[Dane Moore] A look at the Wolves salary cap situation going forward… – Why retaining Naz + NAW (and/or using the MLE) is complicated this summer – The hard-ish cap (2nd apron) looming in 24-25 – And, ultimately, why it’s financially difficult to picture a Rudy/KAT/Ant/Jaden core long-term

8 comments

1. This is a good and quick breakdown of the Wolves salary cap going forward.

   Either the new owners are going to have to pony up and pay large tax bills or some big moves will need to happen.

   It’s going to be interesting to see which direction this new ownership decides to go.

2. KAT gone, welcome Scoot

3. This is pretty damning of the team’s construction. Our new owners are barely able to afford the team much less shill out big luxury tax bills. I just wish the new CBA gave us an amnesty clause so we can run this team back one more year and cut Rudy at the end of it without it destroying our cap.

4. New cap rules means 2 stars, a decently paid 3rd, and then it gets creative after that. Ant is the first. Hopefully Mcdaniels fills put the “decently paid” 3rd player. I say roll with Gobert as the second max guy and move KAT for a pick (scoot/miller/amen). That player will then hopefully take over the Rudy pay slot when Rudy ages out.

   We know Rudy has been at worst the second best player on multiple 50 win teams.

5. I’d take Naz + NAW even if it meant getting back 70 cents on the dollar for KAT.

6. One thing I’m curious about, because Dane’s interpretation is different than mine (but I assume Dane’s more knowledgeable about this stuff because, well, duh):

   He lists Rudy as being 30.6% of the salary cap in both 2023/24 AND 2024/25, but I believe contracts are percentage based ONLY for the first year and then are subsequently based on internal (to the contract) percent raises (often 5-8 percent). Because the cap usually rises more than that percentage (it went up by about 9% last year), that means a contract should get “cheaper” (relatively speaking) over time.

   In Rudy’s case, Spotrac lists him as making exactly 41 million this year (out of a 134 million cap) which is that 30.6% number. However, Spotrac lists him as making 43.8 million in 2024/25, and if the salary cap raises another 9%, that would be around 146 million. But 30.6% of that cap would actually be 44.7 million, so his actual number appears to be around a million dollars less than Dane’s spreadsheet. It’s really small, but a million dollars could make a very big difference.

   Again, I may be mistaken here — I’m literally using Spotrac figures whereas Dane’s more likely to have internal sources/better info — but I thought I’d note that it’s possible his figures are a smidge off.

   And finally, I want to reiterate what I’ve said in other threads — being beyond the second apron for a year is not a death sentence. A lot of the punitive elements are meant to stop teams from ADDING talent once they’re beyond that figure (like the way the Clippers continue to add money despite being the most expensive roster in the league) but if you’re just just past it with a complete roster that’s a potential contender, then it’s not necessarily going to hurt you. There is the potential pick freeze, but that only really hurts if you’re A) actively trying to trade a pick to upgrade. The real danger starts if you REPEAT past the 2nd apron, but’s wildly unlikely with this Wolves squad (they may drop back under it due to natural cap inflation regardless, and if they needed to offload Gobert’s final year, I’d imagine that would be more doable). I actually think the biggest hurdle is the cost, but if the team is actually a legit contender, maybe they’d be willing to pony up the cash as an investment in future fans.

   I’ll continue to say it over and over again — don’t panic and feel the team MUST deal KAT or CANNOT resign Naz because of potential penalties in a year or two. There is still plenty of time to figure things out.

7. The only reason I have a sliver of hope with keeping the 4 players together is that Gobert is not getting a max contract next time around.

   Next season we can keep the core together and resign Reid and NAW. That leaves 2 years left of Gobert’s contract bringing us over the second apron. If this team can show itself to be a championship contender next year, there is a chance the new ownership bites the bullet.

8. It makes way too much sense to trade KAT. Sorry KAT truthers, but it’s just the reality.

   We need to trade KAT for Scoot Henderson + picks and whatever else we can get. When Scoot is up for an extension, Gobert’s contract will be done.

   Assuming Scoot pans out, we would have max deals for Ant, Jaden and Scoot and nobody is over the age of 27. That is a damn good future imo.

   Obviously lots of issues paying that much to a backcourt + defensive specialist. After Gobert goes our rim protection and rebounding will be very poor. Have to hope we get good role players, sign guys to the MLE, and the picks we get back from a KAT trade pan out, but not sure what we can do now to prepare ourselves for the future.