Posted this as a comment in another thread but I figured I’d post it as its own separate thread for visibility.
Trying to play through KAT in the post with his back to the basket has to stop, because it takes away his greatest strength (his shooting) and maximizes all his weaknesses (his decision making and lack of ability to punish mismatches).
Denver’s forwards are pushing him out to the 3pt line when he tries to establish post position so by the time KAT catches the ball he’s 22 feet away from the basket where he can’t make a move, and tries to bulldoze his man to the paint (which results in all sorts of horrible out-of-control drives, charges, and turnovers). This has been a problem his entire career, and it’s rearing its ugly head now.
Look at where KAT is catching the ball in these plays (all of them against smaller defenders). This is where KAT is at his worst.
1) [look where KAT catches the ball against 6’9 205lbs Deni Avdija](https://streamable.com/4pjpao). it’s all the way at the 3pt line and KAT has to back him all the way to the paint in order to get to his spot and ends up getting called for a charge
2) [ here’s a play from game 1 of this series.](https://streamable.com/yhj95a) He has Gordon in the paint if he wants but doesn’t fight hard for positioning and gets pushed all the way off his spot and settles for a contested long 2. [If he seals his man right here](https://imgur.com/a/dT0aFQE) it’s probably an easy hook shot, but he doesn’t establish position and gets pushed off the block.
3) [Here’s another one where he has Austin Reaves but again more of the same](https://streamable.com/s8o39u) – doesn’t fight for positioning and ends up settling.
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If he wants to make an impact on this series offensively it has to be through quick decisive actions. No more holding the ball and being a decision-maker in the middle of the floor. It has to be either:
1) seal defender in the paint, catch, turn, score. [After the initial PnR action gets blown up, KAT smartly recognizes the mismatch and seals the guard, so when the ball gets reset it’s an easy turn and score.](https://streamable.com/epavgm)
[Again, he seals his defender under the basket and it’s an easy two points.](https://streamable.com/2hpjst).Notice that when he does this, the defender is given no opportunity to flop and draw charges because KAT is not trying to bulldoze the defender into the paint – he’s already in the paint and as soon as he catches the ball, he can just score quickly without giving the defender time to flop.
2) catch and shoot or
3) catch, attack closeout, and drive. This is where KAT is at his best because it leverages his best asset, his shooting ability, and can use it to his advantage.
[As KAT catches the ball, Plumlee has to respect the threat of his shot and gets caught in no-mans land.](https://streamable.com/w7f49y) KAT is super decisive in reading the closeout and is already moving by the time he catches the ball, so he can blow by Plumlee and score.
[Off a pick and pop, ](https://streamable.com/lv0ooq) KAT recognizes the defender has to respect his shot and quickly attacks for a layup.
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A common theme with this is leveraging his shooting ability as a threat. Everyone knows KAT is a great shooter and they are closing out hard, which opens up other opportunities. Therefore I think the Wolves have to manufacture situations where KAT gets the ball and is a threat to shoot, while minimizing the amount of time with the ball in his hands a decision maker.
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Here are some ways the Wolves have created action for KAT to shoot in the past.
I liked the double-drag action they ran a few times in the third quarter where they had Conley or Edwards initiating the offense, and Gobert and Towns both setting a double screen to free up the ballhandler to go downhill. Rudy rolls, Towns fades to the 3pt line, and the Nuggets were leaving KAT open behind the 3pt line a few times (but Edwards didn’t see him open twice and KAT passed up an open three the other time). Nevertheless I think this play has a lot of potential for KAT because he can play against a closeout or get some catch and shoot looks.
[Here are an instance of it working, earlier in the season](https://streamable.com/c1byij)
[Another example. KAT misses](https://streamable.com/jrvhzs), but this is still a good shot to take.
[Another example. Again, KAT misses,](https://streamable.com/n10b5g) but look at the Nuggets defense here. The Nuggets are using a high-hedging defense, which means the low-man has to rotate to stop the paint and one defender is guarding two people in the weak side. The Timberwolves HAVE to keep manufacturing advantageous situations like this. [Look at this still image – Jeff Green is guarding two shooters on the weakside, and Jamal Murray is guarding Gobert in the paint.](https://imgur.com/a/UowgW2D)
[Another example. Again. it matters less that KAT misses the shot, but look how the Nuggets are guarding these actions.](https://streamable.com/6bo8z3) You can manufacture open shots for KAT and it’s on him to knock them down, but an open corner three for KAT is always going to be good offense.
[Or, instead of rolling, Rudy can also turn around and set a screen for KAT to pop open for three](https://streamable.com/ya3zl1)
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I also like using KAT in semi-transition as a trailer. He can walk into open threes and knock them down, or leverage the threat of his trail 3 to force the defense to overcommit and get to the rim.
[Watch as he just walks into a three.](https://streamable.com/q5ykya)
[Here he immediately punishes the defense for not matching up properly](https://streamable.com/libbq9).
[Or, if the defense overcommits he can just pumpfake and go by the defender for a layup](https://streamable.com/m1xgdp)
[Here’s another example.](https://streamable.com/hkb6n4)
12 comments
Take note you finch!! Agreed I think we hope he can play like Jokic when in reality he doesn’t have vision and decision making to do it.
