The Blue Jays are in a funk, and it’s entirely their own doing. From the underperformance on the field to the man making the decisions upstairs, things aren’t going great in Toronto right now. It has felt like the Jays have been treading water since May. Fortunate, then, that they’re actually 11 games above .500; even if they are now out of a playoff spot.
The past 10 months of roster and asset management have been… strange. The off-season moves that were made don’t need to be re-litigated right now. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is [having an average season by his standards](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lourdes-gurriel-jr/19238/stats?position=OF). Teoscar Hernandez is having [the worst season of his career](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/teoscar-hernandez/13066/stats?position=OF). Neither of them were going to re-sign here anyway. Meanwhile, Gabriel Moreno has had a [rather poor start to his career](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gabriel-moreno/22664/stats?position=C). For his part, Daulton Varsho has swung a wet noodle all year, but his elite defence [has kept him as a serviceable player](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/daulton-varsho/19918/stats?position=C/OF). And Erik Swanson was finally able to catch his breath over the past few weeks and has [been fairly dominant this year](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/erik-swanson/16587/stats?position=P). That’s to say nothing of Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier, who have each produced more than Hernandez and Gurriel respectively.
But again, this isn’t the time to discuss the off-season moves. The only time to discuss those in earnest will be when Varsho leaves Toronto, and we can compare his tenure to whatever Moreno ends up contributing in Arizona.
Instead, the focus should be on the near-term, both looking behind and looking ahead.
**Trading for Relievers**
This year’s deadline was close to being a disaster for the Blue Jays. Sure, they added a couple of helpful bullpen arms. But that’s essentially all they did, and it wasn’t enough.
In the hours leading up to the trade deadline, the Blue Jays were in the third Wild Card spot, 1.0 game back of Houston, and 1.5 games ahead of Boston. They were also within striking distance of the division, being only 6.0 games back of Baltimore.
The Jays’ needs on August 1 were clear. Given a very recent injury to Bo Bichette, they had to get some help at shortstop. That was the most pressing need given the near-term. But the clear need that they had not addressed all season – and way back into the off-season – was the addition of a middle-of-the-order right-handed bat.
The Jays had made two moves leading up to the deadline. They picked up Genesis Cabrera on July 21, in exchange for Sammy Hernandez. Cabrera has added some much-needed left-handed depth to the bullpen. He’s under control for two more years as well. With all due respect to Hernandez, the Jays gave up very little in this trade.
Next, the Jays went back to the Cardinals for more relief help, this time acquiring Jordan Hicks on July 30. This was a big, bold move. The Jays appeared to have jumped the market, and picked up the best reliever available in the process. In return, they sent Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein, the two anchors of their AA rotation.
The prospect capital used to acquire Hicks is what stands out the most. The current front office has now navigated five trade deadlines in which they were clearly buyers. During that time, they have traded for four rental relievers (Joaquin Benoit, Scott Feldman, Brad Hand, Joakim Soria). Most of those guys came here for peanuts. The only Top-30 prospect traded for any of them was Riley Adams, who was clearly blocked at the time by Danny Jansen, Kirk, and Moreno.
Now, this year, the Jays traded two Top-30 prospects, both of whom are starting pitchers, and both of whom have at times been in the systems’ Top-10 in the past. That’s a far-cry for a General Manager who once spoke excitedly about adding [42 years of control](https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/news/blue-jays-gm-ross-atkins-brags-about-years-of-control-gained-through-trades) at the 2019 deadline.
Since being acquired, Hicks has [an ERA of 5.14 and a FIP of 4.69 across 7.0 innings](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jordan-hicks/19618/game-log?position=P&season=&gds=2023-08-01&gde=2023-08-18&type=0). With 39 games left in the season, he can reasonably be expected to give the Jays another 20.0 innings.
