With the departure of Lucas Giolito & ReyLo (for a surprisingly good return, all things considered), I was curious about the stats of our other two pitchers who have popped up in trade rumors as well, Dylan Cease & Lance Lynn.
Since June 1st, Dylan Cease is 3rd in the entire MLB in Whiff Rate at 37.5%, and Lance Lynn is 7th in the entire MLB in Whiff Rate at 34.3%.
Obviously, both of their ERA’s are up year-over-year, but I would expect regression for both of their ERA’s if their whiff rate keeps up. Also, Lance Lynn has an incredibly high HR/FB rate of 21.5%… which is obviously not good. But I think that’s unsustainable and will go down a little bit, which could provide relief to his ERA.
Out of the two, I think Lynn is way more likely to get traded (although the return likely would not be good). Cease would require a massive haul that I just don’t think teams are going to offer. But curious what you guys think about this. Will either of them be traded? Do you guys want to keep Cease?
You can check the stats provided in this post at the [Baseball Savant Statcast](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPTM=&hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=foul\.\.tip|swinging\.\.strike|swinging\.\.strike\.\.blocked|&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2023|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2023-06-01&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=200&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_game_date_gt=on&chk_swings=on#results) site here.
2 comments
All this Lance Lynne shit is mind boggling. Like wow yeah he strikes people out but he also throws 10 cheeseburgers at 92 right now the middle every game and lets up 7 runs.
Lynn will for sure be traded. And the Sox are apparently telling teams “No” on Cease.
Cease is a tough call. Sox control him for 2024 and 2025 and that’s it. It’s almost a guarantee he’s gone after that given his agent – Boras – and the Sox refusal to give pitchers long term deals.
If the Sox are going to truly try to compete in 2024, then keeping Cease makes the most sense. But ”truly try” is the key phrase there. An off-season to make this team a real contender looks something like signing two of Snell, Montgomery, Nola, Urias, Giolito (that ship has probably sailed but who knows), plus another lesser arm.
It also involves finding *at least* one high OBP guy – ideally two. That’s an even bigger lift because the hitters market is weak and there’s not a lot of great positional fits. They’d probably have to get creative and sign an OF, then use Colas as a trade chip for pitching.
If the Sox are going to commit to that level of effort to try to compete, then keep Cease and hope to get the most of our him the next two years and take the comp pick when he walks.
If they’re gonna half-ass their attempt, making no offensive upgrades and relying on internal improvements while signing a few back-end starters, then they might as well move Cease in the off-season and try to get two young arms to add to the Schultz/Cannon/Mena/Pallette/etc mix and hope to form a new core beginning in 2025.