Update – Simulated outcomes for the final 7 games, plus a breakdown specifically for the Astros series.
September 25, 2023
Update – Simulated outcomes for the final 7 games, plus a breakdown specifically for the Astros series.
11 comments
Well that series sucked.
I’ve been getting requests to post an update, and the results are more optimistic than I had imagined.
Thanks to the Astros getting swept, the Mariners still have a decent chance to make up for their poor showing against the Rangers. The key takeaway here is that winning at least 2 games against Houston gives us a strong chance of getting into the playoffs.
I’m using the same methodology here – 10,000 simulations of every remaining game involving Seattle, Houston, Texas, and Toronto based on ESPN single-game probabilities. I might add that the probabilities are suspect in some cases (e.g. [Houston is 63.8% favorites](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401473407) @ AZ against Zac Gallen on 9/29???), so take this all with a grain of salt.
Edit – also the X-Axis title for the second plot should read “Mariners Series Outcome vs Houston”
There is a lot more orange on this chart than the last one you posted. I’m still surprised at how reasonable our odds are even after the sweep.
Sweep Houston and take 2 of 4 against Texas at home. Speaking it into existence.
Thx I love it and I hate it
So let’s just win 7 in a row
Going in to the final 10, I was counting on 5 or hopefully 6 wins. But even after being swept, I like the odds at 4-6. Glad the Astros cooperated with our WC3 chances.
I think the 6-1 scenario odds must be heavily weighted towards losing a game to Texas. If we go 6-1 with sweeping Texas, that’s gotta be division.
Can you sum all the odds and tell us: – odds of winning division – odds of wild card
My expectations are tempered. Before the Rangers series I felt like we could win the division. I’m content with clinching a WC spot again. It would be nice to do that in back to back seasons.
Ol’ pal Paul Sewald shutting down the Astros in the final weekend to help secure the M’s playoff appearance would be the ultimate sleeper agent move.
As a Twins fan who lived in Seattle for 5 years and semi adopted them as my 2nd team and think a Twins/M’s wild card series would be fun, and as a decent human being who hates the Astros, really rooting for you guys to knock them out. How beautiful would a playoffs without Houston and NYY be.
11 comments
Well that series sucked.
I’ve been getting requests to post an update, and the results are more optimistic than I had imagined.
Thanks to the Astros getting swept, the Mariners still have a decent chance to make up for their poor showing against the Rangers. The key takeaway here is that winning at least 2 games against Houston gives us a strong chance of getting into the playoffs.
I’m using the same methodology here – 10,000 simulations of every remaining game involving Seattle, Houston, Texas, and Toronto based on ESPN single-game probabilities. I might add that the probabilities are suspect in some cases (e.g. [Houston is 63.8% favorites](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401473407) @ AZ against Zac Gallen on 9/29???), so take this all with a grain of salt.
Edit – also the X-Axis title for the second plot should read “Mariners Series Outcome vs Houston”
There is a lot more orange on this chart than the last one you posted. I’m still surprised at how reasonable our odds are even after the sweep.
Sweep Houston and take 2 of 4 against Texas at home. Speaking it into existence.
Thx I love it and I hate it
So let’s just win 7 in a row
Going in to the final 10, I was counting on 5 or hopefully 6 wins. But even after being swept, I like the odds at 4-6. Glad the Astros cooperated with our WC3 chances.
I think the 6-1 scenario odds must be heavily weighted towards losing a game to Texas. If we go 6-1 with sweeping Texas, that’s gotta be division.
Can you sum all the odds and tell us:
– odds of winning division
– odds of wild card
My expectations are tempered. Before the Rangers series I felt like we could win the division. I’m content with clinching a WC spot again. It would be nice to do that in back to back seasons.
Ol’ pal Paul Sewald shutting down the Astros in the final weekend to help secure the M’s playoff appearance would be the ultimate sleeper agent move.
As a Twins fan who lived in Seattle for 5 years and semi adopted them as my 2nd team and think a Twins/M’s wild card series would be fun, and as a decent human being who hates the Astros, really rooting for you guys to knock them out. How beautiful would a playoffs without Houston and NYY be.