this is a joke. guy has Matthews better than McDavid. Toronto a better over all team than Edmonton and a higher chance at winning the cup.
October 5, 2022
this is a joke. guy has Matthews better than McDavid. Toronto a better over all team than Edmonton and a higher chance at winning the cup.
28 comments
Honestly I don’t put too much stock in this dudes numbers but I know Toronto fans will be like “duh duh defense mCdAvId DoN’t PlAy DeFeNcE” meanwhile if a trade 1 for 1 were to appear they would take it in a heartbeat lmao
I’d love to see an analysis of how accurate this stuff was in previous years. Hot takes for clicks and views.
I mean Michael bunting is ranked a full point higher than Kane. Quality of line mate must play a role (plays w Marner) and hence Leon’s comparatively low rating
The creator of the graph is a joke.
It’s funny last year Jack Campbell was their answer for the cup but now they are shitting all over him saying that their goaltending was “hot garbage” last year and that they need average goaltending when Campbell had a .914sv%
Oilers fans and analytic models, name a better rivalry.
Mathews to Arizona……they have lots of cap space.
I don’t know how these numbers come to be, but as I have said before, and I will say again, if your model does not have McDavid as the best player in the league, you need to scrap your model and start again.
ITT: people who have absolutely no clue what a model is
I’d rather the Oilers constantly be underestimated than overestimated.
Makes the upset wins over “league Darlings” that much better.
And Marner better than Draisaitl. Goodbye credibility…
The hockey guy has the oilers as the 6th highest chance to win the cup. He had Calgary and Toronto following in that order. I trust him more
Michael Bunting is secretly an NHL All-Star (news to me)
If any oilers fan is thinking Campbell is your solution in goal, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. You’ll be begging for Smith back the minute someone boos Campbell and he goes into a mental tailspin.
Imagine getting upset at some ai generated statistics
Dom is open about the fact that much of his work (including this) comes from an entirely statistical model and has nothing to do with an “eye test”.
He also talks openly about results of the model surprise him. So this is essentially what the stats are saying, not Dom’s opinion.
Is it perfect? No. Is it just as interesting as everyone else’s eye test takes and predictions about the season? I would say yes.
In the end reporters don’t decide who wins the Stanley cup, teams do.
Not a fan of either team, but I think the leafs are objectively better and have a higher chance of winning the cup. Also, while I think Mcdavid is better than Matthews, I don’t think they’re far apart and understand the argument for Matthews (even if I disagree)
98% chance of playoffs lol. Fuck I hope they don’t make it in and we can come back and comment on this.
So I got into sports betting 5 years ago.
First two years were not great but the last 3 have been awesome, and is continuing to go awesome this year. I’ve learned a lot but the main thing is no analyst or expert watches much games.
I won’t say I know more than the experts but I know different stuff and some things to look for, for betting edges. I don’t like to bet hockey because I’m biased, except sometimes books are weak on certain props.
But for hockey all the free advance stats like corsi etc suck. The be-all-end-all stat for hockey is puck possession. Over 60% of the time the team that possesses the puck the most will win. That doesn’t sound like a huge edge but you won’t find a better betting edge out there.
Anyways, my point was you shouldn’t pay any attention to any hockey statistician unless they have a paid sportslogiq subscription (which is no one I’ve heard of) It’s what all the teams use where they track everything
I am a Leaf fan , but McDavid is the better overall player. Toronto plays in the Eastern Conference which is an overall tougher conference than the Western Conference. Bottom line in neither team will be in the Stanley Cup Finals this year.
I think McDavid is better than Matthews
This is just his GSVA. It’s a numerical stat that was invented before Matthews was even in the league.
Salt about it is just weird.
Part of the fun is letting haters hate… And then nourishing yourself with their tears of sadness in due time
Mcdavid is a better player but he’s right about Toronto being a better team and having a better chance for the cup.
I can wrap my head around how Matthews might be weighted more highly than McDavid by an algo based purely on his goal production without agreeing with it, and I think 97% of people widely acknowledge the fact that Matthews is not in fact better than McDavid.
What I can’t wrap my head around is any world where Marner is not only more valuable than Draisaitl, but that much more valuable. The guy is almost universally regarded as being somewhere in the top 3-5 players currently playing, and this model has Marner almost 1 point more valuable.
The funny thing is. The explanation is in both articles. He didn’t say Matthew’s was better. He said he had the better year last year during eegular season. Even acknowledged that mcdavid post season even further cemented him as the best. OP either can’t read, or can’t understand sentences. It’s all in the articles.
