FiveThirtyEight’s ELO forecast currently projects the Jazz to end with the 6th best record in the NBA and to have the same odds at winning the Championship as the Golden State Warriors.
November 6, 2022
FiveThirtyEight’s ELO forecast currently projects the Jazz to end with the 6th best record in the NBA and to have the same odds at winning the Championship as the Golden State Warriors.
10 comments
That seems like crazy talk. But I don’t care, I’m riding this train to the end of the line.
If this team wins 50 games I will get a Jazz note tattooed to my ass.
**violently inhales hopium**
I’m surprised that they aren’t projecting the bucks to win at least 60 games with their 9-0 start. Giannis and Milwaukee appear to be on a mission this season, and they don’t even have Khris Middleton back yet.
I wonder if this complicates Ainge’s plans right now.
Jazz have so many FiveThirtyEight banners hanging in the rafters.
This will be fun to overreact to
Classic case of the national media VASTLY underestimating the prowess of this group of hangry dawgs. I put the jazz’s chances of a chip this year somewhere between 100-110%.
Using the Elo forecast is misleading. Elo is partially based on our strength from last season (soft reset on rating between seasons) and does not account for changes in personnel, so our success from last season is carrying over and providing an elevated prior.
The RAPTOR forecast theoretically does a better job of accounting for these changes, though it’s learning by-the-game about the quality of our players. For instance, Sexton is playing better than expected a year removed from a major injury. To no one’s surprise, Markkanen’s and Olynyk’s ratings are much better than expected as well. On the flip side, THT is worse than expected.
I don’t about all that but the Jazz have a real chance of making the playoffs which is wild.
10 comments
That seems like crazy talk. But I don’t care, I’m riding this train to the end of the line.
If this team wins 50 games I will get a Jazz note tattooed to my ass.
**violently inhales hopium**
I’m surprised that they aren’t projecting the bucks to win at least 60 games with their 9-0 start. Giannis and Milwaukee appear to be on a mission this season, and they don’t even have Khris Middleton back yet.
I wonder if this complicates Ainge’s plans right now.
Jazz have so many FiveThirtyEight banners hanging in the rafters.
This will be fun to overreact to
Classic case of the national media VASTLY underestimating the prowess of this group of hangry dawgs. I put the jazz’s chances of a chip this year somewhere between 100-110%.
Using the Elo forecast is misleading. Elo is partially based on our strength from last season (soft reset on rating between seasons) and does not account for changes in personnel, so our success from last season is carrying over and providing an elevated prior.
The RAPTOR forecast theoretically does a better job of accounting for these changes, though it’s learning by-the-game about the quality of our players. For instance, Sexton is playing better than expected a year removed from a major injury. To no one’s surprise, Markkanen’s and Olynyk’s ratings are much better than expected as well. On the flip side, THT is worse than expected.
I don’t about all that but the Jazz have a real chance of making the playoffs which is wild.