3B on opening day or nah? Bonus question: extend him like Jackson now or wait out?
December 15, 2023
3B on opening day or nah? Bonus question: extend him like Jackson now or wait out?
15 comments
Extend everyone
Can’t say i want him to be the day one starter. I would have been all for it if they had traded Burnes but it feels like they want to try and win this year so go with whoever the best is right now
“Do it now!” Matt Arnold “Schwarzenegger”
I have no idea who is out there, but I would love to bring in a big bat veteran that black could fill in for when injured or step in for when we trade the vet for some key pieces at the deadline.
Start him, extend him (fewer years then Churio) but we should be able to be competitive and still build for the future if we play him and Churio
With what they have, I’d start Black on opening day if he looks good in spring training. Monesterio is probably the only competition at this point, and Black has a higher upside. I would prefer an outside option, Paredes from Tampa Bay would be my dream at 3B. Either way, alot to figure out at 3B, 1B, and backup Catcher before opening day.
Seeing as we can defer it all to the year 3021, yeah why not.
Feel like the deal Chourio got is very reflective of him being a generational talent. Certainly in Milwaukee. Like Black. He just needs to show something in the show before I’m opening the checkbook like they did for Chourio.
$2 billion over 10 years deferred to year 5,648
Black and Mitchell will have to wait for extensions
How is his defense?
Oooh he swings Dovetail, those are fantastic. Big fan of them.
Should’ve been called up last year already
Should be on the opening day roster IMO, whether at 1B or 3B (or, far less likely, 2B). Or all three + DH.
As for extension, the answer is always going to be “for how much?” Up to a point it’s worth it, beyond that it isn’t.
But I also think the two cases are somewhat different. You lock Chourio up like this because the combination of power, speed, defense, age etc. is a superstar profile if it works out. The kind of player who would be impossible to extend later on, and that would mean might need to get traded before even 6 years. You take the risk of an extension because the upside *if* he’s a star is so huge.
Black is a bit different; he’s probably even a safer bet with the bat, and can obviously be a really good player too. There just isn’t the same kind of potential upside, and so the reward isn’t as great. And so the lesser reward means you can’t take as big a risk. Like think of it looking at say, their 10th, 50th, 90th and 99th percentile type outcomes. 99th percentile for someone like Chourio is Mike Trout. 90th is like Ronald Acuña. 50th percentile is still a well above average CF, the kind of player who will pick up a bunch of All-star nominations etc. Like.. average the career outcomes and skillsets of Michael Brantley and Kevin Kiermaier. 10th percentile is likely still someone who will stick around the fringes of ML rosters for years. I dunno… a more long-lived version of Keon Broxton?
For Tyler Black, you’re looking at Joey Votto for best possible outcome. Say Pete Alonso for 90th percentile. 50th percentile… better than Eric Hosmer but worse than Carlos Santana? 10th percentile is AAAA type with the occasional cup of coffee.
Don’t pay too much mind to the actual names, or if the comparisons are some percentiles high or low or w/e. I just took some of the current players that first came to mind. The point is to illustrate that with Chourio you get both more of a reward at the top end, *and* that you have a good chance of the deal being worth it even if he falls below even realistic, tempered, expectations. Whereas for Black, he needs to reach a much higher percentile outcome for an expensive early extension to be worth it, even if the best case scenarios are still really good they’re not potential GOAT outcomes. And the limited defensive/positional ability puts higher demand on his bat.
They should be playing him, nobody left in free agency that will outplay him and they need the type of bat that he provides.
15 comments
Extend everyone
Can’t say i want him to be the day one starter. I would have been all for it if they had traded Burnes but it feels like they want to try and win this year so go with whoever the best is right now
“Do it now!” Matt Arnold “Schwarzenegger”
I have no idea who is out there, but I would love to bring in a big bat veteran that black could fill in for when injured or step in for when we trade the vet for some key pieces at the deadline.
Start him, extend him (fewer years then Churio) but we should be able to be competitive and still build for the future if we play him and Churio
With what they have, I’d start Black on opening day if he looks good in spring training. Monesterio is probably the only competition at this point, and Black has a higher upside. I would prefer an outside option, Paredes from Tampa Bay would be my dream at 3B. Either way, alot to figure out at 3B, 1B, and backup Catcher before opening day.
Seeing as we can defer it all to the year 3021, yeah why not.
Feel like the deal Chourio got is very reflective of him being a generational talent. Certainly in Milwaukee. Like Black. He just needs to show something in the show before I’m opening the checkbook like they did for Chourio.
$2 billion over 10 years deferred to year 5,648
Black and Mitchell will have to wait for extensions
How is his defense?
Oooh he swings Dovetail, those are fantastic. Big fan of them.
Should’ve been called up last year already
Should be on the opening day roster IMO, whether at 1B or 3B (or, far less likely, 2B). Or all three + DH.
As for extension, the answer is always going to be “for how much?” Up to a point it’s worth it, beyond that it isn’t.
But I also think the two cases are somewhat different. You lock Chourio up like this because the combination of power, speed, defense, age etc. is a superstar profile if it works out. The kind of player who would be impossible to extend later on, and that would mean might need to get traded before even 6 years. You take the risk of an extension because the upside *if* he’s a star is so huge.
Black is a bit different; he’s probably even a safer bet with the bat, and can obviously be a really good player too. There just isn’t the same kind of potential upside, and so the reward isn’t as great. And so the lesser reward means you can’t take as big a risk. Like think of it looking at say, their 10th, 50th, 90th and 99th percentile type outcomes. 99th percentile for someone like Chourio is Mike Trout. 90th is like Ronald Acuña. 50th percentile is still a well above average CF, the kind of player who will pick up a bunch of All-star nominations etc. Like.. average the career outcomes and skillsets of Michael Brantley and Kevin Kiermaier. 10th percentile is likely still someone who will stick around the fringes of ML rosters for years. I dunno… a more long-lived version of Keon Broxton?
For Tyler Black, you’re looking at Joey Votto for best possible outcome. Say Pete Alonso for 90th percentile. 50th percentile… better than Eric Hosmer but worse than Carlos Santana? 10th percentile is AAAA type with the occasional cup of coffee.
Don’t pay too much mind to the actual names, or if the comparisons are some percentiles high or low or w/e. I just took some of the current players that first came to mind. The point is to illustrate that with Chourio you get both more of a reward at the top end, *and* that you have a good chance of the deal being worth it even if he falls below even realistic, tempered, expectations. Whereas for Black, he needs to reach a much higher percentile outcome for an expensive early extension to be worth it, even if the best case scenarios are still really good they’re not potential GOAT outcomes. And the limited defensive/positional ability puts higher demand on his bat.
They should be playing him, nobody left in free agency that will outplay him and they need the type of bat that he provides.