New Blue Jays Pitcher Yariel Rodriguez: An Arsenal Breakdown
January 18, 2024
New Blue Jays Pitcher Yariel Rodriguez: An Arsenal Breakdown
3 comments
The article has some nice gifs of each pitch that are worth checking out, but the ads are a bit invasive, so here it is in easier to read form;
**Four Seam Fastball (94-96 mph)**
After averaging 96 mph while touching 100 mph in one and two inning relief spurts, Rodriguez averaged 95 mph in his two WBC starts with a few more 93s mixed in than usual. Again, he has had little experience being stretched out since his fastball ticked up to the upper 90s.
The characteristics of the fastball are unique, generating cut/ride that can make for a unique look for hitters. Almost all fastballs–even four seamers–have some sort of natural horizontal movement. The average MLB right-handed pitcher gets about 16 inches of induced vertical break with a little over seven inches of horizontal movement or arm side run.
Some of the fastballs he will throw feature 15-16 inches of induced vertical break and 0 inches of horizontal, helping it play up at the top of the zone, while others will be closer to 8 to 12 inches of induced vertical break with around -1 to -3 inches of horizontal break, meaning it is going to look more like a true cutter and result in more ground balls.
The variance makes it almost two separate pitches, making it somewhat difficult to concretely project his fastball based on the pitch characteristics, but the variance should work in his favor.
In terms of the average shape, Justin Steele’s fastball is similar, a pitch that performed very well at the big league level in 2023 at a lower velocity (92 mph) and higher release height. This bodes well for the effectiveness of Rodríguez’s fastball should he lose a tick as a starter with the ability to get whiff and weak contact on the ground.
**Sweeper (82-85 mph)**
Rodríguez’s best secondary pitch is his sweeper that he commands well. He went to the pitch around 25% of the time in 2022, landing it for a strike at a near 75% clip. He held opponents to a batting average barely over .100 with gaudy chase rates.
With minimal vertical break, the sweep really plays up, picking up ugly swings from righties with a good enough feel for it to back door lefties or bury it towards their back leg. Command of the pitch and the late movement it features is important for splits as sweepers generally don’t perform nearly as well against opposite-handed hitters.
He will mix in a slurvier breaking ball from time to time with a bit more vertical break, but it can tend to blend with his sweeper some. Since incorporating his new split, the curveball has mostly been phased out.
**Splitter (87-89 mph)**
A newer addition to the arsenal for Rodríguez is his upper 80s splitter that he began to incorporate in 2022. The pitch is still a work in progress, but helps hedge some concern about splits if the sweeper does not quite play as effectively against left-handed hitters as it did in NPB.
He mixed in a few splitters at the WBC that looked like an above average pitch if he can harness it with some consistency.
While his fastball and slider will likely be his bread and butter against right-handed hitters, the splitter should be effective against hitters from both sides of the plate if the feel for it continues to develop. How the pitch comes along could ultimately have a significant bearing on his chances of starting.
**Outlook**
Rodríguez hardly threw in 2023 as he sat out the season in an effort to get his release from the Chunichi Dragons granted. He eventually got his way, meaning the Blue Jays will not even need to pay a posting fee to sign him.
Pitch models like Stuff+ may not love the fastball based on the WBC data, but much like Steele’s cut/ride heater, I expect it to outperform what those models may project. As for the slider, there’s little need for nuance or debate, it’s flat out a plus pitch.
The development of his splitter and how his unique fastball plays against MLB hitters will be key if the goal is to turn lineups over, but Rodriguez has the stuff to be a high leverage arm that helps bolster the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen. He could be a Swiss-Army knife of sorts, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Alek Manoah.
Ultimately, I think Rodríguez will be most effective as a high leverage reliever capable of going multiple innings or even opening some games, but stretching him out as a starter in year one could be challenging…especially after he hardly threw at all in 2023.
No matter how he is used in 2024, the Blue Jays added plenty of talent to their pitching staff for the next several years who could continue to improve as he enters his age-27 season.
