**Quick description of the chart for those looking for that**
This person has taken all the trades that the currently tenured general manager has made and individually calculated the net bWAR for each trade. He then took the average of that list of numbers and charted that number as a bar for each team. The total number of trades made is in parenthesis above the column on the chart.
Preller has executed more trades than all other GM’s except Dipoto (SEA) and Cashman (NYY), and only trails the Braves in average value gained per trade.
As someone who probably favors Preller more than the average fan, this is not really the best way to evaluate the front office. Every time you trade prospects, it’ll look like a steal if you only evaluate in the short term. So things like to Soto trade heavily skew the results in a positive direction when you really can’t fully evaluate that trade yet. Edit* also war per trade is a very strange metric to look at to evaluate a front office.
Probably a number of ways to make Preller look bad at trading and good at trading.
One good way would be simply: Look at how many trades he has made and look at what the team has accomplished while he has been GM.
There is a lot wrong with this kind of analysis. 1. Many of the players we have traded away haven’t even made it to MLB yet, so they are worth literally nothing in this analysis. Just think of the Soto trade for example. 2. This can be heavily skewed by 1 super star like Tatis.
This is a mega reach and seems like a statistically flawed analysis.
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Pretty flawed to really show value when the entire thing is thrown off by the Tatis trade.
Brother, you’re never going to get the Anti-Preller folks to admit anything that paints AJ in a positive light. You can post all the stats you want–they’ll try to invalidate them. You point to the good trades–they’ll ignore you and pivot to ‘how’d they do this year? They refuse to acknowledge context in any conversation. They’re the very definition of confirmation bias.
Here’s what you’ll get–9 Years and NO World Series. Toxic workplace. 7 Managers. Gutted the farm system. Meddler/Micromanager with SPIES in the clubhouse. Liar.–even if the Padres win the Series next year with a team he built and a manager he hired, they find a way to diminish the accomplishment –Wow, only ONE WS championship in 10 years! Fire AJ!
Thanks’ for the post and the chart at least SOME people in here are trying to have reasonable conversations regarding the team.
This is meaningful to me given the length of his tenure. He’s obviously made more good trades than bad.
For the record, nothing is dumber than making these sorts of comparisons after a player gets traded. After all, a player is explicitly not in the same situation he left, so it’s never an apples to apples comparison about how he did with his previous team and his current team.
Also, Preller needs to be good at the top of the list mainly because he converts so many prospects into free agents. It stands to reason that trading an assortment of machine parts for a finished machine would lead to better performance.
Then again, it is foolish to try to connect everything about an organization to one man. At least, it is for a baseball team. A football or soccer team has much more responsibility vested within one guy.
8 comments
Here’s the direct link – https://twitter.com/RobertFrey40/status/1721548260286861800
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**Quick description of the chart for those looking for that**
This person has taken all the trades that the currently tenured general manager has made and individually calculated the net bWAR for each trade. He then took the average of that list of numbers and charted that number as a bar for each team. The total number of trades made is in parenthesis above the column on the chart.
Preller has executed more trades than all other GM’s except Dipoto (SEA) and Cashman (NYY), and only trails the Braves in average value gained per trade.
As someone who probably favors Preller more than the average fan, this is not really the best way to evaluate the front office. Every time you trade prospects, it’ll look like a steal if you only evaluate in the short term. So things like to Soto trade heavily skew the results in a positive direction when you really can’t fully evaluate that trade yet. Edit* also war per trade is a very strange metric to look at to evaluate a front office.
Probably a number of ways to make Preller look bad at trading and good at trading.
One good way would be simply: Look at how many trades he has made and look at what the team has accomplished while he has been GM.
There is a lot wrong with this kind of analysis.
1. Many of the players we have traded away haven’t even made it to MLB yet, so they are worth literally nothing in this analysis. Just think of the Soto trade for example.
2. This can be heavily skewed by 1 super star like Tatis.
This is a mega reach and seems like a statistically flawed analysis.
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Pretty flawed to really show value when the entire thing is thrown off by the Tatis trade.
Brother, you’re never going to get the Anti-Preller folks to admit anything that paints AJ in a positive light. You can post all the stats you want–they’ll try to invalidate them. You point to the good trades–they’ll ignore you and pivot to ‘how’d they do this year? They refuse to acknowledge context in any conversation. They’re the very definition of confirmation bias.
Here’s what you’ll get–9 Years and NO World Series. Toxic workplace. 7 Managers. Gutted the farm system. Meddler/Micromanager with SPIES in the clubhouse. Liar.–even if the Padres win the Series next year with a team he built and a manager he hired, they find a way to diminish the accomplishment –Wow, only ONE WS championship in 10 years! Fire AJ!
Thanks’ for the post and the chart at least SOME people in here are trying to have reasonable conversations regarding the team.
This is meaningful to me given the length of his tenure. He’s obviously made more good trades than bad.
For the record, nothing is dumber than making these sorts of comparisons after a player gets traded. After all, a player is explicitly not in the same situation he left, so it’s never an apples to apples comparison about how he did with his previous team and his current team.
Also, Preller needs to be good at the top of the list mainly because he converts so many prospects into free agents. It stands to reason that trading an assortment of machine parts for a finished machine would lead to better performance.
Then again, it is foolish to try to connect everything about an organization to one man. At least, it is for a baseball team. A football or soccer team has much more responsibility vested within one guy.