{"id":684777,"date":"2026-10-12T05:48:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T05:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/684777\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T05:48:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T05:48:18","slug":"matthew-schaefers-start-to-2026-27-what-the-numbers-say-through-5-games","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/684777\/","title":{"rendered":"Matthew Schaefer\u2019s start to 2026-27: What the numbers say through 5 games"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yes, it\u2019s five games. Nobody should be engraving trophies in mid-October. But five games is enough to see how a coaching staff feels about a player, and the Islanders clearly feel great about Matthew Schaefer<\/a>. The 19-year-old hasn\u2019t scored yet, and honestly, that\u2019s the least interesting thing about his start.<\/p>\n

That Workload Is No Joke<\/p>\n

Start with the ice time, because it\u2019s a little ridiculous. Schaefer is playing 25:27 a night. Adam Pelech, the next-busiest Islanders defenseman, sits at 20:36. That\u2019s a gap of almost five minutes, which in hockey terms is a canyon.<\/p>\n

Even strength<\/p>\n

106:28<\/p>\n

21:18<\/p>\n

Power play<\/p>\n

20:01<\/p>\n

04:00<\/p>\n

Shorthanded<\/p>\n

00:45<\/p>\n

00:09<\/p>\n

The message is pretty clear. He runs the power play and he\u2019s the top option at even strength. The penalty kill is the one job he\u2019s being spared, and that\u2019s the right call. Pelech, Ryan Pulock and Logan Stanley can eat those minutes. There\u2019s no reason to burn a teenager\u2019s legs blocking shots when he\u2019s the best puck mover on the roster.<\/a><\/p>\n

The Islanders Are A Different Team With Him On The Ice<\/p>\n

This is where the start goes from \u201cnice\u201d to \u201cwow.\u201d At 5-on-5, the Islanders have 96 shot attempts and have given up 75 with Schaefer out there. That\u2019s a plus-21 differential. Second on the team? Ondrej Palat at plus-7. It isn\u2019t close.<\/p>\n

His shot attempt share is 56.1 percent, best on the roster, and the relative number is 15.9 percent. Put simply, the Isles tilt the ice with him and get tilted without him. The NHL\u2019s official statistics<\/a> also show New York scoring 66.6 percent of the 5-on-5 goals during his shifts.<\/p>\n

And He\u2019s Not Getting Easy Minutes<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the part that deserves more attention. Only 17.7 percent of his 5-on-5 shifts start in the offensive zone. A full 41.8 percent start in his own end. That is not how teams usually handle a young offensive defenseman. Most get the cushy shifts. Schaefer gets the hard ones<\/a>, then drags the play up the ice anyway.<\/p>\n

The score splits back it up. When the game is tied, his shot share is a silly 70.9 percent. It stays above 50 when the Isles are behind. It dips to 42.5 with a lead, but that\u2019s a team habit of sitting back, and it\u2019s hard to pin on one player.<\/p>\n

No Goals? Give It A Week<\/p>\n

Four assists, zero goals. On paper, that looks quiet. It isn\u2019t. Schaefer has 19 shots on goal, which leads the team. Bo Horvat has four goals on 17 shots. Schaefer has more pucks on net and nothing to show for it.<\/p>\n

That won\u2019t last. His individual shot attempt rate at 5-on-5 is 15.62 per 60 minutes, a number that would look normal on a winger. A defenseman who shoots that much and starts most shifts in his own zone is going to score. The zero is bad luck, and bad luck runs out.<\/p>\n

Where The Points Came FromTwo even-strength assists, one primary and one secondaryTwo power-play assists, both primary0.80 points per game6.00 power-play points per 60 minutes<\/p>\n

The Isles have four power-play goals with him on the ice, and he set up two of them directly. Horvat has three of those goals. That pairing already looks like the engine of the top unit, and it should only get better.<\/p>\n

Why The Box Score Lies<\/p>\n

This is a good reminder that goals and assists tell maybe half the story. Shot volume, ice time and power-play role are what serious fans look at when sizing up a defenseman<\/a>, whether the topic is award races or points totals. The same thinking carries over to markets, and any solid NHL betting guide<\/a> makes the point that reading these numbers well is about skill and homework, not hunches.<\/p>\n

A line of 0-4-4 sounds fine. A line of 0-4-4 with 19 shots, 25 minutes a night and a 56 percent shot share sounds like a player about to go on a run. The second description is the accurate one.<\/p>\n

Okay, It\u2019s Not All Perfect<\/p>\n

Time for the cold water. Schaefer has nine giveaways in five games, or 4.24 per 60 minutes. That\u2019s the most among Islanders defensemen so far, and it\u2019s too many.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a fair excuse, though. The puck is on his stick more than anyone\u2019s, and players who carry it that much will cough it up sometimes. He\u2019s also got seven takeaways, which is a lot for a blueliner. Call it the cost of doing business. A safer, quieter version of this player would turn it over less and help the team far less.<\/p>\n

The physical side is light, with two hits and four blocks. That\u2019s fine. He defends with his feet and his stick, and nobody should want him playing any other way.<\/p>\n

The Scoreboard Hasn\u2019t Caught Up<\/p>\n

One odd detail: for all that territorial dominance, the Isles are dead even in goals at even strength with him out there, five for and five against. His plus-minus is zero.<\/p>\n

That feels like a number waiting to move. His on-ice shooting percentage at 5-on-5 is 9.3, so nothing strange is propping him up or holding him down. If the Isles keep outshooting teams by this much during his shifts, the goals will come.<\/p>\n

The Short VersionUsage: 25:27 per game, tops on the team by a milePossession: 56.1 percent shot share, plus-21 at 5-on-5Deployment: more than twice as many defensive-zone starts as offensive-zone startsOffense: team-high 19 shots, four assists, still waiting on goal number oneConcern: nine giveawaysWhat Happens From Here<\/p>\n

Some of this will cool off. A 15.9 percent relative shot share doesn\u2019t survive an 82-game season, and it would be silly to expect it to. The workload is a different story. That\u2019s a choice by the coaches, and nothing in the data gives them a reason to change it.<\/p>\n

Two weeks in, the Islanders are treating a teenager like a true number-one defenseman, and he\u2019s playing like one. The first goal is coming. At 19 shots in five games, it might already be overdue.<\/p>\n

\"\"Add us as a preferred source on GoogleFollow<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Yes, it\u2019s five games. Nobody should be engraving trophies in mid-October. But five games is enough to see…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":684778,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5110],"tags":[5,122,3328,159,5190,5189,4],"class_list":["post-684777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-york-islanders","tag-hockey","tag-islanders","tag-new-york","tag-new-york-islanders","tag-newyork","tag-newyorkislanders","tag-nhl"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/117426369897154046","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684777","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=684777"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684777\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/684778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=684777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=684777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=684777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}