[Sportsnet.ca]Bellinger looks like a good fit with Blue Jays. But is he really?
December 23, 2023
[Sportsnet.ca]Bellinger looks like a good fit with Blue Jays. But is he really?
18 comments
So the Sportsnet guys are out in full force with the damage control.
Isn’t looking good guys
Yes with an if, no with a but, amirite?
It’s highly possibly he is fully healed from his shoulder injuries, which cause the issues in 2021/22
Lol SN gearing us up for the Season of Disappointment with these articles like “yes, McDonald’s exists, but isn’t Leftover Tuna Casserole At Home soooo much better?”
Stupid headline
Yes, the answer is yes
Haha how depressing is Toronto sports right now, seemingly all three franchises stuck in mediorcrity with front offices that seem to be in varying positions of stuck address issues.
Another recycled article that only looks at expected stats and projections and doesn’t bother to do a modicum of research
<Insert Name> and Blue Jays <insert positive sounding probability>, but <insert negative probability> – Sportsnet
Yea
No he’s very inconsistent with his hitting, we should not sign him
I don’t know why this is giving me the Lyle “Overpaid” vibes.
I typically enjoy Ashbourne articles but this one had some errors and misrepresentations I didn’t care for. For one the spread between WOBA and XWOBA was 42 points vs the 52 that was reported, while it was disingenuous to lump his 2020 season in with the poor results of 2021 and 2022. His 2020 season was actually very good as it would have amounted to over 4 wins if averaged out to a full season. On top of that his expected stats were far better than his results, which suggests he may have posted far better stats over the course of an entire season.
I also didn’t care for how the article essentially ignored the fact that Bellinger intentionally reduced how hard he swung the bat in exchange for more contact, and this also seems to have led to a much higher sweet spot percentage as well. The home runs he hit were legitimate in a similar fashion to his best years in terms of no doubter rate so it’s not like he was getting by on wall scrapers.
There is a subset of players in MLB who seems to have a repeatable ability to outproduce their expected stats on a semi regular basis. This includes Altuve (he’s done this 6 out of 9 times in the Statcast era), Boegarts, Arenado and others. These high contact+low strikeout rates+middling exit velocity players who have the ability to regularly park balls in the seats seem to produce a lot of seasons where the WOBA results outpace the xWOBA numbers by 30-40 points or even more. Bellinger has only done this once so far, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility he could produce more such seasons in the future.
I mean yeah I’d think he could be a pretty good addition, plus maybe Atkins can sweet talk him into backloading his contract with guarantees or giving him the 250+ but structure it in a way that almost 100 of that is in performance bonuses, so that if we’re paying for a 250+ guy, he performs like one to get the 250+ and if he doesn’t, it’s not a collossal Albatross.
No
Yes.
High strikeout corner OF fits right with the Blue Jays
Blue jays may sign bellinger, but also may not, according to very very credible sources
18 comments
So the Sportsnet guys are out in full force with the damage control.
Isn’t looking good guys
Yes with an if, no with a but, amirite?
It’s highly possibly he is fully healed from his shoulder injuries, which cause the issues in 2021/22
Lol SN gearing us up for the Season of Disappointment with these articles like “yes, McDonald’s exists, but isn’t Leftover Tuna Casserole At Home soooo much better?”
Stupid headline
Yes, the answer is yes
Haha how depressing is Toronto sports right now, seemingly all three franchises stuck in mediorcrity with front offices that seem to be in varying positions of stuck address issues.
Another recycled article that only looks at expected stats and projections and doesn’t bother to do a modicum of research
<Insert Name> and Blue Jays <insert positive sounding probability>, but <insert negative probability> – Sportsnet
Yea
No he’s very inconsistent with his hitting, we should not sign him
I don’t know why this is giving me the Lyle “Overpaid” vibes.
I typically enjoy Ashbourne articles but this one had some errors and misrepresentations I didn’t care for. For one the spread between WOBA and XWOBA was 42 points vs the 52 that was reported, while it was disingenuous to lump his 2020 season in with the poor results of 2021 and 2022. His 2020 season was actually very good as it would have amounted to over 4 wins if averaged out to a full season. On top of that his expected stats were far better than his results, which suggests he may have posted far better stats over the course of an entire season.
I also didn’t care for how the article essentially ignored the fact that Bellinger intentionally reduced how hard he swung the bat in exchange for more contact, and this also seems to have led to a much higher sweet spot percentage as well. The home runs he hit were legitimate in a similar fashion to his best years in terms of no doubter rate so it’s not like he was getting by on wall scrapers.
There is a subset of players in MLB who seems to have a repeatable ability to outproduce their expected stats on a semi regular basis. This includes Altuve (he’s done this 6 out of 9 times in the Statcast era), Boegarts, Arenado and others. These high contact+low strikeout rates+middling exit velocity players who have the ability to regularly park balls in the seats seem to produce a lot of seasons where the WOBA results outpace the xWOBA numbers by 30-40 points or even more. Bellinger has only done this once so far, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility he could produce more such seasons in the future.
I mean yeah I’d think he could be a pretty good addition, plus maybe Atkins can sweet talk him into backloading his contract with guarantees or giving him the 250+ but structure it in a way that almost 100 of that is in performance bonuses, so that if we’re paying for a 250+ guy, he performs like one to get the 250+ and if he doesn’t, it’s not a collossal Albatross.
No
Yes.
High strikeout corner OF fits right with the Blue Jays
Blue jays may sign bellinger, but also may not, according to very very credible sources