Fantasy Football Guide to the Atlanta Falcons

What’s going on fellow dirty birds and visitors to this sub! As a big player in Fantasy Football, one thing I think is missing a lot is a fan’s perspective on their own players and teams that could help in drafts especially. Sometimes I hear people talking about our players and feel like they really miss the mark. So I wanted to write a guide to our team from a fantasy perspective in case any of you are interested, and especially if people are perusing our sub looking for insights. I’d appreciate it if you can offer me your thoughts and suggestions, and I’ll edit my post and give you the credit for the insight if I add it in. This is a long post, but there is a TL;DR at the end.

# Quick rundown of the 2021 season:

The Falcons were plain just not good by any stretch of the imagination being back of the league in most categories offensively. Fortunately, this still produced some good fantasy contributors in the form of **Kyle Pitts**, **Cordarrelle Patterson**, and of course **Younghoe Koo**. We were held back by lackluster OL play, big deficiencies in the roster, and let’s be honest, some growing pains going from an old roster/system to the one that our FO wants to implement.

# 2022 Outlook

**Offensive Line:**

PFF rank 2022: 28th

We have not fundamentally upgraded our OL. To be frank, we don’t have money to spend here (until 2023 where we get $100M in cap space). We did draft OG Justin Shaffer out of UGA in the 6th round, but otherwise the group projects to be similar as last year, which *could* spell bad news for the team offense overall. We can hope that another year in the system will help the OL progress from almost worst in the league to maybe below average. This OL has actually shown flashes of good run-blocking, which Arthur Smith wants to keep improving. This could be the biggest limiting factor for our offense as we have some really impressive pieces in our receiving group.

**QB:**

As everyone knows, our longtime leader and greatest falcon ever **Matt Ryan** left for the Colts where I believe he’ll find great success finally having an OL and run game that he’s rarely had in Atlanta. Don’t want to spend much time here, but despite being 37, I think he’ll end the year as a fantasy QB2.

Coming in on a 2 year contract is **Marcus Mariota** along with rookie **Desmond Ridder** (3rd round, Cincinnati).

**Marcus Mariota, QB**

FantasyPros ADP: Undrafted (QB31)

So far, this doesn’t prove to be a QB competition with Mariota reportedly slotting quite easily as the starter. You may wonder where Mariota has been all this time. He started out iffy in Tennessee despite being drafted #2 overall. He’s big and tall (6′ 4″ 222 lbs) with great speed (4.52 40 time), but was benched for Tannehill (by then-OC Arthur Smith who is our current HC) and then moved to the Raiders as a backup QB. In TEN, his best year was his sophomore year, throwing for 3,426 yards and 26 TDs & 9 INTs. The years after were considerably worse. He’s had a pretty gnarly injury history, but some have said his time as a backup QB on the Raiders has helped him fully recover and maybe he’ll be successful in Atlanta. He’s surely here to revitalize his career, so his success is still a question mark at this point. He’s not really draftable unless you see him as a lottery ticket backup QB who could pan out. In 2QB or Superflex leagues, he could be worth it as your 3rd/4th QB on the roster. He wasn’t drafted #2 overall for nothing. And his mobility could hide deficiencies in the OL that Matt couldn’t overcome. For the record, the last time he played a full game, it was in 2020 and he scored 26 fantasy pts (primarily because of his 88 rushing yards). In the first preseason game, he successfully led a drive for a touchdown before sitting for the rest of the game. His mobility was on display – probably a bit too much. He puts it out on the line, but we can almost be sure of some injury risk simply because of this. Still, it shows his rushing upside is still intact giving great fantasy value.

