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<\/p>\nWelcome to week 35 of The Athletic\u2019s Premier League predictions challenge, where late, late goals continue to cause chaos.<\/p>\n
The clubs scored 24 times across 10 Premier League games in week 34, a measly average of 2.4. But no fewer than nine of those came from 80 minutes onwards \u2014 and five of them were in stoppage time.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a stark illustration of one of this season\u2019s Premier League trends. Goals are down \u2014 and those from open play are way down \u2014 but, with so many tight games left hanging in the balance in the closing stages, we are seeing a lot more dramatic late twists.<\/p>\n
Back in the 1990s, when stoppage time was usually limited to two or three minutes per match, there were fewer late goals. In 1995-96, only 144 of the 988 goals scored in the Premier League (that\u2019s 14.6 per cent) came after the 80th minute.<\/p>\n
That has crept upwards over time, particularly as the amount of time added on (making up for the seconds lost to VAR checks, multiple substitutions, protracted goal celebrations and all those injuries that teams only seem to get when they are one goal ahead) has increased.<\/p>\n
But as recently as 2022-23, only 169 of the 1,084 Premier League goals scored (that\u2019s just 15.6 per cent) arrived after the 80th minute.<\/p>\n
So far this season, it\u2019s 196 of 927. That\u2019s 21.1 per cent, equalling the competition\u2019s high point of 2007-08.<\/p>\n
The data for stoppage-time goals is even more striking.<\/p>\n
Throughout the 1990s, the share of goals arriving from the 90th minute onwards was always less than four per cent of the total. Until the past few years, it had never been higher than the 8.1 per cent of 2007-08. But the three most recent seasons have seen a boom in the number of goals in added time: 112 out of 1,246 in 2023-24 (9.0 per cent), then 95 out of 1,115 (8.5 per cent), and so far in this one it\u2019s 104 out of 927 (11.2 per cent).<\/p>\n
This has played havoc with our predictions. I don\u2019t know how many times since August I have been left cursing a late goal for wrecking one of my scorelines, but it\u2019s a lot.<\/p>\n
Funnily enough, last week was a bit swings-and-roundabouts for me on that front.<\/p>\n
I missed out on spot-on picks for 1-1 draws as Bournemouth\u2019s game against Leeds United escalated to 2-2 in the closing stages and West Ham United scored in the 92nd minute to beat Everton. But I also got lucky when Florian Wirtz struck in stoppage time to secure a 3-1 Liverpool win over Crystal Palace and again when Mathias Jensen\u2019s 87th-minute consolation for Brentford meant a 2-1 victory for Manchester United.<\/p>\n
Every week of the season, four of us \u2014 a guest subscriber on rotation, an algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and me \u2014 have been predicting the Premier League results with varying degrees of success.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re also awarding a bonus point for any \u201cunique\u201d prediction; so those two spot-on scores (the wins for Liverpool and Manchester United) earned me four points apiece.<\/p>\n
It was far too little too late for me, though. I\u2019m already out of our title race. That looks like a straight between the subscribers and young Wilfred, who was left cursing his beloved Palace for conceding that stoppage-time goal at Anfield, denying him a precious four-pointer. Leeds\u2019 stoppage-time equaliser at Bournemouth was another sickener for him.<\/p>\n
It was a tough week for Wilfred and guest subscriber Andrew, a Leeds fan from Brooklyn, New York, but it looks like a straight fight between those two for the title. I\u2019m still well adrift \u2014 and the less said about the algorithm, the better.<\/p>\n
This week\u2019s guest subscriber is Adam, a 27-year-old Liverpool supporter from London. Good luck, Adam!<\/p>\n
Our subscriber\u2019s match of the weekManchester United vs Liverpool, Sunday, 3.30pm UK\/10.30am ET<\/p>\n
Adam says: \u201cA six-pointer in the battle for third. Liverpool fans are desperate to finally see a convincing big-game performance. United look better under Michael Carrick, but also aren\u2019t in scintillating form. With Mohamed Salah robbed by injury of the chance for farewell goals against a favourite foe, Liverpool will stumble to a cagey 1-1 draw.\u201d<\/p>\n
Manchester United 1-1 Liverpool<\/p>\n
Oli says: \u201cI\u2019m not sure I\u2019ve picked a 3-2 scoreline all season. So why now? Why this game between two teams whose meetings often fail to live up to the hype and who, entertainment-wise during 2025-26, have hardly been thrill-a-minute? I can\u2019t really explain. Maybe it\u2019s the fact that, beyond the obvious context of the rivalry, there\u2019s nothing more than Champions League qualification at stake \u2014 and even then, the stakes are pretty low, with the top five now well clear. Maybe it\u2019s the fact that there is firepower in both line-ups and that, personnel-wise or structure-wise, they both look a little vulnerable at the back. How did I decide which team would win? I tossed a coin. Heads for United, tails for Liverpool. It was heads.\u201d<\/p>\n
Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool<\/p>\n
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\n (Michael Regan\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n
Oli\u2019s other predictionsLeeds United vs Burnley<\/p>\n
Even now, unbeaten in five Premier League games and with only four defeats in their past 21 going back to the start of December, Leeds are still not guaranteed to stay up. They have also had to contend with the disappointment of last weekend\u2019s FA Cup semi-final defeat against Chelsea. But this looks like the perfect game for Leeds: at home to Burnley, who are already down and have now parted company with head coach Scott Parker<\/a>\u00a0as thoughts turn to next season back in the Championship. It\u2019s on a Friday night, under the floodlights, just the way Leeds like it.<\/p>\n Leeds 3-0 Burnley<\/p>\n Brentford vs West Ham<\/p>\n