3 comments
The article has some nice gifs of each pitch that are worth checking out, but the ads are a bit invasive, so here it is in easier to read form;
**Four Seam Fastball (94-96 mph)**
After averaging 96 mph while touching 100 mph in one and two inning relief spurts, Rodriguez averaged 95 mph in his two WBC starts with a few more 93s mixed in than usual. Again, he has had little experience being stretched out since his fastball ticked up to the upper 90s.
The characteristics of the fastball are unique, generating cut/ride that can make for a unique look for hitters. Almost all fastballs–even four seamers–have some sort of natural horizontal movement. The average MLB right-handed pitcher gets about 16 inches of induced vertical break with a little over seven inches of horizontal movement or arm side run.
Some of the fastballs he will throw feature 15-16 inches of induced vertical break and 0 inches of horizontal, helping it play up at the top of the zone, while others will be closer to 8 to 12 inches of induced vertical break with around -1 to -3 inches of horizontal break, meaning it is going to look more like a true cutter and result in more ground balls.
The variance makes it almost two separate pitches, making it somewhat difficult to concretely project his fastball based on the pitch characteristics, but the variance should work in his favor.
In terms of the average shape, Justin Steele’s fastball is similar, a pitch that performed very well at the big league level in 2023 at a lower velocity (92 mph) and higher release height. This bodes well for the effectiveness of Rodríguez’s fastball should he lose a tick as a starter with the ability to get whiff and weak contact on the ground.
**Sweeper (82-85 mph)**
Rodríguez’s best secondary pitch is his sweeper that he commands well. He went to the pitch around 25% of the time in 2022, landing it for a strike at a near 75% clip. He held opponents to a batting average barely over .100 with gaudy chase rates.
With minimal vertical break, the sweep really plays up, picking up ugly swings from righties with a good enough feel for it to back door lefties or bury it towards their back leg. Command of the pitch and the late movement it features is important for splits as sweepers generally don’t perform nearly as well against opposite-handed hitters.
He will mix in a slurvier breaking ball from time to time with a bit more vertical break, but it can tend to blend with his sweeper some. Since incorporating his new split, the curveball has mostly been phased out.
**Splitter (87-89 mph)**
A newer addition to the arsenal for Rodríguez is his upper 80s splitter that he began to incorporate in 2022. The pitch is still a work in progress, but helps hedge some concern about splits if the sweeper does not quite play as effectively against left-handed hitters as it did in NPB.
He mixed in a few splitters at the WBC that looked like an above average pitch if he can harness it with some consistency.
While his fastball and slider will likely be his bread and butter against right-handed hitters, the splitter should be effective against hitters from both sides of the plate if the feel for it continues to develop. How the pitch comes along could ultimately have a significant bearing on his chances of starting.
**Outlook**
Rodríguez hardly threw in 2023 as he sat out the season in an effort to get his release from the Chunichi Dragons granted. He eventually got his way, meaning the Blue Jays will not even need to pay a posting fee to sign him.
Pitch models like Stuff+ may not love the fastball based on the WBC data, but much like Steele’s cut/ride heater, I expect it to outperform what those models may project. As for the slider, there’s little need for nuance or debate, it’s flat out a plus pitch.
The development of his splitter and how his unique fastball plays against MLB hitters will be key if the goal is to turn lineups over, but Rodriguez has the stuff to be a high leverage arm that helps bolster the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen. He could be a Swiss-Army knife of sorts, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Alek Manoah.
Ultimately, I think Rodríguez will be most effective as a high leverage reliever capable of going multiple innings or even opening some games, but stretching him out as a starter in year one could be challenging…especially after he hardly threw at all in 2023.
No matter how he is used in 2024, the Blue Jays added plenty of talent to their pitching staff for the next several years who could continue to improve as he enters his age-27 season.
Is his deal official now?
No Change eh?
Gonna have to really locate that heater.