[https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/7/31/23813358/oklahoma-city-thunder-offseason-sam-presti](https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/7/31/23813358/oklahoma-city-thunder-offseason-sam-presti)
I thought this was pretty interesting. My suspicion is that there are a lot more variables that will be considered when they’re thinking about whether it’s a good idea to accelerate the timeline for competitiveness… I \*don’t\* think there’s any number of wins that will convince the FO that it’s a good time to push all in… But also… I think a consolidation trade is probably (necessarily) somewhere on the horizon—particularly with the punitive thresholds of the new CBA—and I also get a little worried that the wrong fit could negate lots of the positive synergies that the team has already developed…
I feel like Pascal Siakam could be a good fit (can’t be targeted on D, can spread the floor a bit, create for himself a bit and keeps the ball moving) and I think Dame (though a better player) probably wouldn’t have been a great fit.
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Pascal is already 29 years old and on an expiring contract. Unless you’re getting him for a song at the deadline to make a push this year, it’s tough to find the value proposition there. You really want to be the team paying him a max or near-max as he starts to decline? Especially if you re-sign him, now you’re paying him 30-35% of the cap when a rookie contract max is only 25% of the cap. It only exacerbates the “too many big contracts” problem.
In addition, when people say “consolidation trade”, what exactly is being consolidated? Young talent? Because those picks in 5-7 years are exactly what you need in order to keep funneling in cost-controlled talent around what you hope is your competitive core. You aren’t cashing those picks in unless you think you can win a championship right now, this year, and only if you do so.
Look at what Denver is doing – they have a championship core (obviously). So in order to maximize that, they’re trading away future assets for cost-controlled talent today (Thunder picks). Sam is trying to get in front of that potential problem by making sure he has those future assets (like that Nuggets pick) so that when the roster is capped out, a cheap first round pick can be added to the core.
It’s pretty clear that what Sam is doing is an attempt to build a team with a long runway of assets so he can figure out where the market inefficiencies are. I expect to see those assets used for young talent, additional “kick the can down the road” asset accumulation, and only once the team is competing for a championship will it be for “the last piece”.
And as much fun as it is to speculate about this team, as bullish as I am about the roster fit and the young talent, there’s still questions up and down the roster. Can Shai stay healthy? Can Giddey shoot? Can JDub play the four? Can Chet handle the ball and/or play the 5 full-time? Can Dort improve his efficiency? What exactly are Ous and Poku, and can they contribute to a championship?
You can ask those questions about nearly every player on the roster, because the vast majority of them have two years or less of NBA experience. I personally think JDub is a star and a fantastic running mate next to SGA. But what if I’m wrong? The team has to figure that out first.
This was many words, apologies. I just love this team and spend too much time thinking about it. But ultimately I don’t think Sam is going to be drying his tears with dollar bills anytime soon – he’s going to be patient and will let the team tell him who they are and when they’re ready.
A consolidation trade is inevitable, but I think too many people assume “consolidation trade” = “a trade involving one or more of OKC’s core pieces being traded for a star-level player.” I don’t think the Thunder are going to go after a guy like Siakam or anybody else at that level. The consolidation I see coming is guys at the end of the rotation being traded for higher value role players.
The Thunder are going to be full of promising young players who deserve playing time, too many for them to handle. And they can’t play 12-13 guys a night forever. So it makes sense to turn 2-3 of those guys into one player who can fill a desired role.
Presti really called out that they are not rushing the timeline… but I love this as a thought exercise!
There has to be an inflection point of high performance that makes the FO reevaluate, right? I think it would be extremely high performance and the accelerating could not short circuit the long term development culture… and it would have to fit Presti’s draft strategy.
That is a lot of “what ifs” but it would be cool if it happened. I expect a very high watermark would be required.
OKC will not trade for any player that is on big money in 2026-2027. Siakam will not join any team that does not offer him a 5 year extension. We have to be prepared to pay Shai/Giddey/Jdub/Chet in 2026-2027 (year1 of Chet+Jdub extensions)