Even if his results are better moving forward, will that have been worth trading Kloffenstein and Robberse for? Perhaps if the Jays make a postseason run. Otherwise, it might be a wash at best. And this isn’t to suggest that Kloffenstein and Robberse would be locks to contribute in Toronto. But they certainly could have been used as trade assets for someone else, either someone with more control or someone who could be more impactful in the short term. Think of trading Jeff Hoffman for Troy Tulowitzki instead of Ben Zobrist.
**Paul DeGone**
Speaking of short term impact, Paul DeJong did not make one. After being [designated for assignment today,](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds) he leaves the Blue Jays with a wRC+ of -77, [the lowest in franchise history for players with at least 40 at bats](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1977&season=2023&qual=40&team=14&sortcol=17&sortdir=asc&pagenum=1). In his 13 games with the Jays, DeJong accumulated a staggering -0.9 fWAR. He was terrible.
The first thing to remember about DeJong is that he was a necessity. The Jays could not afford to have Santiago Espinal play shortstop for three weeks while Bichette was injured. But DeJong failed to meet even the lowest of expectations. The second thing to remember about DeJong is that he was traded for 24-year-old High-A reliever Matt Svanson. DeJong didn’t cost anything.
This is especially important when considering the Jays’ 2023 deadline as a whole. The DeJong trade was not going to happen until Bichette got injured less than 24 hours before the deadline. But Svanson was never going to be a meaningful part of any bigger package for a better player. The Jays didn’t close any doors by trading him. He was a blip.
Which begs the question – why in the love of fuck did the Jays not do anything else?
**Repeated Missed Opportunities**
It’s August 1st. The Jays, as we know, are in the thick of the playoff race. All at once, they’re making a push for the division, while fighting for their Wild Card lives. They are running a record payroll of $250M. Bichette and Guerrero are two years away from free agency.
The offence has been sputtering. It’s no secret. The pitching staff, though, has been excellent. The Jays shore it up further by bringing in Cabrera and Hicks. With the Hicks move, they pushed in more prospect capital for short-term, high-variability help than they ever have before.
It looks like the Jays are going all-in, or at least as close to it as they have since 2015.
And then… nothing. Or [worse than nothing](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/paul-dejong/18015/stats?position=SS).
In his comments to the media after the deadline, [Atkins remarked that:](https://ca.style.yahoo.com/reports-toronto-blue-jays-acquire-174854011.html)
>”A lot of the teams that speculated on potentially moving players didn’t, some of the players that were rumoured to be coming our way or even available, didn’t seem to be as available to us.
Horseshit.
This team was in an enviable position at the deadline. Despite not playing their best baseball all season, they were still *right there.* They needed to add one bat. That’s the same impactful addition that they missed out on in the winter. They had already gone outside of their comfort zone in the Hicks trade. Given the context of where they were in terms of standings, payroll, and competitive window, they surely had to get uncomfortable again. But they didn’t. Any offensive improvements would need to be internal.
**Waves of Talent**
Looking elsewhere in the AL East, it seems like asking for offensive improvement from within your system is fairly commonplace. The Rays do it. The Red Sox do it. The Orioles appear to do it every week.
That’s what Jays fans were promised a few years ago.
Throughout his tenure, Atkins has discussed having [waves of talent](https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/blue-jays-gm-says-he-will-need-at-least-three-weeks-to-fill-manager-position-1.4118380) to supplement the Major League roster. We saw that first wave come crashing through in 2019, when Guerrero, Bichette, and Biggio all arrived. Then, in 2020, Kirk made his debut. A lone ripple. In 2021, it was Manoah. The last drop.
Since then, we were treated to Davis Schneider’s debut a couple of weeks ago. That’s pretty much been it.
The front office has placed tremendous emphasis on player development in recent years, highlighted by their player development complex in Dunedin. Their efforts on this front started off incredibly strong in 2019. But since then, they have sputtered.
Some of that has been by design. Trades aren’t always as cheap as DeJong’s. The Jays shipped out considerable assets to bring in Jose Berrios, Matt Chapman, and Varsho. Those moves obviously depleted the system. But they haven’t been able to fill in for those departures. Four years on from their 2019 class, their farm system [ranks 25th per MLB Pipeline](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-rankings?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage).
