The 2022 Chicago Bears should be compared against the 2018 Buffalo Bills.

I think it’s normal that with any regime change there’s a level of uncertainty that goes beyond individual personnel or how a particular rookie might fit in. Regime changes often bring in grand-sweeping changes that can build a team up for sustained success (the Bills) or result in a freefall that requires a lot of effort to clean up (Marc Trestman’s Bears)

So it’s no surprise that Bears fans, fresh into a new regime change, have questions not just about how certain players will perform this year, but macro-level questions about what the expect from the team going forward as a new GM and head coach tandem work in lockstep to usher in a new era of Bears football.

I suggest we look no further than the 2018 Buffalo Bills as a great case study for what to expect from a team that’s in a rebuild, but not a tear-it-down-to-the-studs rebuild like we’ve seen so often.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. In case you forgot, the Bills had tried to get creative with their head coaching hire prior Sean McDermott and went out and hired Rex Ryan in an effort to make a splash in a division that had been run by the Patriots since the turn of the century. The only other team that had any sniff of success, the Jets, were run by Ryan. His hiring was a bit of a circus as he was remembered more for painting his truck than anything his teams did on the field. Kind of reminds me of a certain visor-wearing Bears coach spent more time decorating his draft room in play sheets and calling runs out of the T-formation than actually establishing an identity for his team.

After Ryan was fired, the Bills (like the Bears), wanted to identify a culture. An identity. They zeroed in on Sean McDermott, the longtime Panthers DC and protege of former Eagles great DC Jim Johnson, to be their next head coach.

The reactions poured in almost [immediately](https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/reaction-to-the-bills-hiring-sean-mcdermott/article_223057ed-abe6-53f0-956f-5af705a8beec.html) and the consensus was that McDermott was a guy that would focus on the fundamentals, build a culture, and whose players universally loved him.

The reactions were almost identical to [Eberlus](https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/bears-hire-matt-eberflus-head-coach-nfl-analysts-reaction/) with David Haugh even making a direct comparison between the two.

The 2017 Bills surprised some folks and snuck into the playoffs with a 9-7 record. They were gritty and competitive, but still without a true franchise QB. Tyrod Taylor was good if unspectacular, and in the 2018 draft the Bills would select Josh Allen.

In 2018 the Bills had the same questions the Bears [do](https://medium.com/@dylankuhn10/buffalo-bills-2018-preview-record-prediction-a604e648eedd). Their offensive line had lost three starters, their QB was unknown, and though there were some potential cornerstones on defense the roster itself was full of holes.

They were predicted to be [one of the worst teams in the league](https://www.newyorkupstate.com/sports/erry-2018/09/650a8960de8233/buffalo-bills-2018-records-pre.html) with some of the more optimistic predictions giving them four wins.

Here’s a snippet from a preview article that could very well be about our beloved Bears and the concerns for this upcoming season:

>Their quarterback situation could be a disaster, regardless of whether it’s Peterman or rookie Josh Allen who ultimately plays the bulk of the season; they are woefully weak on the offensive line and at wide receiver; decent at tight end, assuming Charles Clay suddenly becomes a true playmaker; good on the defensive line assuming Trent Murphy and Star Lotulelei were worth the money and they can find a way to help the Bills top their feeble 27-sack total from last year; and questionable at linebacker, even if Tremaine Edmunds proves to be a stud. Oh, and kicker Stephen Hauschka is very good.

The Bills have holes up and down their starting 22 and almost no depth, but when you are carrying more than $54 million in dead salary cap space as the Bills are in 2018, it’s next to impossible to field a representative team that can contend for a playoff berth.

Again, sound familiar? The Bears too are expected to be one of, if not *the*, worst teams in the NFL.

So, what happened with the Bills?

Well the first two weeks they looked like one of the worst teams. They got gobsmacked in their opener to the Ravens (47-3) after starting Nathan Peterman (they wanted Allen to sit and watch for a year, similar to Fields), but Peterman was abysmal and in Week 2 Allen would get the nod. Week 2 is the notorious game where Vontae Davis retired at halftime.

However, the building blocks were established with each passing week and the Bills would finish the year 4-3 en route to a 6-10 record. They weren’t great, but they weren’t awful, and it was clear that a foundation had been set going into the 2019 offseason. They finished the year beating the Dolphins 42-17.

The following year (2019) the Bills went 10-6 and have not missed the playoffs since.

Why do I feel like the Bills are a strong case-study?

For starters, I think it’s clear that the culture McDermott has created in Buffalo parallels what Eberflus wants to create in Chicago. Eberflus, like McDermott (who got it from old friend [Ron Rivera](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/sep/23/ron-rivera-and-sean-mcdermott-rivals-with-a-common/)) likes to empower is incredibly detail-oriented. He asks a lot of his players, but does so at a fundamental level.

The Bears, like the 2018 Bills, have a young QB and a new offensive coordinator. After the 2017 campaign that saw the Bills reach the playoffs, the Bills parted with Rick Dennison and hired relatively unknown Brian Daboll (fresh off a stint as Alabama OC) as their offensive coordinator. He had bounced around as an OC in the NFL for years before settling with the Bills and being a huge component in developing Josh Allen.

The Bills defense in 2018 was also a question mark with a group of solid if unspectacular players who were not awful but not expected to make much noise. It was an unheralded group on paper, but by the end of the year they were [second in DVOA behind the Bears](https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2018/final-2018-dvoa-ratings) despite finishing 6-10

For these reasons I really think the parallels between the Bears and Bills are almost too perfect to overlook. The Bills wound up using their 2018 season to springboard into consistent Superbowl contention. Josh Allen is a true franchise QB who overcame similar obstacles early in his career that Justin Fields similarly faces.

I don’t think the Bears will be great this year, but I think there’s a blueprint for success in what the Bills did that I think the Bears could be trying to match. Only time will tell, but I certainly don’t think the Bears will be nearly as bad as everyone else things and could surprise some folks in a years’ time.