Pregame Thread: May 28 – Toronto Blue Jays (27-26) @ Minnesota Twins (27-25) – 2:10 PM

4 comments

1. Berrios is gonna shove in his return to Minnesota and Vlad is gonna homer off Ober

2. Jays always seem to create some sort of 9th inning rally. Now perhaps, if they can do that in the innings before the 9th, they might win some more balls games.

3. Everyone can make whatever opinion they want on the trade *(although 2 months in is rather premature)* but can people at least look beyond Batting Average when making such an opinion?

   **Gabriel Moreno (Age 23):**

   * .295/.331/.388/.735 with a .315 wOBA which leads to a 94 wRC+.
   * 20.9 SO% vs. 5.8 BB% and 0.093 ISO and .360 BABIP.
   * 0.6 fWAR and 1.2 bWAR.

   **Alejandro Kirk (Age 24):**

   * .240/.350/.322/.672 with a .306 wOBA which leads to a 96 wRC+.
   * 12.4 SO% vs. 13.1 BB% and 0.083 ISO and .265 BABIP.
   * 0.3 fWAR and 0.2 bWAR.

   **Daulton Varsho (Age 26):**

   * .210/.278/.374/.640 with a .286 wOBA which leads to a 80 wRC+.
   * 21.3 SO% vs. 7.9 BB% and .164 ISO and .231 BABIP
   * 0.4 fWAR and 1.0 bWAR.

   *If you want to look at only the two parties in the trade then you most notice the marginal difference in WAR between the two players as well as the huge difference in BABIP. Despite the huge struggles from Varsho at the plate the value is not far off.*

   If you want to just look at catcher vs. catcher then does Kirk not have some leeway for a 659 AB sample of being one of the best hitting catchers in baseball…but suddenly we made a horrible choice after 121 AB to start this season?

   Moreno is stunning on defence but there are some major concerns with him hitting wise that follow the trends he had shown in the minors. Low BB%, rising SO% and non-existence power.

4. Some thoughts on Varsho/Gurriel/Moreno:

   – When I looked up Moreno’s stats, I noticed that he is (a) hitting .300 and (b) has drawn only eight walks in 136 plate appearances. To me, this suggests that he is still going through his honeymoon period: pitchers haven’t developed a book on him yet, so they’re just throwing their best stuff at him and seeing if he can hit it. He is hitting for average, but it’s noticeable that he isn’t hitting for power. He’s still in the process of becoming the hitter he will be, but that is a disturbing sign.

   – The Jays still have two catchers who are pretty good. It looks bad right now because Jansen is hurt, but Danny is an outstanding pitch caller in the prime of his career. Kirk is only 15 months older than Moreno and has already been to an All-Star game; despite being off his game, his on-base percentage is still higher than Moreno’s.

   – One thing that people haven’t mentioned about Kevin Kiermaier is that, because he plays all-out, he has trouble staying healthy. Except for the 2020 COVID season, the last time he played more than 150 games was 2015. He played in 98 games in 2017. 88 games in 2018, and only 63 games last year. And he’s now 33, so it’s not like he’s going to become less injury-prone. He’s a great outfielder, but a team that employs him needs to have somebody to cover for him. Which leads us to…

   – Daulton Varsho is a really good outfielder, especially given that the D-backs couldn’t decide whether they wanted him to be a catcher or an outfielder. He took good routes to both of the balls that he almost caught yesterday and timed his leap perfectly. It’s just a stroke of bad luck that the first ball bounced off of his glove in the worst possible way, and he just missed the second one. Kiermaier might have caught either or both of those balls, but Kiermaier had just left the game due to an injury, so he wasn’t available.

   – Varsho right now is almost exactly where Teoscar was when the Jays got him: a lot of raw ability but a player who is still learning how to hit. Last year was his first full year in the majors. There’s always the possibility that he might not fill in the holes in his swing, but it took Teoscar two full years to figure out how to lay off breaking pitches outside the zone. It might take Varsho a bit of time to learn how to hit fastballs up and in, which appears to be his weak spot. But the Jays have time: he just starts being arbitration-eligible next year, and he doesn’t become a free agent until 2027.

   – Gurriel is having a great season, and it’s possible that he might have finally figured out how to stay good all year instead of having hot and cold streaks. (He’s on my National League Rotisserie team, so I’m certainly hoping that he stays good all year!) But he’s 29, he’s always had difficulty tracking balls in the outfield, and he will be a free agent after 2024.

   This is a rather long-winded way of saying that I still think it was a good trade, even if it doesn’t work out.