https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=36&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=1&team=8&sortcol=12&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
Overall 121 stuff+ 101 pitching+
Fastball 121 || Slider 111 || Curve 92 || Change 125
Some thoughts:
The overall stuff number puts him 4th on the team, behind Jax, Duran, & Stewart. It needs more pitches to get a meaningful enough sample to trust. That said it stabilizes relatively quickly and it is a great tool for finding good relievers. Roughly 250 pitches and you have a good idea of the pitcher’s true talent for relievers.
the stuff model usually hates changeups I expect that to drop the most out of the current numbers. SWR is the only Twin with a stuff+ over 100 on a change up (4.2 innings)
If these trends continue he’s likely to slot in just behind Stewart in the pen, significantly clearing the other middle relievers, but likely not challenging Duran/Jax/Stew/Thielbar as a leverage reliever.
It’s fantastic to see, but expect these numbers to drop a bit (and that’s ok!)There’s a pretty well studied “debut” boost on velocity, so that 99 might be the only one we see.
4 comments
What does stuff+ tell us exactly? Is it just saying how good his pitches are compared to the league similar to OPS+ or ERA+?
If that’s what we’re focusing on, why not just use FIP or ERA+? Overall pitching success vs. particular pitches?
Am I crazy for thinking Varland will be #2 in the bullpen hierarchy after Duran?
Except it’s my understanding Paddack’s future beyond this season is likely to remain as a starter, so comparing him to other relievers only holds value for this limited stretch this last week and any appearances he makes in the playoffs.
121 stuff+ goodness gracious