The Reds do not have a “40-man roster crunch” this off-season.

I’ve noticed some people start to warn about an upcoming “40-man roster crunch” that’s happening this offseason, which isn’t actually an issue at all. I’ve written this post in the hopes that it will help explain exactly what the situation is and why it isn’t a problem for the Reds, particularly with regards to “having to trade/lose some of their prospects”.

**Some background:**

The 40-man roster is the roster of all players eligible to be on an active major league roster (aka the 26 or 28-man roster that can play games in the majors). In order to be called up from the minors, *a player must be on this roster*. The Reds current 40-man roster can be found here: https://www.mlb.com/reds/roster/40-man

An important note should be made that players on the 60-day IL do not count towards the 40-man roster limits, allowing teams to have more than 40 players on it during the season. During the offseason, the IL goes away, leading to teams needing to add these players back to their 40-man.

**What happens when the roster is full?**

When the 40-man is full and teams want to add a player to it, they’re required to remove someone. This can be through waivers, trade, or through a process known as “designation for assignment” (AKA dfa). DFAing a player means that a team is given 7 days to trade or waive the player; the player is immediately removed from the 40-man in the process. Players that are waived may be claimed by any other team in the league, meaning that DFAing a player is actually a fairly risky maneuver if it’s someone the team would like to keep; for this reason, teams tend to only DFA players that they are reasonably sure won’t be claimed, or players that they wouldn’t mind losing.

**Why does the 40-man matter this offseason?**

During the offseason, there occurs something called the Rule 5 Draft; this is a draft that allows teams to select any player with over 4 years (if drafted/signed at 19+) or 5 years (if drafted/signed at 18 or younger) of professional experience *who is not currently on a 40-man roster*. This means that every team in baseball has to churn their 40-man every offseason in order to avoid losing good players/prospects to the draft. Some examples of players lost in the Rule 5 draft include Josh Hamilton, Roberto Clemente, Jose Bautista, Johan Santana, and Ryan Pressly (among many others).

**Where do the Reds stand?**

Let’s begin by talking about who is likely removed from the 40-man this offseason. Of the list from above, we can probably include:

Busenitz, Farmer (free agent after this year), Kennedy, Weaver, one of Casali/Maile, Senzel, Newman, and Ramos. Other potential cuts are Hopkins, Duarte, Santillan, Stoudt, Law, Gibaut, Cruz, and Young (depending on how the Reds deal with their pen). That’s 8 “locks” or near-locks for being removed, and a few others that might be removed.

I talked previously about the 60-day IL and how that impacts the 40-man. During the offseason, they have to re-add players back to the roster. Those include:

Antone, Dunn, Greene, Gutierrez, Lodolo, Overton, and Sanmartin. Of this list, the locks to be re-added back are Greene, Lodolo, and Antone. Dunn, Gutierrez, and Sanmartin are likely in similar positions to Law, Gibaut, and Young with regards to being around the fringes of the 40-man, and Overton is likely cut. Let’s say that we need 5 total roster spots.

Now, for the prospects.

The Reds currently have very few prospects that are actually going to be eligible for the upcoming rule 5 draft; most of their top prospects have already been added to the 40-man and are either playing in the major leagues or close. The list of significant prospects that could be drafted in the Rule 5 draft this upcoming offseason are:

Marte

Hinds

Vellojin

Mey

Cerda

Callihan

Karcher

That’s it. Of that list, the only two real locks are Noelvi Marte and possibly Rece Hinds.

So, to take one of the most conservative estimates possible, if the Reds remove 8 guys from the 40-man, add 5 of the players on the 60-day IL, and then add the two locks from their prospects, they’ll *still* have a spot open; remember, that isn’t including anyone from the “possible cuts” list, either, meaning the Reds actually have much more flexibility than this.

**Conclusion**

So, to sum up that giant wall of text above: The Reds don’t have a “40-man roster crunch” coming up this offseason and anyone who attempts to claim otherwise likely either doesn’t understand what they’re talking about or is attempting to criticize the FO with a dishonest argument.

EDIT: I actually missed a few because I was looking at years played and not year drafted.

Phillips, Hurtubise, McGary, Roa, Callihan, Contreras, Bonnin, Acuna, and Confidan are also R5 eligible this offseason. Of that group, the only “definite protects” are Phillips. Hurtubise and Acuna are interesting and might get protected, but that’s about it.