Nick Suzuki Stats Analysis

**Bio**

[Nick Suzuki](https://cdn.ontariohockeyleague.com/uploads/guelph_storm/2021/06/25103256/Screen-Shot-2021-06-25-at-10.32.30-AM-e1624631605910.png) was born on August 10, 1999 in London, Ontario. Growing up with [various health issues](https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/nick-suzuki-nothing-could-stop-this-rising-star/c-328561286), Suzuki never missed a NHL or [OHL junior game because of injuries](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/nick-suzuki-has-become-an-iron-man-for-the-canadiens) (he missed some games due to illness in the OHL, but never due to injury). He’s currently 4th in most consecutive games played by [an NHL active player](https://records.nhl.com/records/skater-records/seasons-and-games/most-consecutive-games-played-active-streak).

A 5′ 11″, 208 lbs right shot centre, Suzuki was drafted in the first round, 13th overall in 2017 by the Vegas Golden Knights. On September 10, 2018, along with Tomáš Tatar and a second-round pick, Suzuki was traded to Montreal for Max Pacioretty.

Suzuki played his first NHL game on October 3, 2019 against the Carolina Hurricanes and scored his [first NHL goal against the Minnesota Wild on October 17, 2019](https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/video/suzuki-scores-first-nhl-goal/t-277437414/c-69720003). At 23 years old, he became the youngest captain of the Montreal Canadiens.

As per [CapFriendly](https://www.capfriendly.com/players/nick-suzuki), he signed a 8 year, $63,000,000 contract with the Montreal Canadiens on October 12, 2021. The contract has a cap hit of $7,875,000.

**Basic Stats**

|Season|GP|TOI|G|A1|A2|Total|P/GP|FOW%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|56|18:01|15|17|9|41|0.73|44.0%|
|21-22|82|20:31|21|19|21|61|0.74|49.6%|
|22-23|82|21:06|26|25|15|66|0.80|47.3%|
|**3 years**|**220**|**20:08**|**62**|**61**|**45**|**168**|**0.76**|**47.5%**|

With an average of 21:09 of ice time last season, Suzuki was the 9th most most used forward on average, and the 4th most used forward in total ice time after McDavid, Rantanen and Draisaitl. He also had his best offensive season with a career high 66 points and 0.8 P/GP. Some room for improvement on face-offs with an average of 47.5% in the last 3 years.

Interesting to note he’s got about the same amount of goals (62) as primary assists (61). Suzuki has a reputation for being a play maker, but looks like he’s actually dual threat 😉

**Points Distribution**

|Season|EV|PP|SH|With EN|Against EN|Total|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|24|13|2|1|1|41|
|21-22|37|20|3| |1|61|
|22-23|42|17|3|3|1|66|
|**3 years**|**103**|**50**|**8**|**4**|**3**|**168**|

61% of Suzuki’s production comes at even strength and 30% on the Power Play.

**Rate of production at Even Strength (no special teams, no empty nets)**

|Season|EV G/60|Rank\*|%|EV A1/60|Rank\*|%|Primary Points/60|Rank\*|%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|0.66|189/393|52%|0.51|205/393|48%|1.17|218/393|45%|
|21-22|0.52|318/438|27%|0.57|195/438|55%|1.09|280/438|36%|
|22-23|0.71|198/437|55%|0.71|135/437|69%|1.42|162/437|63%|
|**3 year**|**0.63**|**305/574**|**47%**|**0.61**|**197/574**|**66%**|**1.24**|**251/574**|**56%**|

*\*Rank vs all Forwards with a minimum of 300 minutes played*

You may have heard from various ‘stats’ people that Suzuki is struggling to produce at even strength. This table shows where those people are coming from. This past season marked the first time he’s producing primary points at a top-6 rate where he ranked 162 out of 437 forwards with at least 300 minutes of ice time. It was a nice come back from a very difficult 2021-22 season… However, it should be noted that a lot of that production came during the first two months of the season where he had a league high on-ice shooting % of 15.13 % which was unsustainable (on-ice shooting % is the shooting percentage of everyone on the ice with Suzuki, not only Suzuki himself). That % dropped to a more sustainable 10.2% for the rest of the season.

