I’m bringing back this series again where I take a look at each of the Twins top 30 prospects, see how their season went, and what we hope to see moving forward. I’ll be using [MLB Pipeline’s](https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/) prospect rankings for this project. This year’s format has changed slightly to look at 2 players at once, with the intent of bringing some more eyeballs to guys that might otherwise not get many views. This likely won’t be a super deep dive in most cases, but more of a high level review and an opportunity to share where I’m at with each guy and open up some more targeted community discussion on them. Both proximity to the majors as well as prospect pedigree may impact this – those that may play a role on the Twins next year will naturally warrant more discussion than a back of the list guy with limited tape available where there will have to be a little more speculation. But I hope you enjoy and that this helps us all learn some new things and get to know our farm better!
You can catch up on prior episodes here:
* [Episode 1 – Walker Jenkins (#1) and Andrew Morris (#30)](https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotatwins/comments/17z7svo/2023_twins_top_prospect_recaps_episode_1_walker)
In episode two, we’ll look at the Twins #2 overall prospect, Brooks Lee, and #29 overall Noah Cardenas.
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# Brooks Lee
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# A refresher
Lee is a 22-year old switch hitting shortstop out of Cal Poly University. The Twins acquired him in the 2022 draft (round 1, pick 8 overall). Lee’s scouting grades:
Hit | Power | Run | Arm | Field | Overall
:– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :–
65 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 55
# The stats
Level | G | AB | H | 2B | HR | RBI | SB | K | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+
:– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :–
AA | 87 | 349 | 102 | 31 | 11 | 61 | 6 | 63 | 41 | .292 | .365 | .476 | 120
AAA | 38 | 152 | 36 | 8 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 28 | 15 | .237 | .304 | .428 | 78
Total | 125 | 501 | 138 | 39 | 16 | 84 | 7 | 91 | 56 | .275 | .347 | .461 |
# The recap
Lee had a lot of eyes on him entering his first full season of professional baseball, as any former top 10 pick would. He performed very well in his first taste of professional life last year, even with the Twins aggressively pushing him to AA by season’s end. Lee wasted no time getting right down to business, rattling off a 10 game hit streak to start the year in Wichita. He performed quite consistently in his 87 games with AA, and honestly it’s hard to find much to complain or be worried about. If we want to get picky, he had a pretty brutal 2 week slump in May where he went 5 for 50 – but even then, during that span he still walked 7 times to 8 strikeouts, and he finished the last week of May hitting .393 with 4 doubles and a homer, helping keep his total May slash line at a solid .261/.352/.424. Lee kept the ball rolling in June, too, never going more than 2 games in a row without a hit. Then in July, Lee went a bonkers, hitting .365/.433/.600 in 20 games with 5 doubles, 5 homers, and 10 strikeouts to 10 walks. After just 2 more games in August, the Twins called him up to AAA.
St. Paul proved to be a little bit tougher of a go for Lee. While he would only have 4 hitless games in August, he also only had 4 multi-hit games, hitting .241 over the 21 game span with 18 strikeouts to 8 walks. He did still hit 5 doubles along with a triple and a homer, but we didn’t get the hot start at a new level that we’ve gotten so accustomed to seeing from Lee. September on the surface may look like only a slight improvement if anything, as Lee’s average for the month (.231) took a step back and OBP (.306) improved only 8 points, but I’m encouraged to see even power numbers (3 doubles, 2 triples, and 4 homers), and even more encouraged to see Lee’s K:BB (10 strikeouts to 7 walks) bounce right back. While nobody will claim Lee’s first cup of coffee at AAA went exactly as they’d hope, it also wasn’t a catastrophic failure by any stretch.
Overall it’s hard to argue that Lee’s 2023 was anything but a big success. After being drafted the year prior, Lee started out at AA right out of the gate, and mashed there pretty much all spring and into the summer until his promotion. Reaching AAA barely a year after being drafted is an incredible accomplishment. The Twins thought so highly of Lee’s season that he was named their 2023 minor league hitter of the year. I also want to celebrate a full healthy season from Lee, too. He hasn’t given us any reasons to be concerned about that, but it’s always a bummer when a top prospect comes down with something and it sets back his development curve. Where we sit now, there’s no reason not to still be very excited about Lee’s prospects, and it’s looking increasingly likely that we’ll see him up at Target Field sometime next year.
# Looking forward
With Lee, we’re past the point of having to wonder if he’s going to make it to the majors someday (and I don’t want to gloss over that being a big win), and instead we can feel comfortable putting more effort into thinking about how far he may be able to go in the majors. Lee has always been labeled as a high floor prospect (not with the implication there’s not real upside, too), and I do still feel that’s an accurate label. But I also think there’s still legit high upside here too. There’s a few things I want to check on in this section while we try to predict if Lee’s “only” going to be a solid everyday player, or if there’s much more than that in store.