I think most teams have a better chance of winning the cup than the leafs have of getting out of the 1st round
28 comments
Honestly I don’t put too much stock in this dudes numbers but I know Toronto fans will be like “duh duh defense mCdAvId DoN’t PlAy DeFeNcE” meanwhile if a trade 1 for 1 were to appear they would take it in a heartbeat lmao
I’d love to see an analysis of how accurate this stuff was in previous years. Hot takes for clicks and views.
I mean Michael bunting is ranked a full point higher than Kane. Quality of line mate must play a role (plays w Marner) and hence Leon’s comparatively low rating
The creator of the graph is a joke.
It’s funny last year Jack Campbell was their answer for the cup but now they are shitting all over him saying that their goaltending was “hot garbage” last year and that they need average goaltending when Campbell had a .914sv%
Oilers fans and analytic models, name a better rivalry.
Mathews to Arizona……they have lots of cap space.
I don’t know how these numbers come to be, but as I have said before, and I will say again, if your model does not have McDavid as the best player in the league, you need to scrap your model and start again.
ITT: people who have absolutely no clue what a model is
I’d rather the Oilers constantly be underestimated than overestimated.
Makes the upset wins over “league Darlings” that much better.
And Marner better than Draisaitl.
Goodbye credibility…
The hockey guy has the oilers as the 6th highest chance to win the cup. He had Calgary and Toronto following in that order. I trust him more
Michael Bunting is secretly an NHL All-Star (news to me)
If any oilers fan is thinking Campbell is your solution in goal, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. You’ll be begging for Smith back the minute someone boos Campbell and he goes into a mental tailspin.
Imagine getting upset at some ai generated statistics
Dom is open about the fact that much of his work (including this) comes from an entirely statistical model and has nothing to do with an “eye test”.
He also talks openly about results of the model surprise him. So this is essentially what the stats are saying, not Dom’s opinion.
Is it perfect? No.
Is it just as interesting as everyone else’s eye test takes and predictions about the season? I would say yes.
In the end reporters don’t decide who wins the Stanley cup, teams do.
Not a fan of either team, but I think the leafs are objectively better and have a higher chance of winning the cup. Also, while I think Mcdavid is better than Matthews, I don’t think they’re far apart and understand the argument for Matthews (even if I disagree)
98% chance of playoffs lol. Fuck I hope they don’t make it in and we can come back and comment on this.
So I got into sports betting 5 years ago.
First two years were not great but the last 3 have been awesome, and is continuing to go awesome this year.
I’ve learned a lot but the main thing is no analyst or expert watches much games.
I won’t say I know more than the experts but I know different stuff and some things to look for, for betting edges. I don’t like to bet hockey because I’m biased, except sometimes books are weak on certain props.
But for hockey all the free advance stats like corsi etc suck. The be-all-end-all stat for hockey is puck possession. Over 60% of the time the team that possesses the puck the most will win. That doesn’t sound like a huge edge but you won’t find a better betting edge out there.
Anyways, my point was you shouldn’t pay any attention to any hockey statistician unless they have a paid sportslogiq subscription (which is no one I’ve heard of)
It’s what all the teams use where they track everything
I am a Leaf fan , but McDavid is the better overall player. Toronto plays in the Eastern Conference which is an overall tougher conference than the Western Conference. Bottom line in neither team will be in the Stanley Cup Finals this year.
I think McDavid is better than Matthews
This is just his GSVA. It’s a numerical stat that was invented before Matthews was even in the league.
Salt about it is just weird.
Part of the fun is letting haters hate… And then nourishing yourself with their tears of sadness in due time
Mcdavid is a better player but he’s right about Toronto being a better team and having a better chance for the cup.
I can wrap my head around how Matthews might be weighted more highly than McDavid by an algo based purely on his goal production without agreeing with it, and I think 97% of people widely acknowledge the fact that Matthews is not in fact better than McDavid.
What I can’t wrap my head around is any world where Marner is not only more valuable than Draisaitl, but that much more valuable. The guy is almost universally regarded as being somewhere in the top 3-5 players currently playing, and this model has Marner almost 1 point more valuable.
The funny thing is. The explanation is in both articles. He didn’t say Matthew’s was better. He said he had the better year last year during eegular season. Even acknowledged that mcdavid post season even further cemented him as the best. OP either can’t read, or can’t understand sentences. It’s all in the articles.
I think most teams have a better chance of winning the cup than the leafs have of getting out of the 1st round
Cope.