Highlights:

[Mariota throws a deep ball to Pitts in camp](https://twitter.com/dennismcook/status/1555249712302673920?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

[Mariota scrambles for the score in preseason game 1](https://twitter.com/AtlantaFalcons/status/1558220061814423562?s=20&t=dzpk55KGaFl8SuoOYl37AQ)

​

**Desmond Ridder, QB**

FantasyPros ADP: Undrafted (QB35)

For sure we need to expect Desmond Ridder will start at some point during the season. Quite frankly, HC Arthur Smith needs to know what he has in Ridder, who so far appears to have a veteran mindset (and looks like a WWII vet) and leadership quality, a true drive for improvement, a great personality, and honestly blistering speed (4.52 40 time – same as Mariota) for a QB. His knocks are some mechanics, arm strength, and accuracy issues, which are hopefully things he can improve on. He’s not quite our “QB of the future” yet, but he certainly wants to be, even proclaiming he’s going to deliver us a Super Bowl. Overall, his mental game and some measurables are extremely impressive (he’s got 10″ hands – way bigger than Kenny Pickett’s), and typically those things you cannot teach. I think he has a real chance in Atlanta and he comes into a pretty good situation, learning alongside the rest of the team without being thrown in with the wolves. As I’ve mentioned, we have to see him play more than a few times this year (likely in the back half unless Mariota gets injured), because if we end up getting a high pick, we will need to decide whether to go QB in 2023. Fantasy-wise, I don’t think he’s draftable either, except – like Mariota – as a bit of a lotto ticket. Mariota has much more value as he can start right away, but Ridder is a true lottery ticket as we have no idea what he’s going to bring. I’d actually put him below QB35 whereas I think Mariota could be a QB25 around Zach Wilson and David Mills.

Highlights:

[Beautiful ball up high leading London in camp](https://twitter.com/FalcoholicKevin/status/1553400093167992832?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

[Great anticipation on stop/go crossing route to Franks in camp](https://twitter.com/FalcoholicKevin/status/1554480695342501889?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

[Ridder scrambles and throws game-winning TD on the run on 4th and 9 in preseason game 1](https://twitter.com/AtlantaFalcons/status/1558258176730058754?s=20&t=dzpk55KGaFl8SuoOYl37AQ)

​

**WR**:

Our WR situation last year was really bad with Russell Gage (left for TB) and Olamide Zacchaeus being our only guys last year. I’m going to avoid talking about Kyle Pitts here because while Pitts is really a Megatron-esque receiver, he’s still technically a TE, so I’ll leave him in the TE category.

The theme for this season is “XXL Big and Tall” because, no joke, we’ve picked up a lot of tall guys. Look at these heights:

* Drake London – 6’4″
* Bryan Edwards – 6’3″
* Auden Tate – 6’5″
* Khadarel Hodge – 6’2″
* Geronimo Allison – 6’3″

Other receivers to mention:

* Kyle Pitts – 6’6″
* Cordarrelle Patterson – 6’2″

While not absolutely everyone is a giant on the team (and not all of these guys will make the 53 man roster), you still can see what HC Arthur Smith and GM Terry Fontenot are trying to do here, prioritizing height more so over speed, using big bodies to move the chains, control TOP, and score touchdowns. They also signed a lot of guys in the offseason really trying to improve in this position group.

**Drake London, WR**

FantasyPros ADP: 93 (back of 7th), WR39

Drake London is our #8 overall pick and slots immediately into our WR1 spot. By the account of fellow WR Bryan Edwards, he’s a “shiftier version of Mike Evans.” And when you see clips of him breaking the ankles of defenders in camp, he matches up well with that description. His topline speed was the biggest knock on him (didn’t run the 40 because of an injury), but he self-reported at 4.5 seconds, which isn’t world-beating especially if you account that he’s probably fudging that number a bit. But he’s huge and runs great routes, so his separation is generated from leaving a defender in another time zone. His college film shows him basically mossing his opponents. I’m personally really excited about this guy and I think he could truly be a top WR in this league. Right now his ADP puts him behind guys like Lockett and Treylon Burks. It might be fair considering the QB situation, but if Mariota plays decently, Drake could quickly become good value at this ADP. His lone catch in the preseason had him tackled in a weird way and they kept him out as a precaution for the rest of the game.