The biggest thing that I’m interested to see continue to develop is Lee’s switch hitting splits. Lee’s top rated scouting grade has always been his hit tool, praised for fantastic contact skills from both sides of the plate. And last year, that was unquestioned with great lines on both sides (.274/.378/.441 batting righty, and .381/.458/.476 from the left side). But this year we saw a big divergence. He was still very good from the right side, hitting .287/.366/.494, but his LHH splits fell off a cliff, managing just .231/.266/.337. 51 of Lee’s extra base hits this year also came as a righty, compared to just 7 as a lefty. I love switch hitters as they provide a natural safeguard against falling into platoon territory, which not only severely limits an individual player’s upside, but I feel is also threatening the Twins currently lineup by too many guys being ineffective against certain handed pitchers. I wouldn’t take this to be a screaming major red flag for Lee yet, as he only got a 100 PA sample size from the left side this season, and given this hasn’t been raised as a concern in any of his historical scouting reports. Unfortunately Baseball Reference doesn’t let us drill into minor league splits to see how Lee fared as a LHH in AA vs AAA, or as the season went on. I’d love to do a deeper dive and get more data. But while I don’t think there’s reason to panic yet, I do see this as the biggest threat to Lee’s ceiling.
Next, it’s been interesting to track his power output. Lee has always been more of a doubles hitter than homer guy, and that’s held true this year as well, with 39 doubles to 16 homers in 125 games. Those rates are pretty equivalent to what we might have guessed looking at his collegiate stats and short stint last year. That’s certainly going to play in the majors even if he holds at a 40/20 type guy. It just changes the type of player to expect a little bit. Think of a healthy Jorge Polanco type, usually good for 30+ doubles, but probably topping out at the 20ish home run range, rather than a higher power peak Brian Dozier type that is in the 30/30 or 40/30 range. Being a 20 HR type guy rather than a 30 HR type guy does seem like it lowers a potential ceiling by a non-insignificant amount. But a 40/20 guy is still an awesome everyday bat in the lineup, let’s not be too harsh. Turning 23 in February, it’s not as if Lee has no shot of adding power anymore, so I’m curious if he does ever push the homer numbers a little higher. But that would likely come at the expense of some average/OBP skill, and honestly I’d rather keep Lee where he’s at and forfeit a potential extra 10 homers. Either way, this is one area that feels like it may have a little variability left.
Finally, the last major question we all know has surrounded Lee for some time now is if he’ll be able to stick at shortstop in the majors. Of course, with Carlos Correa (who, by the way, is [on the record](https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1631017450576793602) as being very high on Lee) now under contract for the next decade, this is a far lesser concern than it was a year ago, and perhaps now the right question is how well can Lee handle third base instead of shortstop. But being able to handle the hardest infield position if nothing else provides more value and flexibility, so I think it’s still worth touching on here even if we won’t be able to go very far with it due to lack of access (and existence) of quality defensive data in the minor leagues. Now with all that said, so far it seems the Twins are still confident that Lee can handle short. Last year he played exclusively at SS, and this year he had 111 games at short compared to 7 at third and 6 as DH. It does jump out that Lee had a whopping 19 errors at short in those 111 games. That would have been among the MLB’s most errors of any qualified fielder at any position and in far fewer changes. We know better by now than to treat errors as gospel – they don’t give any visibility into how difficult the play may have been, who’s fault the error truly was, and it’s all up to the official scorer how to rule a play so there’s a human factor there too. And heck, Anthony Volpe just won a Gold Glove this year with 17 errors. Without anything more concrete to go off of here, we’ll have to fall back on scouting reports again and take solace that he’s given credit for great hands and a solid arm, with range being his limiting factor. I’ve even seen reports that think he could be a Gold Glover if he does switch to third. At any rate, at the end of the day, Correa’s presence on the Twins makes sticking at short far less important for Lee, and it seems likely that 3B will be his spot in the majors. But as with all prospects, defense will remain something to watch.
# Highlights/film room
* [Singles in first MLB spring training at-bat](https://twitter.com/FLProspectPod/status/1629550795937968128)
* [First AA home run](https://twitter.com/sullyengels/status/1646325506181156864)
* [Moonshot caps off 4-6 day for Wind Surge](https://twitter.com/TwinsPlayerDev/status/1684303994238238721)
* [First AAA hit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofj33SEbfuc&ab_channel=MinorLeagueBaseball)
* [445 foot blast for first AAA home run](https://twitter.com/MiLB/status/1690243345170468864)
* [4-hit night at the plate in St Paul](https://twitter.com/MiLB/status/1698562809796157809)
* [September grand slam for the Saints](https://twitter.com/MiLB/status/1699246723150020998)
* [No doubter home run](https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1704673618440192280)
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# Noah Cardenas
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# A refresher
Cardenas is a 24-year old catcher out of UCLA. The Twins acquired him in the 2021 draft (round 8, pick 249 overall). Cardenas’ scouting grades:
Hit | Power | Run | Arm | Field | Overall
:– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :–
45 | 40 | 40 | 60 | 60 | 40
# The stats
Level | G | AB | H | 2B | HR | RBI | SB | K | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+
:– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :– | :–
A+ | 90 | 309 | 84 | 23 | 3 | 38 | 9 | 77 | 55 | .272 | .397 | .382 | 127
Total | 90 | 309 | 84 | 23 | 3 | 38 | 9 | 77 | 55 | .272 | .397 | .382 | 127
# The recap
After spending the entirety of 2022, his first full year of minor league ball, at Fort Myers, Cardenas this year would spend the full season in Cedar Rapids. Cardenas was scouted as a defense first catcher with below average power but good on base skills, and that pretty much describes his year with the Kernels. He posted a great OBP of .397 despite hitting only .272 and just 3 homers – it’s always a fun happenstance when a player has a higher OBP than SLG. Cardenas struck out 77 times for a solid 20.4% rate, but he really makes headlines with his walk rate, which with 55 walks this year was an elite 14.6%. And that’s actually down a ways from his 2022 mark of 18.2% with 73 walks in 400 plate appearances! For a little context, Juan Soto led the league with an 18.6% walk rate this year, and only 3 qualified hitters had walk rates over 15%. On the defensive side, he threw out 31% of baserunners attempting to steal, right in line with his 29% mark from 2022, and a firm affirmation of his high arm grade. This is another elite mark – in the majors this year, only one catcher (min 300 innings) matched Cardenas’ 31% caught stealing mark, and only 5 catchers had a caught stealing rate over 25%.
