few lines that generated some offense as well. Hagel, Cirelli, and Jake Guentzel combined for 8 of the Lightning\u2019s 5v5 shot attempts and 5 of their scoring chances. The top line of Gage Goncalves, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov had just 2 scoring chances all night. Some of that can be credited to Montreal\u2019s top pairing of Mike Matheson and Alexandre Carrier who spent the bulk of the night on the ice against them. <\/p>\n
There was no doubt that this was going to be a close series, despite what a lot of the national media predicted. It was the Lightning\u2019s inability to refrain from pointless\/stupid\/careless penalties that cost them in Game One. If they can clean that up and get a little more traffic in front of the net, they can pick up the win and send this series to Montreal all tied at one game a piece.<\/p>\n
As for the line-up, consensus seems to be that Declan Carlile will draw in and make his playoffs debut due to the injury to Charle-Edouard D\u2019Astous. It\u2019s unlikely they will start the game with any other line-up changes. Outside of the Josh Anderson hit on D\u2019Astous, the game wasn\u2019t aggressively physical. Yes, there were plenty of hits, but there wasn\u2019t a ton of post-whistle nonsense. With that style of play Coach Cooper is going to lean to having a little more skill on the ice than physicality, so Conor Geekie likely stays in over Scott Sabourin. <\/p>\n
Potential Lines<\/p>\n
Tampa Bay Lightning<\/p>\n
Forwards:<\/p>\n
Gage GoncalvesBrayden PointNikita KucherovBrandon HagelAnthony CirelliJake GuentzelNick PaulYanni GourdeZemgus GirgensonsCorey PerryDominic JamesConor Geekie<\/p>\n
Defense:<\/p>\n
J.J. MoserDarren RaddyshRyan McDonaghErik CernakEmil LillebergDeclan Carlile<\/p>\n
Goaltenders:<\/p>\n
Andrei VasilevskiyJonas Johansson<\/p>\n
Montral Canadiens<\/p>\n
Forwards:<\/p>\n
Cole CaufieldNick SuzukiJuraj SlafkovskyAlexandre TexierAlex NewhookIvan DemidovZack BolducOliver KapanenKirby DachJake EvansPhillip DanaultJosh Anderson<\/p>\n
Defense:<\/p>\n
Mike MathesonAlexandre CarrierKaiden GuhleLane HutsonJayden StrubleArber Xhekaj<\/p>\n
Goaltenders:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Game Two: Montreal Canadiens (1-0) at Tampa Bay Lightning (0-1) Time: 7:00 PM EST Location: Benchmark International Arena,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":557315,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5103],"tags":[265,5,264,21,5147,4],"class_list":{"0":"post-557314","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-montreal-canadiens","8":"tag-canadiens","9":"tag-hockey","10":"tag-montreal","11":"tag-montreal-canadiens","12":"tag-montrealcanadiens","13":"tag-nhl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116443245816953551","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=557314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557314\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/557315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=557314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=557314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=557314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}