Highlights:

[London shaking CB Casey Hayward in camp](https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1554979058043289602?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

[London makes easy separation vs CB Isaiah Oliver in camp](https://twitter.com/FalconsNextQB/status/1555946948804444160?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

[London runs a crossing route using his length to catch an easy ball ahead of the defender in preseason game 1](https://twitter.com/NFLRookieWatxh/status/1558218179188514817?s=20&t=dzpk55KGaFl8SuoOYl37AQ)

**Bryan Edwards, WR**

FantasyPros ADP: Undrafted (WR102)

Bryan Edwards is a young and tall WR drafted by the Raiders in the 2020 draft. The Falcons traded for him to join their roster as basically the WR2. Bryan Edwards is perhaps a less shifty Drake London as he has the height to box out defenders without much on the way of speed. He may have respectable numbers this year, but I wouldn’t count on him from a fantasy perspective.

Highlights:

[One-handed catch vs Broncos](https://twitter.com/DiehardFalcFan/status/1557044223542562816?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

**RB:**

The RB group went through a few changes. Mike Davis (released, signed with Ravens) did not shape up to be a lead back, having us to over-rely on Cordarrelle Patterson for production. Many thought we might target an RB earlier in the draft, but we ended up waiting until the fifth round to draft Tyler Allgeier.

**Cordarrelle Patterson, RB**

FantasyPros ADP: 82 (back of 6th round)

Starting with fan favorite Cordarrelle Patterson as the #1 on the depth chart. CP was famously underrated to start the season last year hitting his stride from the very beginning, but he tapered off in a major way about weeks 12-14. History seems to be repeating itself as many people are instantly knocking him down the draft charts due to his age (31) and chalking up last year as fluky. The part that makes him really valuable as an RB is the fact that he’s relied so much on both the rushing and receiving game, as he had 1,166 total yards and 11 total TDs, both of these stats are far more than he had ever before in his career. But he was also relied upon frequently being our best weapon besides Kyle Pitts. I still think he offers a lot of value, and we signed him to a 2 year extension. Since he’s pretty much a swiss army knife, I know our HC sees his value as being a “weapon,” and not restricted to a position. Even if Tyler Allgeier or Damien Williams were to be put in at RB, CP would probably still be placed out wide. Arthur Smith likes him too much not to use him, especially in scoring situations. His draft position basically has him as an RB1 (position-wise) in a sea of RB2’s, which I find to be confusing. Going off ADP, I’d personally push him up into the 60s rather than his current 82. But you can use that as late value.

Highlights:

[Perfect comeback for reception vs LB in camp](https://twitter.com/FalcoholicKevin/status/1554975337179643906?s=20&t=4PngSySVjRIymh_wnBb_AQ)

[One-handed catch in camp](https://twitter.com/FalcoholicKevin/status/1554534538679812097?s=20&t=4PngSySVjRIymh_wnBb_AQ)

**Tyler Allgeier, RB**

FantasyPros ADP: probably undrafted

A lot of pundits seem to be putting Allgeier as a sleeper candidate, eyeing a potential good situation to make him a starting RB on an NFL team while producing pretty good film. I don’t doubt that he may one day be the guy as CP is in the twilight of his career (evidenced even by the fact that CP talks about retiring in Atlanta and getting “1 last return TD before hanging that position up”). But it’s still worth mentioning that the guy was drafted in the 5th round and puts up a 4.6 40 time at 5’11” 220 lbs. You just have to pump the brakes a little on a rookie RB who isn’t an elite athletic prospect, and Atlanta is still not a good team. Maybe we’ll see something during preseason to make us think differently, but right now I see this guy as being undrafted and remaining so for the season unless CP gets injured. Despite what analysts may say, I don’t see a clear path to be our leading rusher. Even still, Damien Williams is another effective RB and could split carries with Allgeier if he makes the 53-man roster. He did run well in the first preseason game, but then again so did Damien Williams.