The lack of talent emerging in the minors begs an uncomfortable question: are these guys just not very good at developing players? Their drafting appears to be quite good on an annual basis. They hit on Guerrero and Bichette, but that wasn’t particularly hard to do. Kirk and Manoah have significant question marks. Schneider has two weeks in the Majors. What else do they have to show for nearly eight years of player development? A few high-end prospects who they have traded for established Major Leagues before the prospects lost their lustre.
Now, that isn’t to diminish some of the current more intriguing names in the system. Spencer Horwitz and Addison Barger come to mind. The problem, though, is that these guys don’t seem to have a viable path to the Majors. Biggio and Espinal have job security (earned for Biggio, more questionable for Espinal). Whit Merrifield isn’t being replaced, and might even be back next year. Orelvis Martinez is likely to be promoted as the next third baseman of the future. So Horwitz and Barger can’t get their shot to prove themselves in the Majors. Then, next year, the Jays will only have two seasons left with this core. Will they be comfortable going into the season with a player (or two) with no Major League experience manning 2nd and/or 3rd base? Unlikely. The more likely scenario is that Horwitz and Barger end up playing for someone else, as the Jays sign stop-gap solution, while another wave of talent crests before ever reaching Toronto.
**[Insert Witty Ross (Sh)Atkins Pun That the Sub Will Love]**
Atkins hasn’t built this roster the way we thought he would.
It was generally accepted – rightly or wrongly – that the Guardians’ approach to roster construction would happen in Toronto, but with a bigger budget. We haven’t seen that happen. Instead, we’ve seen the Jays take more of a page out of the Dodgers’ book. The Jays have been aggressive in free agency, without dipping into the very top of the market. And the Jays have been aggressive in the trade market, making a couple of big splashes along the way.
Where the Jays differ from the Dodgers is their ability to complement their roster internally. Atkins was expected to do that on a consistent basis, but instead, he has built his team by injecting more and more money into it, not homegrown talent.
That isn’t necessarily the wrong way to go about things, especially if it eventually leads to a pennant. But it is unexpected.
**What Comes Next?**
The problem for Atkins – and one of the reasons why his lack of urgency at the deadline is all the more confusing – is that he might not get the chance to see if his approach is ultimately the best one.
The Jays are not in a playoff spot right now. That would have been almost unimaginable at the start of the season. The odds are still good that they *will* make the playoffs, with Fangraphs giving them [a 58.4% chance](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds), ahead of Seattle’s 48.8% chance. That isn’t where they were supposed to be, though.
If the Jays miss the playoffs, then Atkins will be fired. That shouldn’t be controversial. He has had too much time – and not enough of a window remaining after this year – to be given a mulligan.
The more interesting question, though, is what happens if the Jays make the playoffs. Atkins almost certainly won’t be fired in that scenario. That wouldn’t necessarily be a wrong choice, either. For all of the problems highlighted here, you have to acknowledge that he has built the best pitching staff in baseball (and one of the best in franchise history), that he has been able to get Rogers to spend to unprecedented levels, and that his drafting remains very good, even if his player development hasn’t been.
That being the case, then, Atkins would have a mountain of an off-season to navigate. Decisions would need to be made on possible replacements for Kiermaier, Belt, Chapman, and Merrifield. He would also need to figure out how to inject some much-needed offence, while attempting to balance this with the two things the Jays do extremely well – pitching and defence. On top of that, Bichette needs a long-term contract, and Guerrero needs a new hitting coach.
Can Atkins do all of that? Maybe. If he’s going to, then 2023 – and the deadline in particular – should be a lesson that he needs to move even further outside of his comfort zone, and get aggressive. The Jays are *almost* built to win right now. That crucial missing piece has evaded them for almost a year. Go find it.
