I just recently finished up my senior year of college, and with that, I finished my final year of baseball. As someone who was extremely competitive on the baseball field, [I really resonated with Brady Singer](https://twitter.com/ColinDeaverTV/status/874374892677976065) and became a fan of his. Even more, I resonated with Singer because like him, I really only threw 2 pitches. Sure, I had a third pitch, but I used it as a show-me pitch more than anything else. Unfortunately, the parallels between Singer and myself do not stop there. Like Singer, I put together 3 solid years of baseball, with my third season being my best by far. Like we’ve seen from Brady Singer, this year the wheels fell off, and my ERA ballooned. Why? For me, it really boiled down to throwing more strikes, and I think that’s what it comes down to for Singer as well.
https://preview.redd.it/7ac2inbf0t1b1.png?width=820&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=d435e3470ed80639422a2f7c9a8d47c15800b0d1
Here’s a look at Brady Singer’s 2023 Baseball Savant page, and it isn’t pretty. He’s giving up a lot of hard hit balls, not throwing a lot of strikes, and not generating a lot of swings and misses. Initially, I thought that he had changed how often he throws his different pitches, however this was wrong as his usage percentages are almost identical from last year to this year. Now, compare this to his 2022 data.
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https://preview.redd.it/yrx8wdhy0t1b1.png?width=832&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e176b9990fbe7c5c2d42093516ce837b660eb21b
Realistically, there isn’t a whole lot different here, and still a lot of blue on the chart. In 2022, when opponents put the ball in play, they tended to hit the ball hard. Somehow, despite this, Singer pitched to a 3.23 ERA and won 10 games. As you probably noticed, the difference between K% and BB% from 2022 to 2023 is massive, and that’s what is causing Singer’s problems this year. Last year, Singer saw a lot of success because he made a ton of competitive pitches, and attacked the zone. When you do this, you’ll give up hard contact, but it makes hitters come into the box prepared and know that you’re going to attack them. Guys will jump you for a double or home run, sure. But I cannot state how important it is to get ahead in the count, or at least throw competitive pitches early in counts. Take a look at [this Fangraphs article from 2020](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-count-is-king-even-after-accounting-for-batter-skill/). In an 0-1 count, batters do 16% worse than their overall batting lines. In an 0-2 count, batters do nearly 40% worse than their overall lines. [Per this 2021 MLB article](https://www.mlb.com/news/hitters-attacking-first-pitch-more-than-ever), at the time it was written, batters were slashing .207/.254/.335 for a .588 OPS in 0-1 counts. Compare this to .247/.375/.427 for a .803 OPS in 1-0 counts. If Singer gets ahead of hitters, pitching becomes much easier because his stuff will play better. This is increasingly important for Singer, who has two pitches make up \~91% of everything he throws.
After so much was talked about the Royals wanting to “raid the zone” this year, it is strange to see Singer struggling so much at it. I am unsure if there is a mechanical issue, or a small, almost unnoticeable tweak to something that has caused this (like the problem was for me). I would hope that the new staff, with far more data and video than I will ever have access to, is able to figure it out.
5 comments
Heard Mike Boddicker on the radio this morning and he said his throwing motion is different than last year.
The Sinker doesn’t sink and the Slider doesn’t slide. His stuff simply stinks.
I think he’s his own worst enemy. He gets in his own head. He’s a perfectionist. When things don’t go his way, he started to get hits off of him.
The whole “Raid the zone” memo must have not gotten to most of our pitchers this year. 2nd overall in the MLB in walks given only behind the A’s who aren’t trying this year.
Can the coaches send out the memo again maybe?
Very interesting.