Average win probability forfeit per game by being too conservative on 4th down.

7 comments

1. With this trash offense? Yeah punt just about every 4th down. Hell, start punting on 3rd down so we get on defense faster. Watching the defense is the only time Im not ripping my hair out every single play.

2. Bill is giving a masterclass in strategic tanking.

3. I have a really unlikely theory that Bill is trying to make a case to Kraft to stay. Make the defense look good, make the offense look incompetent, then convince Kraft that all he needs to do is fix the offense.

4. This data exists with no line of sight to how bad this team is in short yardage situations offensively.

5. I’ll never understand this narrative. Trusting the defence to get a stop is less cowardly or whatever they like to call it than it is to go for it. I see going for it all the time as “we aren’t as good so we need to steal a possession”

6. Lol it’s almost as if the 49ers have a top tier offense able to convert 4th down at a high percentage and we have *checks notes* Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe

7. How much higher is the % chance of our offense scoring per possession than our defense getting a score or turnover per possession? If you consistently pin the other team deep and make them go 80-90 yards per drive, that gives your defense more chances to make a play and give your offense better field position with a higher % chance to score. When your offense is this abysmal, you have to rely on defense and special teams to get the offense in a favorable position to score and prevent the other team from scoring. If the other team consistently has a short field, it takes away a lot of opportunity for the defense to make a play.