26 comments
That’s a lot of reading, maybe even a little too much for me. Having not read it my assumption of the TLDR is blue jays are underperforming and it starts from both the top and bottom. A reverse hourglass, if you will.
Anyways, would you like a frosty with that?
Lock up Bo Bichette this off season then worry about everything else.
This is a good write-up. Well done.
>”A lot of the teams that speculated on potentially moving players didn’t, some of the players that were rumoured to be coming our way or even available, didn’t seem to be as available to us.
Horseshit
What big bats were moved at the deadline? It seemed clear that Atkins wanted Teo and the mariners were not gonna trade him to a team they are trying to catch. Josh bell, Ji-man Choi, Tommy Pham, and Jake Burger were traded. Choi has sucked this year and is a first base. Bell was underwhelming in cleveland and is first base. Burger might be the best hitter mentioned but plays 3rd base so on this team he would have been strictly a DH which messes with what they like to do with the DH spot. Tommy Pham would have fit great but we do not know how the negotiations went down maybe they did not like our lower tier prospects or whatever. The way the offence has been this year one bat would not come fucking close to fixing it unless it was like a superstar none of which were available.
Where’s the TLDR?
If the jays miss the playoffs, whether deserving or not Atkins is definitely gone and I imagine a fairly large overhaul of the coaching staff.
I’m not too worried about the long term of the team as I think we still have a lot of the core pieces here (they just need to be locked up long term) but yah it will be an interesting off season to say the least if the jays miss the playoffs.
Also go sign Joc next season please and thank you.
Did you just use the fangraphs image for your post?
Edit: as in, was this posted to fangraphs or you used the image because that’s where you drew the data?
I agree, the trading of valuable prospects for rentals was against the current management’s model. There was the story that Shapiro criticized Anthopolus for doing exactly that.
This change to me feels like Atkins knows that this is his last chance for a meaningful post season. Unfortunately he wasn’t able to make a substantial roster impact at the deadline.
I still think the Varsho trade was an overpay as there were free agent options to fill that role. We could have used Moreno and the 2 pitchers for Hicks for other, better opportunities.
Sadly, I think we barely miss the playoffs and we see Atkins fired
This article is like the recaps you skip on Netflix
This is a level-headed perspective which lacks knee-jerk whining. I thought I wasn’t on Reddit for a couple minutes. Thanks for taking the time.
It is hard to call this low effort bait, but it is definitely bait and quite banal. Fuck off OP and all the other doomers infecting this sub.
MODS PLEASE DO SOMETHING TO BAN THESE LOSERS
>But that’s essentially all they did, and it wasn’t enough
I stopped reading there, because
a) no way to know that just yet
and
b) weren’t you still adamant they were winning the division, like, earlier this week?
Good writeup. Their pitching has been incredible this year, bullpen included. I felt they needed a big bat at the deadline and said as much. They really, really needed someone to add depth to the middle of their lineup.
Over the last couple weeks with Bo out and others struggling we see how thin the lineup really is. And I agree about the minors being thin, as we see the Reds and O’s calling up players, we call up Schneider to play a few games and then ride the pine. No one down there that they believe can start, I suppose. Otherwise we would’ve seen Barger come up for Bo.
Hopefully Bo’s return gets the offense going or their toast. I’d be fascinated to see a Fangraphs writeup on this team, it’s incredible how equally disappointing the lineup has been almost across the board. It’s a bizarre thing that actually makes me believe it IS a coaching issue for once.
The Mariners played Atkins like a fool, leaving Hernandez dangling to be dealt back only for the last minute take him away to ensure that the Jays would be left floundering while the Mariners make a play off push.
thqp slowly turning into the joker this season has been one of the few highlights, ngl
The comparison with the varsho trade shouldn’t be with what moreno and gurriel are producing with Arizona, but compared to what other player you could’ve gotten instead.
Buying high on a guy like varsho using some decent trade pieces never made sense to me
I’m surprsied you didn’t get voted into oblivion, this sub loves Atkins and his lack of results similar to Kyle Dubas.
