Cale Makar may or may not be on the ice for Sunday\u2019s Game 3 in Vegas. Whether he is or isn\u2019t, the Avalanche have enough star power to come back against the Golden Knights.<\/p>\n
They just need that star power to shine a lot brighter. <\/p>\n
\u201c(Makar\u2019s) been in the gym strengthening and testing it on the ice,\u201d Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said on Saturday afternoon. \u201cCale is the only person that knows when he\u2019s good enough to play, that\u2019s why it\u2019s his decision. We know what the injury is, we know what he\u2019s dealing with, we know that we\u2019re going to expect him back at some point, but you got to get to a level of being comfortable with what you\u2019re dealing with, and the pain tolerance, and depending on what he\u2019s dealing with, he will tell us when he\u2019s ready to play, so it\u2019s just really as simple as that.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo one can go into Cale\u2019s body and feel what he\u2019s feeling, so when he feels like he can do all the things he needs to be able to do on the ice to play, then he\u2019s going to make the decision to play.\u201d<\/p>\n
There\u2019s no one in the Avalanche lineup that can replace what Makar does on a nightly basis, but this isn\u2019t the Colorado Makars. He\u2019s a huge part of this team, but he\u2019s not the only reason they won the President\u2019s Trophy. They\u2019ve got a perennial Hart Trophy candidate on their roster, a 100-point winger, another 30-goal scoring center, and plenty of other talented players that can help make up the difference in the short term until Makar returns to the lineup.<\/p>\n
The problem is the Avalanche aren\u2019t getting enough from their top players this series, and at times, throughout the entire postseason.<\/p>\n
Given what the playoffs are, a quick sprint to the finish line, it can create some statistical anomalies. When players get hot, they get really hot and can ride that hot streak to the end of the postseason. Look at Alex Newhook in Montreal. He\u2019s on a heater right now and nearly everything is going right for him, as evidenced by his 24.1% shooting percentage.<\/p>\n
The opposite is happening to some of Colorado\u2019s top players. We\u2019re 11 games into the postseason run for the Avalanche and Nathan MacKinnon, one of the best players in the world, has not scored a goal at 5-on-5 despite 27 shots on goal and 63 shot attempts. Brock Nelson also has not scored a 5-on-5 goal all postseason, while Martin Necas, Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin and Nazem Kadri have all been held to just one. <\/p>\n
Most of those players have picked up points, whether it be on the power play or with the net empty on either side, so it\u2019s not like they\u2019re not contributing at all, but with power plays getting harder and harder to come by, scoring at even strength is paramount at this point in the playoffs.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/05_22_26-avs-knights-07024-1024x508.jpg\")
Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) takes a shot on goal as Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Shea Theodore (27) defends during the third period of Game 2 of the Western Conference finals Friday, May 22, 2026, at Ball Arena in Denver. (The Gazette, Christian Murdock)<\/p>\n
Bad luck plays a role in some of it. The sheer quantity and quality of chances that MacKinnon has generated over the course of the 11 games put him at 2.7 individual expected goals at 5-on-5. Considering none of those shots have entered the net, you could say he\u2019s had a bit of bad luck.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not the case for all of those players, though. Necas has generated just 1.07 individual expected goals at 5-on-5, so his one goal is pretty representative of what he\u2019s generated when he has shot the puck. Lehkonen and Nichushkin have generated a bit more for themselves, but not by much.<\/p>\n
The underlying numbers for Colorado\u2019s best players aren\u2019t bad, but when you\u2019re down 2-0 in the Western Conference final, those numbers can only go so far.<\/p>\n
At some point, pucks need to start entering the net.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe got to find a way to produce, right?\u201d Bednar said. \u201cPart of the reason why their top guys are producing is we\u2019re giving them those easy opportunities. They\u2019re not giving those to us\u2026If you look at expected goals-for percentage, (MacKinnon\u2019s) numbers are great. And then you put him with Lehky and Landeskog, and they\u2019re off the charts. I think they were 86% yesterday in the game together, when they were together, so it\u2019s not like they\u2019re not creating looks, but we got to find a way to make it a little more difficult on Hart and breaking his eyesight, and keep going to war in the low slot area, try to pick up some chances.\u201d<\/p>\n
MacKinnon and Necas have played all season together, but against the Golden Knights, it hasn\u2019t worked. They\u2019ve started each of the first two games on a line with each other, but due to their struggles, Bednar has had to break them up in both games. Colorado\u2019s best 5-on-5 looks have come off the sticks of guys like Kadri, Ross Colton, Logan O\u2019Connor, and Gabriel Landeskog, who has probably been the most consistent forward in terms of production on the team.<\/p>\n
Through two games against Vegas, with the numbers publicly available on Natural Stat Trick, seven Avalanche forwards have generated more individual expected goals for themselves than MacKinnon at 5-on-5. Nine have generated more than Necas. With the margin for error as thin as it is right now, it will be borderline impossible for the Avalanche to come back in this series if those two, among others, can\u2019t generate more offensively.<\/p>\n
Friday was as close to a must-win as you could get for the Avalanche, but Sunday\u2019s Game 3 is an absolute must-win. And the Avalanche will need their best players to be their best players if they plan on making this a series.<\/p>\n
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