538 has historically been Giants doubters, but their model currently gives Giants an 86% chance of making playoffs
October 24, 2022
538 has historically been Giants doubters, but their model currently gives Giants an 86% chance of making playoffs
23 comments
GMEN LFG!!!!
I’ll probably cry if we make the playoffs
We still have games against DET, HOU, and IND plus two vs. WAS and a week 18 game vs. PHI which they may not need to win.
I will be shocked if we can’t muster up enough wins w/ this remaining schedule to make the playoffs. Of course injuries and what not, but still, we should make the playoffs with a first round game vs. the Bucs where we officially and finally end Tom’s career.
The team is 6-1 with games remaining against Houston, Washington 2x, Detroit, and an Indy team that rapidly looks like it’s going nowhere.
9 wins will almost assuredly get us a wild card spot, so yeah I’d hope this model gives them a high chance.
Well now we’re not making the playoffs given 538’s predictive history
Lmao “historically been Giants doubters”…Why does everyone frame any discussion about this year’s team as hypocritical? Win games and you get positive media attention. Suck donkey balls and you get negative media attention. It’s not rocket science.
At this point, we should almost be thinking about getting a top seed. It’d be pretty disappointing if we didn’t win a lot of our remaining games. Obviously making the playoffs at all would be a huge upgrade over the last 5 years, but trying to have a winners mentality here lol
Elo ratings (not just 538, but as a concept) has ranked the Giants as shit b/c it relies on past performance. I’m not sure anyone can argue that the Giants over the past decade have, in fact, played like shit.
Elo adjusts game-to-game and its therefore backwards looking, so it lags actual performance. Right now, the 538 Elo for us has increased every week and is the highest its been basically since the 2016 playoff run. If we continue winning, it’ll continue adjusting upwards (right now it considers us a slightly below league-avg. team).
*Win Super Bowl: 2%*
2% to win the Super Bowl. So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
Yeah, at this point it’s just math. We are 3 games up on a playoff spot with 10 games to play, at least half of which we should expect be favored in
538 were “Giants doubters” because we sucked for the last decade.
stats are for losers- we’re winning out
We have 4 winnable games remaining at home. Texans, Lions, Redskins, and Colts. We need to take care of business at home in those games. That will give us 10 wins.
Our remaining road games are tough. Divisional road games are never easy wins. The others are tough in Seattle and Minny. Interestingly, Seattle has lost 4 or more games at home 3 of the last 5 years.
Really sucking off the Bills huh? They havent evn proved themselves yet. Great season team but playoffs? Call me then.
Also yeah hopefully we make the playoffs. Its all we have ever needed.
Their ELO system is awful, way to slow to react to how the nfl works. Unless the bucs really are significantly better than us and the jets
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
im not trying to be overly optimistic, but if we’re playing like this with the whole team hurt, I think the playoffs are a lock.
Were they really doubters if we proved them right for the last five years…lol It’s just a model. Let’s be happy we earned this so far and the numbers prove it.
Even looking at this graphic puts the fear of a jinx into my heart. DON’T PUT THAT ON US RICKY BOBBY!
How do the cowboys still have a better chance then us with 2 loses, just cause they beat us?
That’s because the AFC has beaten a lot of NFC teams so the WC chances for us are pretty high. And the NFC teams around .500 lost to weaker NFC teams (Tampa, for example).
Giants have to really mess up to not get into the playoffs, and of course the division title is still on the table as well — Game 1 vs Philly is at Home, CAN’T WAIT!!!
So you’re saying we have the same chances of winning the SB as Tom Brady? I’ll take those odds any day
23 comments
GMEN LFG!!!!
I’ll probably cry if we make the playoffs
We still have games against DET, HOU, and IND plus two vs. WAS and a week 18 game vs. PHI which they may not need to win.
I will be shocked if we can’t muster up enough wins w/ this remaining schedule to make the playoffs. Of course injuries and what not, but still, we should make the playoffs with a first round game vs. the Bucs where we officially and finally end Tom’s career.
The team is 6-1 with games remaining against Houston, Washington 2x, Detroit, and an Indy team that rapidly looks like it’s going nowhere.
9 wins will almost assuredly get us a wild card spot, so yeah I’d hope this model gives them a high chance.
Well now we’re not making the playoffs given 538’s predictive history
Lmao “historically been Giants doubters”…Why does everyone frame any discussion about this year’s team as hypocritical? Win games and you get positive media attention. Suck donkey balls and you get negative media attention. It’s not rocket science.
At this point, we should almost be thinking about getting a top seed. It’d be pretty disappointing if we didn’t win a lot of our remaining games. Obviously making the playoffs at all would be a huge upgrade over the last 5 years, but trying to have a winners mentality here lol
Elo ratings (not just 538, but as a concept) has ranked the Giants as shit b/c it relies on past performance. I’m not sure anyone can argue that the Giants over the past decade have, in fact, played like shit.
Elo adjusts game-to-game and its therefore backwards looking, so it lags actual performance. Right now, the 538 Elo for us has increased every week and is the highest its been basically since the 2016 playoff run. If we continue winning, it’ll continue adjusting upwards (right now it considers us a slightly below league-avg. team).
*Win Super Bowl: 2%*
2% to win the Super Bowl. So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
Yeah, at this point it’s just math. We are 3 games up on a playoff spot with 10 games to play, at least half of which we should expect be favored in
538 were “Giants doubters” because we sucked for the last decade.
stats are for losers- we’re winning out
We have 4 winnable games remaining at home. Texans, Lions, Redskins, and Colts. We need to take care of business at home in those games. That will give us 10 wins.
Our remaining road games are tough. Divisional road games are never easy wins. The others are tough in Seattle and Minny. Interestingly, Seattle has lost 4 or more games at home 3 of the last 5 years.
Really sucking off the Bills huh? They havent evn proved themselves yet. Great season team but playoffs? Call me then.
Also yeah hopefully we make the playoffs. Its all we have ever needed.
Their ELO system is awful, way to slow to react to how the nfl works. Unless the bucs really are significantly better than us and the jets
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
im not trying to be overly optimistic, but if we’re playing like this with the whole team hurt, I think the playoffs are a lock.
Were they really doubters if we proved them right for the last five years…lol
It’s just a model. Let’s be happy we earned this so far and the numbers prove it.
Even looking at this graphic puts the fear of a jinx into my heart. DON’T PUT THAT ON US RICKY BOBBY!
How do the cowboys still have a better chance then us with 2 loses, just cause they beat us?
That’s because the AFC has beaten a lot of NFC teams so the WC chances for us are pretty high. And the NFC teams around .500 lost to weaker NFC teams (Tampa, for example).
Giants have to really mess up to not get into the playoffs, and of course the division title is still on the table as well — Game 1 vs Philly is at Home, CAN’T WAIT!!!
So you’re saying we have the same chances of winning the SB as Tom Brady? I’ll take those odds any day