GAME THREAD: Mets @ Astros – Wed, Jun 21 @ 02:10 PM EDT

3 comments

1. Mets do literally anything consistently well challenge (impossible)

2. Since some people are talking about a rebuild/retool if this season continues like this, here’s my naive take.

   TL;DR I wouldn’t tear it all down, but I’d trade people who are at least somewhat replaceable. Trade anyone on an expiring contract (or one with an option next year) that we can replace even half-assedly with someone from AAA/AA.

   I’d definitely keep **Alvarez, Nimmo, McNeil, Baty** and *probably* **Lindor, Diaz and Senga** as a core to build around. This is a long post, so I’ve bolded the players’ names so you can just skip to whoever you’re looking for.

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   #PLAYERS TO KEEP

   Keep **McNeil** at a minimum, since he’s homegrown and doesn’t have a long contract anyway (expires after 2026, club option for 2027). Technically he’d be in Arb 2 this year and Arb 3 the next, with only two (or three) FA years. $15.7M for what he gives you is a great deal.

   **Lindor** has a 15-team NTC anyway, so it might be hard to move him. It becomes a full NTC in 2026. I know it’s possible to get a player to waive their NTCs, but it’s an extra hurdle. He’s pricey, but not **Verlander/Scherzer** pricey, and I think (despite his low batting average) he gives you good value for money.

   **Nimmo** may seem kinda pricey at $20.5M/year through 2030, but I think he gives you a lot of value for that money, and I think he’ll continue to for the next few years, at least. Even if he has to move to a corner in the latter years of the contract. Plus, he’s homegrown and seemingly likes it here. He has a full NTC effective now.

   **Baty** barely has any service time and is pre-arb until 2026, so he costs next to nothing, and I’d count him as part of a homegrown core to build on. **Alvarez** is pre-arb until 2027.

   Someone like **Diaz** (at ~$20M/year) is probably a luxury for a rebuilding team and if I were being 100% logical, I’d probably say trade him. But the guy is one of a kind, and he seems to like it here. He’s a bit of a question mark for now, because nobody knows if he’ll be 2022 Diaz after his recovery.

   If he’s even 70 percent of what he was last year going forward, he’d still be close to elite. If we plan to be a winning team anytime soon, which I think we can be, he’ll be an asset. He has a full NTC, and a player opt-out after 2025. Then a club option in 2028.

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   #PLAYERS TO TRADE

   **Canha** has a 2024 club option, so he’s got some value in a trade. Same with **Escobar**, who has a $9M club option. **Raley** also has a $6.5M club option for next year.

   **Pham** is a FA after this year, but probably still has some value for a postseason contender as a rental, especially if he continues to put up anything close to the numbers he’s recently been doing. Same with **DRob**. **Otto** has a player option next year. If he can get a little bit more straightened out, someone could want him.

   Some team will find value in **Marte**, who has two years left at $19.5M each. We might have to eat some salary. But while he hasn’t been that good this year, I think he has enough of a positive reputation attached to his name that someone wouldn’t mind grabbing him.

   **Vogey** always seems to land somewhere. Not great, not terrible. He’s just very one-dimensional (well, two) as a player – he (usually) can hit, and he walks a lot. If he recently figured out how to hit home runs again, he’ll be more valuable.

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   #COULD GO EITHER WAY

   We’ve got **Senga** for $15M at least through 2025. He has an opt-out after that. For now I say keep him through at least the start of next year and see how he continues to perform.

   **Drew Smith** is in Arb 2, making $1.3M, and he’s a FA in 2025. I could go either way with him.

   **Jose Quintana** is kind of a wildcard since we haven’t really seen him pitch. We have him through next year for $13M/year. Might be difficult to trade this year.

   I doubt we’d get much of anything for **Cookie**, but he’s gone after this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hangs it up.

   You may have noticed I didn’t mention **Alonso** at all, and *that’s because I don’t know what to do with him*. He’s homegrown and a fan favorite, but he’s a FA after next year. I’d prefer to see him extended rather than traded, but we can’t negotiate something with him by the beginning of next season, he may unfortunately be a trade candidate in 2024.

3. * The 2023 Mets are 34-39 in the regular season. The Mets have scored 329 runs and allowed 342 runs. The Mets have played in 9,721 regular season games with 4,686 wins, 5,027 losses and eight ties. The Mets were 101-61 in 2022.  The Mets are 130-133 on Wednesdays, 6-6 this season. The Mets are 15-19 in day games, 19-20 at night.

   * The Mets are 261-317 and one tie against the Houston Astros. The Mets are 21-29 at Minute Maid Park all-time. The Mets are 17-15 at home and 17-24 on the road this season.

   * The Mets are 21-8 when scoring first, 13-31 when the opponent scores first. The Mets are 27-16 when scoring four or more runs, 7-23 when scoring three or fewer runs.

   * The Mets are tied with Oakland with 44 hit by pitch to lead the majors. The Mets led the majors last year with 112 HBP.

   * Mark Canha has a .417 on-base percentage in the last seven days.

   * Pete Alonso has 168 homers for the Mets. Pete Alonso is fifth in franchise history behnd Darryl Strawberry (252 homers), David Wright (242 homers), Mike Piazza (220 homers) and Howard Johnson who had 192 homers. Of course Pete Alonso would have had many more homers had the 2020 season was not limited to 60 games.

   * Mets pitchers have allowed 102 homers, fourth in the majors. Oakland has allowed 111 homers followed by Colorado with 108 homers and Toronto with 103 homers. Mets pitches have a collective 4.81 FIP.