Buy or Sell? A look around the league.

There has been lots of talk about whether the Sox should buy or sell but it has been entirely focused on how the team is doing. But when it comes to the trade deadline it takes two (or three) to tango so what is happening in the rest of the league matters just as much. I figured I would poke around a bit and game out a few buy/sell scenarios based on what is going on around baseball. Take a look at the current Fangraphs power rankings if you want to play along. [https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-june-19-25/](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-june-19-25/)

**Sellers**

The Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox, Cardinals, Pirates, Mets, White Sox, Tigers, Nats, As, Royals, and Rockies all have a below 25% chance to make the playoffs. I doubt the Mariners will sell and the Cubs are just under the threshold at 22% chance to make the playoffs so one hot week will push them out of this group. The Nats, As, Royals, and Tigers don’t have much to sell. The Red Sox are only 3 games out of a wild card slot so it may be hard for them to sell. That leaves **White Sox, Cardinals, Pirates, and Mets as the best bets to sell who have some assets worth buying.** All in all that suggests the Sox should bias toward selling given that this looks like a seller’s market. Lucas Giolito might well be the best pitcher available so you may be able to get a team to overpay.

**Buyers**

Obviously, with so few definite sellers there are a lot of buyers out so I am not gonna list them all. If we want to buy, we need to focus on a few areas of need and see what the sellers might have to offer. We also have to acknowledge the rather limited assets we have to buy with and the significant $$s constraints. Sure if the Padres collapse and try to shop Soto he would be a big help…but we don’t have the money or the prospects to land him. So what might be plausible?

Needs: RF, 2nd base (sound familiar?)

St. Louis: Tyler O’Neil, Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edmon

Tyler O’Neil has been injured but is coming back soon. He has had some high highs and low lows in his time with the Cards and only has one year of arb left. If he comes back and is healthy I think he will be on the move. The baseball trade simulator puts his value at 6.4 which means we could get him for a Jose Rodriguez-type prospect. Carlson hasn’t hit much but he is a switch hitter and would play a helluva right field. He would be more expensive (Think Colas + Ramos) and has some downside at the plate but is a solid option.

Pirates: Connor Joe

Mets: Tommy Pham

Two journeymen who are playing decently on short-term deals. Both would help right field a lot. Joe has more team control so he would be more expensive.

**Conclusion**

I think buying either Pham or O’Neil could make sense as limited efforts to try to take this shit division. If we go on a streak and are competing close to the trade deadline they could be good options. Otherwise, I think we should sell sell sell given the limited number of teams who will be willing to sell at all. Gio, a resurgent Lynn, bullpen pieces (though there will be more of those out there than I’ve noted here), and even someone like Eloy (as sad as that be) could all get some good returns that could help in 2024.

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