Last year, everybody was bad. What if this year, not everybody was bad, and was just sort of…average?
“The relatively good news is that Detroit will likely get some boost simply from regression toward the mean — the so-called “dead cat bounce,” or what Bill James coined “the Plexiglass principle.” Jonathan Schoop, at 30, sported an OPS more than 160 points off his career numbers, and even if I feel worse about him, he would be hard-pressed to be that bad again. Similarly, Spencer Torkelson, a preseason contender for the Rookie of the Year last season, has lost a lot of the shine, especially given that his return to the minors was similarly bleak, but it would be hard for him not to improve on a .604 OPS.”
Let’s use what the fangraphs ZiPS projections system puts out for the typical suspects, net of Miggy who is around 0 fWAR:
If we sum these up, we get something like 16 fWAR from these guys, depending exactly who gets playing time where.
That’s about 12 wins better than last year. Just from not everybody on the position-player side being bad.
8 comments
Yeah I think people will be surprised by the regression to the mean. Honestly, I’m looking forward to seeing our starting pitching and I am hopeful about the bounce back potential from Meadows, Baez, Schoop, and if we are lucky, Torkelson too. This doesn’t mean we will be better than the Twins, Guardians, or White Sox. I don’t expect a ton of consistency, but more than last year.
Haase is going to have a monster year
I could actually see those 12 wins disappear quickly if what may be very likely a decline in bullpen
I’d be THRILLED if this is the production we got this year. It wouldn’t be enough to challenge for a playoff spot, but it would be a massive step in the right direction.
I’ve been consoling myself with this for months now. They can’t all be that terrible two years in a row.
I mean, it’s a fair expectation. Our offense was *historically bad* for much of last season. Even if our lineup rises to “relatively bad,” that’s still a long ways from where we were last year. Combine that with pitching that, on paper, looks like it will be pretty damn good and… we could turn some heads.
We’re not winning any divisions or competing for a playoff spot in September. Not by any metric. But we will be improved.
Our offense can only be better this year.
I have no misgivings that this team is going to the playoffs or anything like that but at the same time, they can’t be worse than last year. A decent year from Meadows, Rodriguez, and Baez plus getting Jake Rogers and Spencer back will help get those 12-16 more wins and keep us out of last place