{"id":642867,"date":"2026-08-14T15:15:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T15:15:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/642867\/"},"modified":"2026-08-14T15:15:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T15:15:17","slug":"can-max-shabanov-can-follow-jonathan-marchessaults-footsteps-minnesota-wild","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/642867\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Max Shabanov Can Follow Jonathan Marchessault’s Footsteps? – Minnesota Wild"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tThe Minnesota Wild are about a month from training camp opening. Time is running out for teams to make any sort of impact offseason deals, and free agents are more or less picked over. With every day that passes, the Wild are sending the signal that they’re confident opening the season with Maksim Shabanov<\/a> occupying the vacant Mats Zuccarello<\/a> spot.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIt’s easy to wonder why the Wild seem poised to put a 5-foot-8 winger who mustered only 18 points in 44 games as a rookie in position to be Kirill Kaprizov<\/a>‘s wingman. If the New York Islanders saw Shabanov for a full season, then didn’t even tender him a qualifying offer to retain his rights, what does that say about him? Furthermore, Shabanov is 25 — six months older than Matt Boldy<\/a>! — so how much better can the Wild reasonably expect him to get?\n<\/p>\n

\n\tFortunately, there’s a best-case scenario to be Shabanov’s guiding star through this experiment, and his name is Jonathan Marchessault<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tOnce upon a time, Marchessault was a small late-bloomer, looking for his chance to latch on with an NHL team. After finishing fourth in the AHL with 67 points for the Syracuse Crunch, he got his break as a part-time player with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2015-16 season. He had limited success, scoring seven goals and 18 points in 45 games as a 24-year-old rookie.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tLike Shabanov, Marchessault also became a free agent after his rookie year, having not accrued enough NHL games for the Lightning to retain his rights. The Florida Panthers took a flier on him with a two-year deal at a bargain-basement $750K cap hit. The rest is history. Marchessault broke out with a 30-goal, 51-point season, then went to<\/a> the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft. During his time as a Knight, Marchessault averaged 30.6 goals and 66.5 points per 82 games, thriving as a top-six player on a Stanley Cup-winning team.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tHow did Marchessault go from an obscure NHL\/AHL tweener to a consistent 20-goal player? Talent finally met opportunity. It’s safe to say that Marchessault had the goods, being a dominant player in the AHL for multiple years. But Tampa’s mid-2010s team was deep with young forwards, so there was no room for upward mobility. During his rookie season, Marchessault’s most frequent linemates were fourth-line mainstay Brian Boyle<\/a> and future fourth-line mainstay Vladislav Namestnikov<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThat changed drastically in Florida. Suddenly, Marchessault’s linemates were Jaromir Jagr<\/a> and Sasha Barkov<\/a>. And when Marchessault wasn’t on the top line, he was still playing with top-six caliber forwards in Vincent Trocheck<\/a>, Nick Bjugstad<\/a>, Reilly Smith<\/a>, and Thomas Vanek<\/a>. It also helped that Marchessault got a prominent power play role with minutes alongside Jagr and Barkov.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tShabanov is primed to get a similar upgrade in the quality of his linemates. With the Islanders, he played most frequently with rookie Calum Ritchie<\/a>, aging depth veteran Jean-Gabriel Pageau<\/a>, and another youngster in Emil Heineman<\/a>. Ryan Hartman<\/a> may not be the No. 1 Center Wild fans hope to see on Opening Night, but he’s an upgrade from Pageau. And of course, Kaprizov’s a star who is capable of raising his linemates’ ceiling substantially. Just ask Hartman.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe opportunity is there, but what about the talent? There’s also reason to be optimistic here. Just as Marchessault dominated one of the best leagues in the world before getting his shot, Shabanov was a top player in the KHL. His final campaign saw him finish third in the league in points (67), and it was no fluke. The year before, Shabanov was ninth in goals (25) and 16th in points (50). He led his team in points in both seasons, suggesting that he was the driving force, not a passenger.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIt’s also worth noting that while the overall point totals look paltry, Shabanov and Marchessault had decent (and similar) showings on a per-minute basis as rookies.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tHere’s how the two stacked up:\n<\/p>\n