*Side note: if you want to know if a player’s offensive production is sustainable, look at their on-ice shooting % in addition to their individual shooting %. If it’s high compared to league or team average, they are not likely to be able to sustain that level of production. Law of average is going to kick in eventually.*

**Advanced Stats**

More info on advanced stats terms and concepts: [Beyond the Box Score – An Intro to Hockey Analytics](https://www.nhl.com/kraken/news/beyond-box-score-intro-to-hockey-analytics/c-335471754)

Note: the following results are not adjusted for deployment, quality of competition, quality of teammates, etc.

|On-Ice|CF%|Team Rank|xGF%|Team Rank|xGF/60|Team Rank|xGA/60|Team Rank|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2020-21|52.64|8/13|55.42|4/13|2.59|3/13|2.08|9/13|
|2021-22|45.21|9/15|43.33|11/15|2.20|14/15|2.87|7/15|
|2022-23|45.09|7/17|43.02|10/17|2.46|7/17|3.26|14/17|

The Habs had a great 5v5 team in 2020-21. It went downhill after that. From one of the best 5v5 team in the league, habs are now close to the bottom.

In 2020-21, while Danault was playing against top lines, Suzuki maintained an impressive xGF% of 55.42, 4th best on the team. He’s been struggling to drive play ever since, his on-ice results lower than most teammates in the past two years. To his defence, he had to face top opposition night after night, playing an insane amounts of minutes with several rookies at the blue line, on an injury-plagued team. These are not ideal conditions for a 23 years old captain, asked to carry the team.

**Advanced Stats – Goals Above Replacement (GAR), RAPM and Player Card**

When stats take into consideration point production, on-ice stats, teammates, opposition and deployment.

https://preview.redd.it/ilm7g0j7opwa1.png?width=2040&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=fa62f5927e7d89fefb8f0c5229c9067342785806

When looking at these graphs, you would think Suzuki hasn’t progressed much over the last two years. But then again, he’s currently playing under very difficult circumstances and has taken a lot more responsibilities. As such, the drop in GAR seems to be more an indication of increased responsibilities.

[Z-score of 0 = league average](https://preview.redd.it/r8ufnoxoopwa1.png?width=1700&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=396b6f0bc8145bd96a74103e641b2b4003e9e8b2)

Suzuki is well above league average on the Power Play but he’s struggling at Even Strength, especially defensively. Noteworthy is the GF/60 bar in blue while the xGF is in the red, which is sometimes the case for talented players who are scoring more goals than whatever models will say their ‘expected goals’ should be. Also helps to be playing mostly with elite sniper Caufield ;).

​

https://preview.redd.it/q1ld9g8bqpwa1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=1ba340c0c4039c5873816704bb7011784351d0a1

While the rest of the team is struggling on the special teams, Suzuki is performing well. Noteworthy are the TOI graphs showing how insane his ice-time is; PP1, PK1 and well at the end of the bell curve at EV. I can’t help but wonder if Suzuki’s struggles to produce at EV might be linked to over-usage.

**Context and Deployment**

As expected, Suzuki gets both [offensive and defensive deployments](https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/zoneDeploymentRegular/2223/MTL/wrap) and he’s playing tough minutes against top opposition. In the last two years, he’s the forward that faced the most difficult opposition.

https://preview.redd.it/ispk4tcbspwa1.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e84b3a4ff715febe6531a97bf5bf0218f7b23ee4

**Summary**

Suzuki is a young and talented player who was given great responsibilities in his first season as captain of the Montreal Canadiens. His offence at even strength improved but perhaps at the cost of his defensive plays. A beast on special teams and on shoot-out/penalty shots. He’s struggling to drive plays against top opposition, but then again, may not have the support around him to do so.

I’m actually hoping he gets a little less ice time and responsibilities next year, to see what he could accomplish with a little more rest and perhaps not having to face top opposition every game. I’m also eager to see his defensive game improving, as he was one of the best defensive centre in the league before MSL became head coach.