{"id":578282,"date":"2026-05-19T00:24:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T00:24:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/578282\/"},"modified":"2026-05-19T00:24:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T00:24:18","slug":"red-wings-contract-projections-for-simon-edvinsson-other-rfas-the-hockey-writers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/578282\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Wings Contract Projections for Simon Edvinsson & Other RFAs – The Hockey Writers –"},"content":{"rendered":"

This offseason, the Detroit Red Wings only have one critical restricted free agent: Simon Edvinsson<\/a>. Otherwise, things should be relatively straightforward for Steve Yzerman and company with regard to RFAs.<\/p>\n

Like I\u2019ve done the past couple years (2024<\/a>, 2025<\/a>), I put together contract projections using a salary range statistical model I previously developed. Let\u2019s dive in.<\/p>\n

More Red Wings Offseason Analysis:<\/p>\n

Red Wings Set to Give Edvinsson a Big Raise<\/p>\n

Edvinsson\u2019s new contract will be the first major deal for the Red Wings since the NHL announced its new salary cap trajectory<\/a> \u2013 one that rises quite a bit over the next couple years, and will likely continue do so beyond that.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible that Edvinsson\u2019s new deal could end up looking relatively tame compared to that of Moritz Seider<\/a>, Lucas Raymond, and Dylan Larkin. It could also surpass them as the NHL enters a new era of spending.<\/p>\n

\"SimonSimon Edvinsson monitoring the defensive zone in a game for the Detroit Red Wings. (Amy Irvin<\/a> \/ The Hockey Writers)<\/p>\n

It certainly helps Edvinsson that he had a stellar year in 2025-26. He scored nine goals and finished with 25 points in 72 games, but the most impressive aspect of Edvinsson\u2019s season was his outstanding shutdown defense alongside Seider. The two were one of the best defensive pairs in the NHL \u2013 Edvinsson, in particular, excelled when it came to defensive zone denials, plus retrieving the puck and exiting the zone.<\/p>\n

Getting into the projections, my model suggested Brock Faber and K\u2019Andre Miller as Edvinsson\u2019s closest comparables, and I think this comparison benefits the Red Wings more so than their 23-year-old blueliner. Factoring in value to team and salary cap data, these comparables suggest that Edvinsson\u2019s next AAV (on a long-term contract) would be between $8.17 million and $9.26 million.<\/p>\n

Detroit may also want to keep Edvinsson\u2019s salary under Seider\u2019s $8.55 million AAV as to not upset the pecking order. That may prove difficult to accomplish given the rising salary cap, though.<\/p>\n

On Edvinsson\u2019s side, it\u2019s likely that his agent J.P Barry leverages different players and their recent contracts as anchoring points in negotiations with the Red Wings. I\u2019m talking about Seider, Thomas Harley, Luke Hughes, and Lane Hutson. After all, Edvinsson has the same high-draft pick pedigree as Seider and Hughes, plus Owen Power as well. With these players as comparables, the long-term contract AAV would be closer to an $8.85 to $10.59 million range.<\/p>\n

There will certainly be disagreement in these negotiations, but that\u2019s also how these things work. Edvinsson is valuable to the Red Wings organization and his agent knows that. However, it\u2019s also true that the defenseman isn\u2019t a 50- (or 60-, or 70-) point producer.<\/p>\n

Given these inputs, my projection is that Edvinsson signs an eight-year deal with an $8.5 million AAV \u2013 just a hair below Seider. This is the same deal that Faber signed back in late 2024.<\/p>\n

Other Red Wings RFAs<\/p>\n

Now the less-contentious part. Detroit\u2019s other RFAs played in Grand Rapids this season and there shouldn\u2019t be too much drama around their next contracts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In fact, I think the contract decisions for all of these players comes down to whether the Red Wings want to tender them a qualifying offer\u2014a one-year deal that comes with a slight raise from the prior year\u2014or not.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As a refresher, players can either accept the offer or hold out for a better one. And if the Red Wings decline to issue a qualifying offer to a player, they become an unrestricted free agent.<\/p>\n

Below are Detroit\u2019s remaining RFAs and their qualifying offer projections:<\/p>\n

LW Carter Mazur \u2013 Qualified at $874,125<\/p>\n

RW Jakub Rychlovsky \u2013 Qualified at $813,750<\/p>\n

C Amadeus Lombardi \u2013 Qualified at $813,750<\/p>\n

C Wojciech Stachowiak \u2013 Qualified at $813,750<\/p>\n

LD William Wallinder Wallinder \u2013 Qualified at $874,125<\/p>\n

G Sebastian Cossa \u2013 Qualified at $874,125<\/p>\n

G Carter Gylander \u2013 Qualified at 813,750<\/p>\n

C Alexandre Doucet \u2013 Non-tendered<\/p>\n

LW Michael Milne \u2013 Non-tendered<\/p>\n

Five of the players listed above\u2014Mazur, Doucet, Rychlovsky, Stachowiak, and Gylander\u2014have arbitration rights. And of those five, the only one who has some leverage is Mazur, who appeared in eight games for the Red Wings and whose qualifying offer amount is lower than his 2025-26 cap hit (due to entry-level signing bonuses). That said, I don\u2019t expect there to be much\u2014if any\u2014confrontation. Mazur will more than likely be in Detroit full-time next season and will be receiving an NHL salary, rather than the ~$80,000 AHL salary he was issued in 2025-26.<\/p>\n

Final Word<\/p>\n

If these contracts were to be signed as is, then the Red Wings would have $84,062,792 committed to 11 forwards, eight defensemen, and two goalies next season. That would leave $19,937,208 in cap space to address Detroit\u2019s remaining needs. Of course, players could be jettisoned from the roster, too, creating even more cap space.<\/p>\n

The main wild card here is Edvinsson. The NHL\u2019s new salary cap era could result in a more lucrative contract for the blueliner. However, the Red Wings have flexibility to absorb a higher cap hit than projected, if needed.<\/p>\n

Data courtesy of All Three Zones<\/a>, HockeyStatCards<\/a>, MoneyPuck<\/a>, NHL.com<\/a>, Natural Stat Trick<\/a>, and PuckIQ<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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