Max Kepler is an average outfielder. He has had around 2.0 fWAR for each of the past 2 years and has a career wRC+ of 101. He’s also an intriguing fit on the Blue Jays and is a better option than any of the free agent options out there as a 3rd/4th outfielder except for maybe Brantley or Gallo. He’s obviously a worse option than one of the Arizona outfielders or Reynolds, but is a solid back-up plan if all other trade targets fall through. He’s begun to draw trade interest, and hopefully that means the Twins are considering giving him up to save some money for Correa. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/max-kepler-has-drawn-trade-interest.html
Things that I find interesting about Kepler:
1. His savant page has a whole lotta red (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-kepler-596146?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb)
2. His profile really fits the Jays as he has extremely good BB%, K% and chase rates as a LHH.
3. He’s extremely good in RF, and can play a decent CF, allowing Springer to have rest days in DH or to spend more time in RF.
4. Team friendly contract. Kepler is now entering his final guaranteed season , where he will make a salary of $8.5MM with a $10MM club option for 2024 that has a $1MM buyout.
However the reason why Kepler hasn’t been able to be an above average bat despite his strong savant page is a terrible BABIP. He has a career BABIP of .247, which is significantly lower than the typical league average. He’s a pull happy lefty and has been a massive victim of the shift being shifted against the 20th most in the league at a whopping 89.7% of the time with a wOBA of .310.
The new shift rules can make his offensive profile a whole lot better, and he has a significantly higher floor than Gallo due to his low K rate, and Brantley because of his solid defense.
The only thing is that I’m not sure how willing the Twins are looking to give him up, and not sure if our farm is deep enough to make a trade without using one of our 3 catchers, and Kepler is not good enough to give one of them up for. Most likely would be giving up a promising young pitcher plus more like Robberse and Santos.
Would love to hear everyone else’s thoughts because once I saw the trade rumours I found it super interesting to theorize.
Edit: u/Bluejays39 brought up a good point about how although his K% is low, Kepler has an absurd infield flyball rate, which is essentially as bad as a strikeout. One of the reasons why his BABIP is so low. Makes the upside seem lower than I originally thought.
8 comments
His savant page is actually fascinating for a guy who had a sub .700 OPS.
Seems like a good bounce back candidate, not sure what Minnesota would be looking for. Maybe a middle infielder?
Definitely an interesting candidate, though like you I wonder what pieces we have that the twins would be interested in, and that we’d be willing to give up. Maybe Martinez gets Kepler and a flyer or two?
Curious though why you didn’t list Benintendi as a potentially better fit in the FA market? He seems to be drawing very little attention from our sub but could be a decent fit as an everyday LF
If he was a flyer that’d be great. But I sure wouldn’t trade Jansen for him
They need a lh bat to slide into the top half of the batting order. Kepler is not that guy. Might as well just get another righty.
I see that we’re in the bargaining phase of the Jays offseason now.
No flyers on anyone who might get significant playing time.
This is a team that is supposedly trying for a championship. We need proven guys with results.
I don’t really buy Kepler as a guy who will bounce back with the shift restrictions in his career his WRC+ is lower with no shift then it is against the shift and although his Savant page looks nice his batted ball profile is conducive to low BABIP also yes he doesn’t strike out a lot but because he hits a lot of IFFB which are basically the same as a strike out his K% is a bit misleading when add his IFFB to his Ks it is just under 30%.
I’d be down, then we could use a catcher to address other needs.