Overview: Commanders Stadium in Loudoun, VA

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In this post I’m going to preview the Loudoun Quarries stadium site which is believed to be the likely Virginia stadium location. Based on prior leaks regarding a Virginia stadium site, the team seeks the following with a potential site:

* Stadium with a “translucent” stadium akin to SoFi Stadium
* Training facilities
* Team offices
* 14,000 seat amphitheater
* Hotel
* Conference Center
* Residential buildings
* Mixed-use retail
* Amphitheater
* Public transit accessibility, preferably WMATA (metro)

Based upon the prospectus that Josh Harris sent to potential investors, the potential stadium locations mentioned are:

* TBD Virginia site
* FedEx Field site
* RFK Stadium site

Furthermore, on John Keim’s podcast released 7/17/23 – he dropped the following nuggets of information about new ownership:

* FedEx Field will receive updates to likely help it stay operational and respectable until 2030
* The land in Ashburn, which includes the practice facility, will likely be sold in the next few years but the team will stay in Virginia as they received a special license to operate a sports book in Virginia as long as their HQ is in Virginia. The new location would be somewhere with quick access to the airport and hospitals.
* The RFK site is not in the lead for a new stadium but it has more viability if the RFK lease between DC and the Federal Government gets an extension – however, then there are hurdles with DC Council and the Mayor agreeing to the usage of the land. If that all goes well, the team and Mayor’s office would need to agree on financials with development.
* A stadium site likely isn’t announced until early summer of 2024 to allow Virginia, Maryland, and DC to go through their legislative sessions and make competitive offers.
* The area near Oxon Hill & National Harbor is attractive with the potential Blue Line Loop extension. Unfortunately, the delay between now and completion (potentially 2040) provides a barrier. Due to this, the current potential Maryland site is still believed to be FedEx 2.0 in collaboration with the Blue Line Corridor initiative.

These nuggets are noteworthy as we already know the team, in an ideal situation, would have the practice facility, business offices, and stadium all within a close distance for synergy and convenience – as that has been evident in all released site plans for a new stadium site. Loudoun County, VA also has the close proximity to an airport with Dulles and multiple hospitals in the surrounding areas. Regarding returning to the District, I think the DC Council will never agree with Mayor Bowser’s office to provide an attractive stadium package which will leave Virginia and Maryland to battle for a stadium site. Maryland, unless the provide an aggressive package centered around National Harbor/Oxon Hill, likely won’t be anything else besides a bargaining chip with Virginia.

**Virginia Site – Loudoun Quarries**

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Virginia, in my personal opinion, will provide the most team-friendly package as they already appear to have state and local-level support which was only diminished by a universal hatred for Dan Snyder. Unlike with other jurisdictions, both Virginia’s state and Loudoun County officials have consistently spoken in a positive manner about a potential stadium development. It’s also no secret that the fanbase has largely centered around Virginia as Maryland is divided with Baltimore Ravens fans. Even with Snyder, the Virginia legislature was prepared to stealthily offer up-to $1B in incentives before a reporter discovered the details which led to immense public backlash.

While the prospectus didn’t specifically state the Loudoun Quarries site would be the Virginia location, it’s been reported by those such as John Keim that Loudoun would be the targeted site should the stadium be in Virginia. Based on previous reporting from the [Richmond Times](https://richmond.com/sports/professional/virginia-turns-up-the-heat-in-race-for-new-washington-football-team-stadium/article_ea8136a5-4e4c-5f02-ae55-9c1c9ff60682.html) and the Locked on Commanders podcast, Loudoun Quarries is the mutual preference over the other Virginia site options. Virginia wants to see more developments in areas like Loudoun County which can shift the gravitational center of the DMV. The Loudoun Quarries location for a Commanders stadium would be part of a 227-acre development that is headlined by a 54-acre lake. Located east of Route 28 near Dulles International Airport, it would be serviced by Innovation Center metro station (Silver Line). The land, part of the potential Waterside development, is currently owned by Chantilly Crushed Stone and has previously been a target of the team – as they offered $400 but were turned down. This likely wouldn’t be an issue in the future if the offer was part of a joint effort between new ownership, state officials, and local officials instead of the team independently attempting to acquire the land.

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Presumably, there would be leftover ideas from the Waterside project which could be repurposed for a potential stadium site. Waterside was divided into five districts:

* Town Center District – Mixed-use center area with office, entertainment, retail, hotel, theater, and residential developments
* Town Square District – Office and residential area with retail, grocery store, a school, library, and further retail and restaurants around the lake
* Lake Point District – Southern area of the lake that’s closest to the Innovation Station metro lake with retail and hotel, viewed as a welcome point to the development
* Lakeside District – Recreation park space and specialty retail along the eastern edge of the development site which aligns Route 606
* Centennial District – Community-focused area with a county park or elementary school, fire/rescue facility, and preserved wetlands

Based on the site plan for a Commanders stadium, the stadium and practice facilities would override Waterside’s intentions for the Town Square District and Lakeside District. This would mean removing any leftover Waterside plans that included several communal aspects such as a park, school, library, grocery store, and certain mixed-use buildings. However, these ideas could survive with another proposed development immediately south of where the Commanders stadium site would be…known as Rivana at Innovation Station.