Highlights:

[Really good route running in camp](https://twitter.com/FalcoholicKevin/status/1554837286419697665?s=20&t=4PngSySVjRIymh_wnBb_AQ)

[Allgeier blows through nice hole with stiff arm, gets nice gain in preseason game 1](https://twitter.com/WestCoastCFB/status/1558247500435230721?s=20&t=FfV-neoLJevMMrg-_VbCTw)

**TE**

The TE group is interesting this year. Led by the already-dominant Kyle Pitts, we have added Anthony Firkser, retained Parker Hesse, drafted John Fitzpatrick, and most interestingly, converted QB Feleipe Franks to TE.

**Kyle Pitts, TE**

FantasyPros ADP: 32 (middle to back of second)

Full stop – Kyle Pitts at only age 21 entering his second year has the potential to be the most dominant receiver in the league – maybe not this year, but at some point very soon. Putting Pitts as a TE is basically a technicality. He actually only lined up as inline TE 27% of the time, and he lined up wide 30% and slot 43% – he also rarely is ever in for pass blocking. Getting him against a slow LB or smaller safety/CB is a recipe for success as he’s 6’6″ and runs a 4.44 40. There’s hardly anyone who can really beat his athletic profile and from the looks of camp and by his own statement, he’s been focusing on his route-running which was probably the only knock on him if you had to find one. Despite his decent numbers last year (1,026 yards and 1 TD), he was hampered by the fact that defenses could double or triple him since there was only CP as the other big weapon (and CP was often playing in the RB position). Why only 1 TD last year? If we’re being completely honest, Matt Ryan’s ability to throw a TD in the red zone has been an issue for a long time. Last three years oldest to most recent, he’s been ranked 17th, 23rd, and 22nd in TD% in the red zone (minimum 30 attempts). So when you factor that plus that Pitts was always doubled in the RZ, it made it difficult for him to get opportunities. I think his potential is sky high, and I’m personally going to be trying to get him as my TE this year. Early second doesn’t seem too high to draft him.

Highlights:

[Great coverage, but Pitts adjusts for the catch in camp](https://twitter.com/SznPltts/status/1557855588976996352?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

[Pitts fights a hold in camp](https://twitter.com/FalcoholicKevin/status/1553388839586394112?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

[Shaky camera, but hauls in a really tough catch in camp](https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1422570126252019716?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

[Burns an LB in camp](https://twitter.com/FalcoholicKevin/status/1554476195772776449?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

**Feleipe Franks, QB/TE**

FantasyPros ADP: N/A

Feleipe is basically an athletic freak who is not a good QB, but Arthur Smith wants to turn him into our version of Taysom Hill. He’s 6’7″ and runs a 4.61, so if he can put together a good receiving skillset, he can surprise the league, especially considering he can check into the QB position as well for a designed run play. He’s not really fantasy relevant yet, but I thought he was worth talking about just in case.

Highlights:

[Average cut, but size/speed wins on the route in camp](https://twitter.com/FalcoholicKevin/status/1554853450701225984?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

[Brutal truck in camp](https://twitter.com/FalcoholicKevin/status/1555952326095036417?s=20&t=3ka09QHaM9CD9k7CVnkMHQ)

# TL;DR

I think you’re looking at a team that is Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Drake London for fantasy-relevant draftable players and I think these three guys are worth more than where they’re being drafted. I wouldn’t try to target anyone else unless you are in a 2QB league or superflex league to get Mariota as your 3rd or 4th QB. I also think the defense could be better this year, but not good enough to look at in fantasy.

Falcons MO this year will be moving the chains, controlling TOP, and scoring TDs, relying primarily on size to get the job done. Using the mobility of the QBs and the positional flexibility of our players, we plan to scheme our players open. Big plays are possible, but I wonder how many deep balls you might see based on our roster. Deep plays require pass-blocking prowess and fast receivers, whereas we seem more inclined for solid run-blocking and short passes.