I wish I had more to say about Cardenas here, but I’m not able to speak to more details on the defensive side of the game, and Cardenas’ offense is unremarkable after you cover his great OBP. He doesn’t have a tendency of putting together long hitting streaks, but he doesn’t go more than a few games without a hit either. He rarely records more than 2 hits in a game, but also has fairly little over the fence power. 23 doubles in 90 games is a nice mark, but even those seem to be almost boringly scattered throughout the season instead of coming in bunches – not saying that’s a bad thing. At the end of the day, knowing the type of player Cardenas is, in my opinion I’d say he had a successful season. He posted a similar offensive line while moving up a level, and by all accounts his defense followed as well.
# Looking forward
Cardenas feels like a definite floor over ceiling guy to me, in a non-disparaging way. Without more going on at the plate, it’s hard to get too excited about Cardenas, but even an empty .260 average would play in the majors with how desolate catcher offense can be. It’s a great sign that Cardenas posted another year with a strong K/BB, as that has proven to be fairly predictive. If Cardenas can continue to put up .390+ OBP marks, even if it comes with no power and maybe 20 doubles, you’ll take that from a catcher slot. Especially when it’s paired with strong defensive play. It sounds like Cardenas has it figured out off the field as well – he was named one of the Twins [Harmon Killebrew award winners](https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-twins-announce-2022-harmon-killebrew-award-winners) in 2022 for outstanding community service, and is known for signing up for a bunch of volunteer opportunities as they come up.
In terms of timelines and looking at potential, 2024 is going to be a big year for Cardenas. He turned 24 this September, and he’s been just a little on the older side for both his stays at A and A+, at nearly 1 year older than the average player. With a solid full season at A+ under his belt, it’ll be time to jump up to AA and see how he handles things. We’ll want to hear continued praise of his defensive game, as that’s his clearest path to the majors. And honestly, if he keeps that up, he has a future as an MLB catcher even if only a backup.
If we hope/plan for a continued high floor defensively, then it comes down to what offensive progression we’ll be able to wring out of Cardenas. A+ to AA is a big jump, and offensively we’ll again want to be able to fall back on a strong K/BB. If that holds, that goes a long ways to propping up his floor, whereas if that takes a step back, that’d be pretty damaging to his chances of reaching the majors. Looking at power potential is a low hanging fruit but obvious thing to watch, too. With only 3 homers in nearly 400 plate appearances this year, we’re not expecting even 20 home run power in the future from Cardenas. But he did hit 9 homers in 400 PAs in 2022, so it’s not necessarily that he’s devoid of all power whatsoever. 2024 should be telling if we can have hope for Cardenas to be even a 15 homer bat in the future or not.
As things stand now, by all accounts Cardenas has a path to the majors based solely on his defense alone. Whether he projects as a low end backup or something closer to a time share remains to be seen and is likely dependent on how his offense develops. Making the presumptive jump to AA next year will give us a really good reality check on where Cardenas’ progression stands, so even partway through next year we should be able to revisit this with a higher level of confidence. At this point in time, should all continue to go well, I’d still expect Cardenas to be in the minors until at least 2026. While I won’t advocate for getting super excited about Cardenas at this point, I definitely think he’s worth keeping in the back of our minds as at least a possible backup catcher option in a few years.
# Highlights/film room
There really isn’t much out there on Cardenas during his time in the minors, so this section is going to be pretty light. Most all of what I’m seeing stems back to his UCLA days and is geared towards his MLB draft scouting, so that will have to do for now:
* [Prospect Pipeline draft profile](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pPNIFxc0S8&ab_channel=TheProspectPipeline)
* [Home run at UCLA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9ixtFpo4tA&ab_channel=TheProspectPipeline)
* [Cardenas game highlights from 2019 UCLA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBhV30VKZRY&ab_channel=Lowandoutside)
1 comment
With the reduced payroll, does Lee have a chance at making the opening day roster? Or should we expect him up sometime mid season?