His epa per play has been low so far. I think it’s from the sacks he’s been taking
Teams so far are selling out taking away the deep ball. Part of the reason why we were able to run the ball down Minnesota’s throat. (Well and their awful defense helped). He’s taking what they’re giving him, unfortunately we haven’t really been able to punish defenses with YAC plays. But that’ll come. I will say he does seem like he has heavier feet in the pocket so far this year, doesn’t have the same escapability. But I predict once we continue to establish the run, the deep shots will open up.
He’s definitely been thrown off by the high amount of 8 man drops, cover 6 etc. He needs to learn how to navigate the pocket for these lower rushes, while keeping his eyes downfield for the right timing. Not saying it’s easy, but I feel like with some practice he can pick this apart.
It says it’s counting rushes on the vertical axis, I’d imagine any number of draws and other failed rpos are hurting him badly there
Stop with these terrible designed runs and his epa/play will be fine
This comes down to knowing how EPA/play is calculated. EPA/play basically only looks at 1D, TD, SK, and TO (other plays simply do not affect EPA enough to have a heavy influence on it).
Passing, he converts pass attempts into 1D at a 17.9% clip and into TD at a 3.6% clip. He has an 11.1% SK rate (abysmal) and a 1.8% INT rate (fine).
Rushing, he converts rush attempts into 1D at a 23.8% clip and into TD at a 9.5% clip. He also has one fumble lost.
To compare this to Hurts last year:
Pass 1D%: 31.1% (2022) vs. 17.9% (2023)
Pass TD%: 4.8% (2022) vs. 3.6% (2023)
SK: 7.6% (2022) vs. 11.1 (2023)
INT: 1.3% (2022) vs. 1.8% (2023)
Rush 1D%: 32.7% (2022) vs. 23.8% (2023)
Rush TD%: 7.9% (2022) vs. 9.5% (2023)
Fumbles: 2 lost in 15 games (2022) vs. 1 lost in 2 games (2023)
So…yeah. Hurts is down across the board (except for Rush TD%). Quite frankly, other than the INT% and Rush TD%, these numbers are really bad. I think this also explains why Eagles fans are kinda skittish right now even though they’re 2-0. Hurts is playing really poorly, and while the team overall is good enough to steal wins even with him playing like this, it’s not really a recipe for season-long or playoff success.
What’s EPA
Banned from /r/toprightjalen
He’s been doing a lot of very short passes. There have been a few deep balls that have been caught, but I think the bundle of dump-offs to RBs drives up the completion pct. I’d like to see more passes over the middle
Jalen just has to stop bailing out of clean pockets. He does it occasionally when he doesn’t do it, he’s an incredible QB.
Its been two weeks. C’mon, are you realy listening to a chart that has Mahomes in strictly mid tier?
There is no freaking way I believe that Jalen Hurts’ play has cost us points versus an expected average. Sometimes analytics are just bs.
I mean all those passes in the flat for -1 to +1 yards will do that.
We’re really looking at these types of stats 2 games into the season on a short week and with a new OC? I realize people love their data, but none of this means anything until we get at least a few more games into the season. Even if we didn’t have a new OC and it wasn’t a short week, 2 games is still way too small of a sample size to mean anything.
15 comments
Source: https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/
His epa per play has been low so far. I think it’s from the sacks he’s been taking
Teams so far are selling out taking away the deep ball. Part of the reason why we were able to run the ball down Minnesota’s throat. (Well and their awful defense helped). He’s taking what they’re giving him, unfortunately we haven’t really been able to punish defenses with YAC plays. But that’ll come. I will say he does seem like he has heavier feet in the pocket so far this year, doesn’t have the same escapability. But I predict once we continue to establish the run, the deep shots will open up.
He’s definitely been thrown off by the high amount of 8 man drops, cover 6 etc. He needs to learn how to navigate the pocket for these lower rushes, while keeping his eyes downfield for the right timing. Not saying it’s easy, but I feel like with some practice he can pick this apart.
It says it’s counting rushes on the vertical axis, I’d imagine any number of draws and other failed rpos are hurting him badly there
Stop with these terrible designed runs and his epa/play will be fine
This comes down to knowing how EPA/play is calculated. EPA/play basically only looks at 1D, TD, SK, and TO (other plays simply do not affect EPA enough to have a heavy influence on it).
Passing, he converts pass attempts into 1D at a 17.9% clip and into TD at a 3.6% clip. He has an 11.1% SK rate (abysmal) and a 1.8% INT rate (fine).
Rushing, he converts rush attempts into 1D at a 23.8% clip and into TD at a 9.5% clip. He also has one fumble lost.
To compare this to Hurts last year:
Pass 1D%: 31.1% (2022) vs. 17.9% (2023)
Pass TD%: 4.8% (2022) vs. 3.6% (2023)
SK: 7.6% (2022) vs. 11.1 (2023)
INT: 1.3% (2022) vs. 1.8% (2023)
Rush 1D%: 32.7% (2022) vs. 23.8% (2023)
Rush TD%: 7.9% (2022) vs. 9.5% (2023)
Fumbles: 2 lost in 15 games (2022) vs. 1 lost in 2 games (2023)
So…yeah. Hurts is down across the board (except for Rush TD%). Quite frankly, other than the INT% and Rush TD%, these numbers are really bad. I think this also explains why Eagles fans are kinda skittish right now even though they’re 2-0. Hurts is playing really poorly, and while the team overall is good enough to steal wins even with him playing like this, it’s not really a recipe for season-long or playoff success.
What’s EPA
Banned from /r/toprightjalen
He’s been doing a lot of very short passes. There have been a few deep balls that have been caught, but I think the bundle of dump-offs to RBs drives up the completion pct. I’d like to see more passes over the middle
Jalen just has to stop bailing out of clean pockets. He does it occasionally when he doesn’t do it, he’s an incredible QB.
Its been two weeks. C’mon, are you realy listening to a chart that has Mahomes in strictly mid tier?
There is no freaking way I believe that Jalen Hurts’ play has cost us points versus an expected average. Sometimes analytics are just bs.
I mean all those passes in the flat for -1 to +1 yards will do that.
We’re really looking at these types of stats 2 games into the season on a short week and with a new OC? I realize people love their data, but none of this means anything until we get at least a few more games into the season. Even if we didn’t have a new OC and it wasn’t a short week, 2 games is still way too small of a sample size to mean anything.