{"id":572168,"date":"2026-05-11T09:48:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T09:48:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/572168\/"},"modified":"2026-05-11T09:48:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T09:48:29","slug":"top-4-nba-draft-picks-are-in-good-shape-but-everyone-else-not-so-much-takeaways","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/572168\/","title":{"rendered":"Top-4 NBA Draft picks are in good shape, but everyone else, not so much: Takeaways"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>CHICAGO \u2014 Twenty seconds. That\u2019s how long everyone in the NBA\u2019s draft lottery drawing room must wait for the selection of each new number. It is 20 seconds from the moment Matt Doria, an NBA lawyer, announces the number on one ping pong ball and until Shane Rogers, another of the league\u2019s attorneys, his back to the clear drum holding the fortunes of 15 NBA teams, raises his left arm, giving Doria the signal that he can stop the machine to draw another.<\/p>\n<p>It is an unusually tense moment. It lingers and stretches. In that interregnum, from one number to another, time can stand still.<\/p>\n<p>But Sunday afternoon, the drama was gone. Three ping pong balls jumped out of the Smartplay machine the NBA uses for the lottery and they were decisive \u2014 4, 2, and 1. As everyone waited for the fourth, whether they knew it or not, the No. 1 pick was already decided.<\/p>\n<p>The NBA lottery contains 1,001 different four-number combinations, and it splits up 1,000 of them among 14 teams. No team has more than a 14 percent chance to win the lottery and usually it comes down to the fourth and final number in the combination. That unlocks the lucky winner. This time, as everyone waited on the third floor of the Navy Pier building that juts out into Lake Michigan, there was only one way it could go. Any of 11 different ping pong balls could come out of that drum and each one would give the Washington Wizards the winning combination.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not clear if Michael Winger, the team\u2019s president of basketball operations, knew that as he waited on the answer to his prayers. But when a white ping ball came out with a black No. 13 stamped alongside it, he barely budged. The Wizards, the worst team in the NBA this season, and 20 games worse than any team over the last three seasons combined, had won the lottery.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-7269339 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/260510-Wizards-staff-scaled-e1778464464445.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2329\" height=\"1555\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>\n      The Washington Wizards receive the first pick during the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery on May 10, 2026 (Photo by Jeff Haynes\/NBAE via Getty Images)<\/p>\n<p>The victory was a karmic justice. In 2023, when Victor Wembanyama was the prize catch, the Wizards entered the final drawing with six outs, while the Spurs and four other teams had just one. San Antonio won, while a Wizards executive sat quietly in shock, digesting the misfortune.<\/p>\n<p>It was an apt finish to the last draft lottery of its kind. After a season so heavy on tanking that it pushed commissioner Adam Silver to insist on tanking reform, the tankers won. The Wizards will pick first in the NBA draft next month. The Utah Jazz, who were fined in February for their blatant tanking measures, got the No. 2 pick. The Memphis Grizzlies, who traded their top player and tried to deal their other star in a midseason teardown, will pick third. The Chicago Bulls, who decided to finally embrace tanking in the second half of the season after years of listless attempts at winning, drew the No. 4 pick.<\/p>\n<p>The lottery drawing doled out some drastic repercussions, too. The Indiana Pacers, fined in February too, lost their first-round pick because it fell out of the top-4. The Pacers traded the first to the LA Clippers in a deal for Ivica Zubac and attached livewire terms: if the pick landed between 5-10, it would go to the Clippers, otherwise they would keep it. Now, the Clippers will pick fifth next month.<\/p>\n<p>The Nets, again, drew a rough runout in the lottery. They stripped down the roster for a second consecutive season, finished with the third-worst record in the league, and will pick sixth. Nets owner Joe Tsai, the team\u2019s representative in the lottery drawing room, was despondent.<\/p>\n<p>Still, the lottery rewarded some long-time losers. The Bulls and Jazz haven\u2019t been above .500 since 2022. The Wizards haven\u2019t had a winning season since 2018, which was also the last time the team with the league\u2019s worst record won the lottery. That year, the Suns won under the last year of the previous lottery odds, just like the Wizards won in the swan song for this version.