There have been good takes on Bill Belichick’s GM acumen pertaining to Drafting, and how he is slightly above the NFL average for success vs busts. However, I have a few critiques of that.

23 comments

1. If nothing else, the subreddit this season provides a wealth of data concerning the potential pass rate for the SAT writing portion amongst New England teenagers.

2. Running back? Besides Pierre strong and Kevin Harris I’ve always believed Belichick got good use out of every RB pick. Vereen, White, Ridley, Stevenson , Michel all gave us at least 2000 yards of production over their career with with us. They may not have been elite but they were productive

3. My only issue with Bill’s drafting is his unexplainable desire to go off the board with most of the first rounders we’ve had in the past.

   I think we’ve done well above average in the later rounds, though, and that’s no accident. BB is all about _value_ and that’s no secret.

4. I don’t have a problem with his drafting of RBs because it seems like it’s the only position he’s capable of finding quality talent at.

5. >always left the Team with glaring and detrimental needs left to be filled

   Is this a serious take? Putting the history of success aside, do you think most teams have talent up and down the roster and no holes?

6. I did not fully read your study; however, I did read your tldr and have a question.

   Most statistical studies of the draft fail before they begin because it is so difficult to quantify player performance. Every position in football conducts tasks that are non-quantifiable, and require subjective grading. Even in the year 2023, very limited infrastructure exists for grading players. For example, this sub has been in a civil war over whether Devon Godchaux is a good player for three years. Any attempt at subjective grading is met with hostility if it doesn’t confirm fan’s priors, and will never really shake the criticism that it is impossible to grade the player without knowing the play call.

   What is your stance on the above, and how did you navigate this issue in conducting your study?

7. Thanks for linking to this article. People always jump on Bill and point to busts, but forget that every team has busts. You need to compare to others, and this does that while controlling for draft position.

   I hear your critique, but the data does show that Bill is getting 6% greater value out of those draft positions than average. That means that the idea that he’s “busting” at a higher rate is just not true.

   I don’t think your critique is that valid in light of this data.

   I do think there’s still room to critique what positions he’s drafting . He might be getting 6% better value, but he could be doing that by drafting safer positions (positions less likely to bust) rather than drafting in positions of actual need. Though, I would be interested in seeing a similar analysis that differentiates for position. I imagine that WR might be the hardest to draft for.

8. We draft a lot of guys that end up being solid on day 3. It’s the guys on day 1 and most of day 2 that are the problem. Having quality depth players is great, but you need to hit on top end talent every once in a while as well. When you’re constantly wasting valuable picks on guys like Wynn, Harry, Strange, Dawson, Richards, Easley, Malcolm Brown, Thornton, Asiasi, Keene, Joejuan Williams, etc this is what you get. A roster with some decent pieces but not enough talent to be remotely competitive.

9. I can’t wait for him to be fired or retire so we don’t have these posts anymore.

10. I remember reading an article recently that said something like only 8% of draft picks are good or great and only 30% are average or above. The rest are mostly trash or replacements. People seem to think that every draft pick should be a home run with the truth is most are not.

11. [deleted]

12. Which teams are the best at consistently drafting great players?

    [Eagles?](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/draft.htm)

    [Steelers?](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/draft.htm)

    [Chiefs?](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/draft.htm)

    [Ravens?](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/draft.htm)

    You look through these other teams draft history and there are piles of crappy players. Some years are complete whiffs. These are 4 of the premier franchises known for good drafting.

13. I’m confused by that chart, where is Brady?

14. This confirms the obvious – his drafting has been terrible. I’ve said since 2016/2017 – this suggests since 2013.

15. Ras-I Dowling was a potential first round pick that slipped into the 2nd round. Jordan Richards on the other hand, he should get hammered on

16. Stinkers at rb as we have had a consistently good RB group that has been largely drafted talent since 2011. There was maybe a year or two where it was lack luster, and then bringing blount in to be the stud he is.

17. A few comments:

    DL (particularly DE) and WR have incredibly high bust rates. Also, RB has the highest bust rate.

    Outside of the 1st round, safety’s have a higher bust rate.

    Your points are statistically the same across the NFL. The Patriots aren’t specially bad.

18. God, so much effort on such a low quality post. Our defensive line, OLB, and RBs have been solid for 20 years. There’s a point where you need to look past the data. I’m not sure if you took into consideration that having studs already in place means these draftees were going to be busts no matter what. Just consider the names of players we had at those positions and tell me what drafted players were going to take over for them…

19. One thing that I have not seen mentioned is that Bill didn’t have to waste draft capital on a starting quarterback for two decades, definitely a significant advantage over other teams that spent many picks over the years trying to fill that type of gap.

20. This is a flawed stat. I’m amazed no one has pointed out that the single most ludicrous DrAV outlier in NFL history was drafted by the Patriots in 2001. We took a 6th round, 4th string QB, and he wound up the GOAT. That one pick just absolutely breaks this scale, it should have at least been discussed in the article if it wasn’t going to be discounted.

21. Ras-I Dowling is 35 years old and hasn’t played in the NFL for 9 years and people *still* point to him as exhibit A that Belichick can’t draft.

    People evaluating talent in hindsight are honestly just annoying. People want to knock the Strange pick or whatever, I get it. At least that pick was panned on draft night. But Dowling was universally viewed as a good pick on draft night. Easley was another pick where people thought he was potentially the steal of the draft (he was projected as a top 15 pick prior to injuries). Harry was universally praised when drafted – you can find the reaction thread on this sub with a simple search when even fans of other teams were coming to sub to say how great of a pick it was.

    Players bust and clowns pretend like the results prove that it was a bad pick and completely ignore the information everyone had leading up to the draft which is really the only thing that matters in evaluating someone’s ability to draft.

22. Does DrAV consider the position in the draft in which a team picks?

    Because the Patriots for 20 years had the worst average draft position due to their winning record of ANY team in the NFL.

    The Patriots drafted at roughly the 29th pick over that 20 years because they were the winningest team in football over that time.

    That equates to a serious draft disadvantage and this point needs to be addressed in any kind of draft grade.

23. Most of the draft experts here on /r/patriots are looking at drafts a 2-3 years later and going “OMG WE COULD HAVE HAD (PLAYER) INSTEAD OF (DRAFTED PLAYER” in hindsight, as if a bunch of other teams also didn’t pass on that player, etc.