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[Rivana](https://biz.loudoun.gov/innovationstation/), a 79-acre site, would have apartments or condo units, office spaces, commercial spaces, civic-use spaces, public parks, a hotel, and potentially a school. The development is planned to be anchored by a “Village Center” and a “Village Plaza” which will help create a miniature city center around the Innovation Center metro station. The timeline for completion would be the mid-2030s as an early-side estimate for completion.

**Transit to Innovation Center – General Overview**

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Assuming the stadium wouldn’t be completed until the 2031-32 or 2032-33 seasons, a benefit would be completion of several transit projects:

* Purple Line
* [Various](https://www.virginiadot.org/projects/northern%20virginia/default.asp) infrastructure initiatives

Based upon Google Maps, the expected duration from key metro spots to Innovation Center compared to Morgan Boulevard (closest metro station to FedEx Field) is the following:

* Metro Center to Innovation Center is 50 minutes
* 30 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* Franconia-Springfield to Innovation Center is 1 hour & 20 minutes
* 1 hour to Morgan Boulevard
* New Carrollton to Innovation Center is 1.5 hours
* 42 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* Glenmont to Innovation Center is 1.5 hours
* 1 hour to Morgan Boulevard
* Shady Grove to Innovation Center is 1.5 hours
* 1 hour & 11 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* Vienna to Innovation Center is 50 minutes
* 1 hour to Morgan Boulevard
* Branch Ave to Innovation Center is 1 hour & 20 minutes
* 49 minutes to Morgan Boulevard

Based upon Google Maps, the expected duration by car from key locations around the team’s fanbase compared to Morgan Boulevard (closest metro station to FedEx Field) would be the following:

* Annapolis, MD to Innovation Center is 1 hour & 5 minutes
* 31 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* Frederick, MD to Innovation Center is 1 hour
* 1 hour to Morgan Boulevard
* Laurel, MD to Innovation Center is 45 minutes
* 25 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* Silver Spring, MD to Innovation Center is 40 minutes
* 28 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* NoMa to Innovation Center is 40 minutes
* 23 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* Metro Center to Innovation Center is 35 minutes
* 25 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* Downtown DC (Farragut Square) to Innovation Center is 30 minutes
* 30 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* Alexandria, VA to Innovation Center is 40 minutes
* 24 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* Ashburn, VA to Innovation Center is 15 minutes
* 1 hour to Morgan Boulevard
* Manassas, VA to Innovation Center is 27 minutes
* 1 hour to Morgan Boulevard
* Roanoke, VA to Innovation Center is 3.5 hours
* 4 hours to Morgan Boulevard
* Richmond, VA to Innovation Center is 2 hours
* 2 hours to Morgan Boulevard
* Norfolk, VA to Innovation Center is 3.5 hours
* 3 hours & 20 minutes to Morgan Boulevard
* Charles Town, WV to Innovation Center is 50 minutes
* 1.5 hours to Morgan Boulevard

\* These are all with favorable/green traffic levels

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Overall, transit to Loudoun would be further for many fans compared to the current stadium location unless you’re in certain areas of Virginia or the western part of DC. However, this isn’t the worst situation as [market research](https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/investigations/commanders-stadium/washington-commanders-daniel-snyder-fan-erosion-new-stadium-virginia-maryland-dc/65-a296edc0-36e6-48bb-afbe-827aa876d0f2) claims 1.6 million Commanders fans are in Virginia while 1.1 million are in Maryland. Per [U.S. News](https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/slideshows/richest-counties-in-america?onepage), Northern Virginia has four counties within the top 10 of “richest” counties in the United States…Loudoun County (1), Falls Church (2), Fairfax County (5), and Arlington County (8) which makes the area an attractive space to concentrate influence. A stadium which is located in Northern Virginia could create less friction for wealthier Virginia residents thus a higher volumes of premium seat sales.

The new stadium has been said to target 55K – 60K seats but it’s possible that Josh Harris aims for a stadium with the capability to expand seating capacity to the minimum 70K required to host a Super Bowl. A 65K stadium with the capacity to expand to 70K isn’t unreasonable, as the league average for attendance is 68K. Washington, based on historical attendance and market strength, should be able to reach “average” attendance numbers under new ownership. Unfortunately, the Baltimore Ravens may gain a supermajority market share of fans based out of Maryland.