Great writeup and analysis. Agree with pretty much everything you said. This sub is at its best when we have well thought-out, critical and realistic discussions around our team and the FO.
I understand that the “everything sucks, fire everyone” crowd and the “everything is fine, it’s early, this will all turn around how dare you criticize the team” crowd are just a part of every sports sub in existence, but its been quite a lot lately and really driven down my engagement.
Although it obviously doesn’t help that this is one of the most frustrating Jays teams in ages.
It’s clear the problem with develop is a lack of a true direction on both hitting and pitching side. All good development teams have a clear objective that’s repeatable on both offense and defense.
Dodgers emphasize TTO on offense, they get guys who walk and hit home runs. On pitching, they like big fasts ball and tunneling on pitching with swing and miss secondaries. Rays always get guys with big fastballs, and tunnel off their secondaries, with a swing and miss approach. Guardians consistently get good control guys and improve their stuff in pro ball.
The Shapiro/Atkins approach to development just does not make a lot of sense. What do they value in pitching? It’s a mix of tunneling, swing and miss like Gausman to extreme soft pitch to contact like Ryu and Bassitt. What do they value in hitters? It’s a range of some for defense, like Varsho and kiermaier, some for bat to ball and speed like Merrifield, and some occasional extremely athlete with no skills like Bradley Zimmer or Derek Fisher.
It’s pretty clear all the good development teams have an exact type they want on offense and defense, but the Shapiro/Atkins FO does not have any clear directions in offense or defense
Very interesting and thoughtful piece. I agree with so much of what you wrote. The one exception would be in regards to the wave of talent. Guerrero was an international signing by Alex Anthopoulos. Please don’t give credit to Atkins.
Anthopoulos could and can out trade, out maneuver, out smart Atkins and company any day.
I’ve thought that we are not a good development team for a while. We are good at trades imo. We are good at pitching tweaks in the majors. We just have to spend too much in prospects and money for pitching. You can’t be a perennial contender like this.
You sound like an idiot.
This sums up basically all of my thoughts. Around the lack of following through on their commitments and early indications of success in the player development department. Around the failure of a trade deadline due to lack of continued aggression. And around their really complicated future.
Mostly agree with what you said but a few things come to mind in response:
With the pitchers they gave up for Hicks: Based on their track-record of trades my first thought was: What do they know that no one else does? Almost every prospect they’ve moved in major deals has ended up flaming out or doing worse in other organizations. They seem to have very good knowledge of their own prospects and move guys out before others catch on that there is a major flaw with them. I also wonder if we would have been mad about the price they would have needed to pay for one of those bats they needed. If the Jays system isn’t great, then I’m sure the ask is a Martinez/Barger/Horwitz and I don’t think anyone wants to see those moved for a rental bat.
If Merrifield, Belt, Chapman and Kiermaier are all potentially on their way out, how is there no room for Barger and Horwitz? Also, has Martinez established himself as being that much better than Barger that Martinez will be handed the third base job ahead of him?
Honestly, even if they miss the playoffs, I’d be upset if Atkins is fired. This team is good and it’s close. Their bullpen is electric, their rotation is great and the lineup should be better. There just aren’t many GMs out there that I trust. I don’t know if you’re going to find an upgrade on Atkins. The only upgrade on Atkins I can think of is that guy in Atlanta, but I have a feeling he’s not leaving that job and if he did, I don’t think Toronto would be high on his list.
Very thoughtful piece. I have long wondered: how much of player development is just luck? Teams obviously have an advantage if they are terrible for multiple years and can draft a top pick each year. But, apart from that, are there teams that are better at developing low first-round picks or later-round picks?
I’m thinking that it’s impossible to tell which of a batch of athletic high school and college seniors are going to make it through the weeding process of the minor leagues. The washouts are merely in the 99th percentile of baseball ability instead of the 99.9th percent or the 99.99th percent.
that was a great read, thanks