\n\t5-on-5 Scoring Stats, Rookie Seasons:\n<\/p>\n

\n\tMarchessault (2015-16): 0.44 goals per hour; 1.61 points per hour
Shabanov (2025-26): 0.59 goals per hour; 1.55 points per hour\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWe aren’t talking about setting the world on fire offensively, admittedly. The average NHLer in 2025-26 averaged 0.50 goals and 1.35 points per hour at 5-on-5. But Shabanov was an above-average producer while being in a more defensive role. Shabanov had the third-highest percentage of defensive zone starts on the Islanders, and ranked in the bottom half of the league among forwards in offensive zone starts.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tNow he’s set to replace Zuccarello, who had the highest percentage of offensive zone starts on the Wild, playing alongside Kaprizov, who was second.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAnd you guessed it, a huge leap in offensive zone starts also helped spark Marchessault’s breakout. He went from starting just 27.0% of his shifts in the offensive zone to a whopping 39.5%. Add in Barkov as a regular linemate, and we can see how Florida was able to squeeze every ounce of production out of Marchessault.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIf Shabanov assumes the Zuccarello role, the best thing he can do to help himself is shoot often. The biggest difference between Marchessault and Shabanov as rookies was their ability to create their own shot. Marchessault averaged 9.2 shots per hour at 5-on-5, which is a borderline elite rate. Meanwhile, Shabanov was barely above league average, at 5.6 shots per hour.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWhile no one would have called Zuccarello a volume shooter, he was able to get open enough to average 6.0 shots per hour or more at 5-on-5 during most of his run with Kaprizov. And he especially knew how to pull the trigger with the man advantage throughout most of his tenure.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tMats Zuccarello Shots Per Hour, Power Play, 2020-21 to 2025-26:\n<\/p>\n

\n\t2020-21: 12.8 (ranked third on Wild)
2021-22: 12.0 (sixth)
2022-23: 11.2 (seventh)
2023-24: 15.2 (fourth)
2024-25: 9.4 (eighth)
2025-26: 8.6 (seventh)\n<\/p>\n

\n\tZuccarello clearly understood the assignment. Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala<\/a>, and Boldy may have been the first options on the power play, but that never stopped Zuccarello from taking the shot when he had a chance. Kaprizov, Boldy, and Quinn Hughes<\/a> will continue to be the dominant forces on the top power play unit next season, but Shabanov can’t let that make him passive. He needs to be ready and available as a release valve who can put the puck in the net when called upon.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tCan Shabanov display that mentality? He didn’t in his rookie year, but it’s fairly common for rookies to defer shots. The good news is that he gradually took more and more shots as he ascended into KHL stardom, then broke through in his age-23 season.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tMax Shabanov, All Situations Shots on Goal Per Hour, By Year, KHL<\/a>:\n<\/p>\n

\n\t2021-22: 6.40
2022-23: 6.84
2023-24: 7.07
2024-25: 9.19\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAs Shabanov found his footing among the physical rigors of (arguably) the second-best league in the world, he shot at a decent volume. Kaprizov is always going to be Option A for the Wild’s offense, but if Shabanov can shape himself into a shooting threat — say 7-to-8 shots per hour in all situations — that will go a long way toward him establishing himself as Kaprizov’s new wingman.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tMarchessault is a lofty measuring stick for someone like Shabanov. We’re talking about a 40-goal scorer with two more 30-goal seasons under his belt and a Conn Smythe Trophy. There are, of course, a pile of small, late-blooming wingers who didn’t get a regular role for every Marchessault, Yanni Gourde<\/a>, or Martin St. Louis<\/a> who exploded into stardom. It’s irresponsible to mention those names without also pointing out that Nikita Gusev<\/a>, Mark Arcobello<\/a>, and Andrew Ebbett<\/a> could dominate the KHL and AHL, but not stick in the NHL.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tStill, Shabanov is on the verge of an opportunity few late-blooming prospects rarely get: The chance to prove they can’t play. Like Marchessault a decade ago, the Wild are ready to put Shabanov in a spot where he’ll get an elite teammate and offensive-oriented minutes. It’s the perfect environment for Shabanov to prove himself as a top-six winger. Whether or not he has what it takes to be the next Marchessault remains to be seen, but all the ingredients are there.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Minnesota Wild are about a month from training camp opening. Time is running out for teams to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":642868,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5118],"tags":[5,781,35971,161,38,5280,4,162],"class_list":["post-642867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-minnesota-wild","tag-hockey","tag-jonathan-marchessault","tag-max-shabanov","tag-minnesota","tag-minnesota-wild","tag-minnesotawild","tag-nhl","tag-wild"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/117094522790900213","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/642867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=642867"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/642867\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/642868"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=642867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=642867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=642867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}