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Credit: Brian Johnson<\/p>\nNot the trade Red Wings fans were waiting for. With the Dylan Larkin drama still looming, there is still undoubtedly a priority number one in Detroit for the time being. That being said, if there was a priority number two, it was Sebastian Cossa, and Detroit handled it by trading him away for the 23rd overall pick in the draft.<\/p>\n
With the pick, the Red Wings took J.P. Hurlbert out of Kamloops. I wouldn\u2019t blame any Red Wings fan for not being up to date with the player because the thought of a first round pick has been out of the picture for so long this season.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s the simple question: is this someone to be excited about? Could Hurlbert be a difference-maker at the NHL level?<\/p>\n
Player Profile<\/p>\n
Credit: Brian Johnson<\/p>\n
Position: LW<\/p>\n
HT\/WT: 6\u20190\u2033, 183lbs<\/p>\n
Player Comparison: Jack Quinn <\/p>\n
Detroit\u2019s clearly grown some affection for drafting out of the WHL. Out of their last three first round picks, two have come out of the WHL. After years of trying to make players out of Sweden work at the pros, the scouting has shifted, and so far it\u2019s looked good for Carter Bear. So how has it looked for Hurlbert to this point?<\/p>\n
In his draft year, Hurlbert put up 42 goals, 55 assists, and 97 points in 68 games. The production alone should jump off the page for Red Wings fans familiar with Carter Bear\u2019s similar 82 points in 56 games during his draft year. The production is similar, but the play style isn\u2019t, and that will be what makes or breaks Hurlbert as a prospect.<\/p>\n
Hurlbert is an offensive dynamo rather than a workhorse. His size, speed, and defensive game are all on the lower end of his skill set. He makes up for that with a great release, solid hands, and great vision and playmaking. It\u2019s certainly an upside swing from Detroit, so after watching some film, let me do my best to give my take on the player.<\/p>\n
Pros<\/p>\n
The biggest strength for Hurlbert is undoubtedly the shot. While not a direct comparison, you can see the similarities to the way that Connor B\u00e9dard releases the puck. Hurlbert can change the angle of his shot well, and his wrist and snap shots both get off quickly with good power. Typically, smaller prospects who don\u2019t have the muscle can struggle to get power behind their shots, and Hurlbert doesn\u2019t. It\u2019s a good foundation, but not his entire toolset.<\/p>\n
Hurlbert pairs the threat to shoot with an above-average playmaking bag. He\u2019s far from my favorite distributor in the class, but there\u2019s no reason he won\u2019t translate to a good NHL playmaker given his skill set. Hurlbert has great vision and a level of deception to him that can help him make those highlight-reel passes.<\/p>\n
Finally, Hurlbert has really good hands both in tight and in space. He\u2019s able to take on players one-on-one at a high clip despite being at a physical disadvantage. Hurlbert is automatic near the net, using the threat to shoot to open the goalie up for dekes. Even in space, he\u2019s able to make small adjustments quickly to open up a shooting or passing lane.<\/p>\n
Offensively, I think Hurlbert is a fairly complete player. Seeing as he just turned 18 in April, his past season being almost entirely as a seventeen-year-old is really impressive. I don\u2019t think a 50-60 point guy is out of the question with Hurlbert; it\u2019s just going to take some really solid development next season.<\/p>\n
Cons<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, the list is longer than I want it to be. I understand there\u2019s no perfect prospect in the 20s, especially when Detroit needs an upside swing, but there\u2019s some serious cause for concern here. This is the first pick in a long time where I don\u2019t think the floor is a bottom-six guy. There is a non-zero chance Hurlbert doesn\u2019t get much serious run in the NHL.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s start with the biggest one for me, the skating. Hurlbert doesn\u2019t take enough strides, nor is he quick enough to create any separation at the NHL level. A lot of his production in Kamloops involved him getting the first step on defencemen, and unfortunately, that\u2019s not a given going forward with his speed.<\/p>\n
Paired with that, there\u2019s a lack of attention to detail on defense. I don\u2019t want to use the term \u201cfloats,\u201d but he certainly doesn\u2019t apply himself much defensively. At best in the NHL, I could see him being a passable forward in his own end, which isn\u2019t a bad thing, but he lacks the instinct to really stop plays in his own end. There are good signs in that department though, as Hurlbert did earn a role on the penalty kill in Kamloops.<\/p>\n
Finally, there isn\u2019t that Detroit engine they\u2019ve been building around. The thing that surprised me most about the pick is that I wouldn\u2019t call Hurlbert an elite competitor at all. He depends on his skill to break open games, but the toolkit doesn\u2019t exist much beyond that. There\u2019s a lack of impressive physicals across the board, be it in speed, size, or physicality, and the effort doesn\u2019t exist to offset that.<\/p>\n
What Could J.P. Hurlbert Be?<\/p>\n
Absolute Ceiling: Clayton Keller<\/p>\n
Realistic Comparable: Trevor Moore<\/p>\n
Floor: Robby Fabbri<\/p>\n
The player comparable I saw the most was Kyle Connor, and I want to shut that down pretty fast. Unfortunately, Hurlbert doesn\u2019t have the same speed that Connor has mixed in with his skill set, or I\u2019d be much higher on him. Though, I do think the absolute ceiling is a 30 goal, 80 point winger who runs a power play well. The odds on Hurlbert hitting that, unfortunately, aren\u2019t super high.<\/p>\n
I could see him being more of a Trevor Moore of seasons past. Effective 20-30 goal guy who can punch in around 50 points for you in a power play or depth role. Pure skill offensive guys like that aren\u2019t nothing, so I certainly don\u2019t say that in a bad way.<\/p>\n
Though the concern is that the hometown kid will just end up being an ineffective scoring threat who needs too many touches to be worth it. As disappointing as that sounds, though, I think the skill is higher than the Berggrens and Lombardis of days past, where he is unlikely to translate at all.<\/p>\n
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