I think it was pretty clear that they got on Kat pretty good at halftime. In the second half his mentality seemed to change. He stopped holding the ball forever and became much more decisive. He missed some good looks but he did make a few nice plays and he didn’t totally kill the offense. Hopefully it’s an adjustment Kat takes with him through the remainder of the series but who knows
I think alot of people really have some strange ideas about KATs game that I hope posts like this will help clear up.
KAT is really not a great post player. He isn’t strong enough to hold his position (I’ve seen Ja Morant push him off the low block) and often compensate with foul magnet actions such as using elbows to chicken wing for space. His passing out of the post is easy to read and folds under the pressure. Dude still struggles to read double teams. He has nice finishing moves but lacks actually reliable moves to get closer to the basket. It’s honestly been a headache for the last few seasons and he should be embarrassed that Edwards has shown more promise with post moves in such a short amount of time.
KATs real identity is as a ruthlessly efficient pick and pop man that can punish mismatches on the perimeter. He thrives abusing bigs with his spacing and knocking down long shots. I just wish he could commit to this role instead of being determined to show he can do what Giannis, Jokic and Embiid do. KAT is his own man yet he doesn’t play in his own identity.
So basically we should accept that he has zero shot-creation ability, and that they paid supermax to Davis Bertans. That’s rough. We may be witnessing a Ben Simmons level mental collapse in real-time.
Kat in both series has been clearly rushing his shots from three. It’s surely a reaction to playoff-level defense. But if that’s all we go to him for you can expect nights like he has had.
His best game down the stretch and In the play-in game we were at times posting him up and since he can see the whole floor so well, this was actually working. I still say down low is Kat’s real advantage in today’s NBA.
So far it’s starting to become clear that Kat is the key to stopping us.
Ant can drive to the hoop and is a streaky three point shooter (not a good one like Kat). But he’s not the playmaker. In the third quarter they just let Ant get to the rack. Ant starts the game slow because of the tight defense and inability to score within a structured offense that we are disciplined to run starting most games.
Quality post and analysis. It’s crazy that a fan can analysis something of this depth while I can only hope our coach can somewhat understand and “adapt” accordingly. I doubt it though (I mean, it’s been 3 years).
I will say- I think Finch and upper management is scared to use KAT like you said cause they are paying him the super max. They don’t want to admit that they just made a mistake paying all that money to a Porzingis or Channing Frye.
I don’t think the issue is so much playing in the post, it’s him getting to the post. Too often he’s catching at the 3 point line or 22 feet away at the top of the key. This doesn’t help because he can’t back anyone down, not is he able to get the gravity of defense near the basket. I think they should keep trying to run plays in the post but should have quick counters if KAT fails to get positioning
Great writeup.
I feel like they try and run the offense like Jokic. It’s so jarring how much better positioning Jokic takes and just how much faster he processes. Kat thinks too much, like he is afraid of making the wrong decision.
He has been effective in the post, at times and I don’t think they should give up on him there, next year. I think playmaking post Kat needs structure. I think he could do well if he had like 1 key to quickly process.
Yes. Agree with all points. My theory is Kat must love the iso play just off the block. I mean he must be lobbying for it, right? I’ve been wanting them to stop running those damn plays for years. I don’t have a stat to back it up, but there’s no way it’s efficient. Best case scenario is a good pass out of a double team, and sometimes he’s locked in with the turnaround j, but the usual outcome seems to be either a bad pass, a tough post shot, or an offensive foul. There’s no way coaches don’t see this, so why keep running it?
Really great post.
I think the issue with both our stars is that neither knows how to read and manipulate a defense when they have the ball in their hands. They’re skilled enough to beat their man in a lot of ways but they play reactive rather than predictive. Ant and KAT (or the ball dominant player on any team) have to have some sense of “if I do this, I will have this decision to make when the defense does this”. Instead, it seems like our guys play “I’m GOING to do this and if it doesn’t work I’ll bail with either a bad shot or forced pass”.
Since our guys aren’t doing that regularly, they should be making up for it by being hounds with off-ball motion. If KAT and Ant are moving all the time on offense without the ball, their decisions will become easier when they get the ball as long as they act immediately. Rotating/collapsing defenses are easier to work against. IMO this is the heart of what you’re getting at as well. KAT has to be an off-the-ball mover (similar to what Curry and Klay do) to get himself more wide open 3s and/or more drives against scrambling defenses.
The issue with that is that requires top-tier, elite conditioning for our stars. They have to have more legs than everyone else on the floor, not sure they’re at that point right now.
Barkley was complaining last night that Kats problems is he thinks he’s just a shooter now and doesn’t want to play in the post I was like are you even watching the game it’s not likes he’s not trying to post up
kat can’t try to post from the 3pt line, if he’s going to post he must receive near the hoop, that’s the main problem, when he has someone under the hoop they never pass the ball to him, finch has to make plays for karl, for him to come out of a screen to receive near the hoop, and I think they should try the high pick and pop with him and Edwards, of course Edwards must take into account that if he does not have the shot he must pass the ball to towns behind, with that play to the Horford was lethal in his prime, first from midrange and after 3pt when he extended his shooting range and also allowed the ball handler a free way to attack the basket, with Horford jeff teague was an all star, isaiah thomas had an mvp season in his only season with horford and kyrie irving he had his best numbers. the only problem is that horford is very good at setting up screens, but kat is much better with his shot having a much faster shot and being better penetrating after a pump fake, so just have towns set up the screen early so that It is not a foul and Edwards penetrates the paint hard.