<\/p>\n<p>The new version of the lottery will be different. It will create its own issues. Several high-ranking team executives expected the incoming 3-2-1 system, if it is approved as is, to create more variance in the lottery results. The NBA will draw ping pong balls for 16 teams \u2014 giving two to the worst three teams, three to the next seven, two to the four losing teams from the Play-In Tournament, and one each to the losers of the 7-8 Play-In Tournament games. It could make it harder for teams to cycle out of their rebuilding phases.<\/p>\n<p>The way the lottery is run will likely change, too. Those 1,001 combinations won\u2019t be necessary since each team will just get a few ping pong balls to themselves. Some in the room wondered if it would be televised live next season, in addition to changes in format. The NHL has drawn applause for doing that with its lottery drawing the last few years.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe last hurrah,\u201d one executive said.<\/p>\n<p>The Jazz may have received the No. 2 pick in the lottery Sunday but its biggest win actually came last month. That\u2019s when the NBA held its tiebreaker drawing in Secaucus. The Jazz and Kings both won 22 games this season, the fourth-fewest in the league. While they each took an 11.5 percent chance of winning the top pick into the lottery, the NBA had to figure out which team would technically be fourth and fifth in the drawing order and which of the 1,001 combinations they would get.<\/p>\n<p>While it sounds like a formality, it actually has huge stakes. Last year, the Dallas Mavericks won their tiebreaker with the Chicago Bulls. The lottery combinations they earned got them the No. 1 pick.<\/p>\n<p>On April 20, in Secaucus, Doria placed three ping pong balls with each team\u2019s logo into a lottery machine. A ball with the Jazz logo came out.<\/p>\n<p>Austin Ainge, the Jazz president, was in the team\u2019s office waiting to find out the results. He had hoped to know within minutes. Instead, the delay became hours. When he did, he and Jazz were happy with just winning that drawing; it ensured that they would pick no lower than eighth and their first round pick would not convey to the Oklahoma City Thunder.<\/p>\n<p>Sunday afternoon, that win became even better. When the final number in the drawing for the No. 2 pick came out \u2014 14, 2, 6, 9 \u2014 Ainge fist pumped in celebration. John Kehriotis, a Kings minority owner, sat next to him and congratulated him. It was the first time the Jazz had moved up in the lottery with their own pick and their highest pick since they took Darrell Griffith second overall in the 1980 draft. The Jazz then also won the next lottery; 2, 8, 11, 7 was their combination.<\/p>\n<p>Ainge landed in the lottery room after a process of elimination. He had asked a number of front office staffers if they would go in and each one told him they had been in there when the team lost. \u201cSo it\u2019s me,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The Jazz land in a great spot. BYU wing AJ Dybantsa is expected to go first overall, there was a general agreement on that among a few team executives surveyed Sunday, but the choice at No. 2 is interesting.<\/p>\n<p>It does not seem certain that Kansas guard Darryn Peterson will go second. Several team executives said they would consider others for that pick. Duke forward Cam Boozer and UNC forward Caleb Wilson are also projected top-4 picks.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNot sure someone doesn\u2019t sneak into the top two,\u201d one executive said.<\/p>\n<p>Ainge wouldn\u2019t say how big his universe of options will be. But he was happy that the Jazz would get to add a promising prospect to what is now an increasingly talented core after Utah traded for All-Star big Jaren Jackson Jr. at the deadline to go along with Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George and Ace Bailey, last year\u2019s No. 5 pick.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ll see,\u201d Ainge said. \u201cIt\u2019s easier to narrow down to two than seven or eight. We got some work, though.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Kings will pick seventh, while Atlanta goes eighth (thanks to the Pelicans\u2019 pick it acquired last June), and the Mavericks had no lottery luck and will select ninth.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s one of the deepest drafts in recent years,\u201d new Mavericks team president Masai Ujiri said.<\/p>\n<p>The big cliff in the lottery seems to be after the top four. While Kingston Flemings, Darius Acuff and Keaton Wagler are projected to go mid-lottery and might be better prospects than usual at that part of the draft, the top four selections seem to be in another class.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA team in the top-4 would be stupid to trade out,\u201d one high-ranking team person said.<\/p>\n<p>That puts the Bulls in a good spot. They are the last team on the board before that cliff and know it. They have Bulls legend Toni Kuko\u010d and executive director of basketball ops Chigozie Umeadi to thank. They represented the Bulls on the dais and inside the lottery room.<\/p>\n<p>Bryson Graham, the team\u2019s new lead decision-maker, was ecstatic in the afterglow of the drawing. But he also said he\u2019d take his own approach to No. 4. He knows that there are top four players that seem to stand apart but he will still take his own approach.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s the consensus but I\u2019m not looking at it like that,\u201d Graham said. \u201cBut I\u2019m not looking at it like that because this is a deep draft. There are a lot of good players all throughout it. Look, Giannis went 15, Kawhi went 15, Devin Booker went 12, Maxey went 21. I could be wrong. I know receipts are important in the internet. I\u2019m like ratting off, you know, guys. Shai Gilgeous, what did he go 12? Let\u2019s not sit here and say because we have the fourth pick all of a sudden, this franchise, it\u2019s back. But this is a good opportunity to add high level talent to our group and build this thing and layer it appropriately.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s exciting. I can\u2019t believe it. I just got the job and I got the fourth pick. This is crazy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The biggest winner Sunday might have been the Clippers. They didn\u2019t move up from their draft slot, which was a relief because it\u2019s owned by the Thunder. So that deprived the Thunder of a top-4 lottery pick.<\/p>\n<p>More importantly, they won their side of the bet with the Pacers. Indiana had a 52.1 percent chance of landing a top-4 pick and keeping their choice. Instead, they dropped down a spot and now the Clippers get their pick. It will be a good way for the Clippers to continue their youth movement and add a promising young player to a roster in transition.<\/p>\n<p>Risabh Desai, the Clippers executive director basketball operations, represented the team in the drawing room and he brought the right lucky charm. He wore a spoke black suit and floral purple tie that hit the mark. It was also a way to honor Jerry West, the NBA legend and former Clippers executive who died in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>West gave the suit and tie to Desai as a gift. West was in his second season with the organization when he told Desai he needed to look better \u2014 well, he said something else, a little more West-like and a little more profane. West told his tailor, David \u00c9lev\u00e9e, to come to the office and measure Desai. \u00c9lev\u00e9e then made the suit (and, later, two more for Desai\u2019s wedding, also ordered by West).<\/p>\n<p>It was a reminder of West\u2019s benevolence and just the latest indication of the mark that he left on the organization. The No. 5 pick can go on West\u2019s legacy as an all-time executive, too.<\/p>\n<p>The Pacers lost their side of the bet and will give up the fifth overall pick, but they do get back control of their 2031 first-round pick. That becomes another asset they can use to improve a roster that took the Thunder to Game 7 of the Finals last time Tyrese Haliburton was there, and now has Zubac.<\/p>\n<p>If this is the last year of this lottery system, as it seems to be, the incoming tanking reform will force teams to reassess the value of first-round picks going forward. Team executives believe that it will cause more variance in the draft because the lottery odds will have shifted so dramatically. So, aside from whatever implications that has for tanking or its elimination, team executives believe that the new construct will make draft picks more valuable going forward because that variance will make it more likely to land a high pick.<\/p>\n<p>That will be something to watch going forward. While some teams will be hamstrung because the NBA imposed a new system after it had already traded first-round picks, the ones that do own their own in the future might be able to get more value for them in return.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"CHICAGO \u2014 Twenty seconds. That\u2019s how long everyone in the NBA\u2019s draft lottery drawing room must wait for&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":572169,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[462],"tags":[6620,5,2070,4,465,466,2858,9647],"class_list":["post-572168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl-draft","tag-chicago-bulls","tag-hockey","tag-memphis-grizzlies","tag-nhl","tag-nhl-draft","tag-nhl-entry-draft","tag-utah-jazz","tag-washington-wizards"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116555318459430770","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/572168","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=572168"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/572168\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/572169"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=572168"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=572168"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=572168"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}