Good afternoon, y’all! I wanted to kill some time before Opening Day and thought looking at our position starters would be a fun way to do so. The first entry in this series, [Yainer Diaz](https://www.reddit.com/r/Astros/comments/1asfexr/2024_astros_projected_starters_c_yainer_diaz/), got a good reception so I hope to give a solid follow-up. Unlike Diaz however, I think we’ll be more split on today’s player. So enough of the small talk, let’s get into it.
**DISCLAIMER**: this isn’t meant to be a deep-dive but more a snorkeling-dive, to get the conversation going on how we feel about the position/player and what we expect out of them. Please feel free to comment on formatting, stats presented, etc.
***2023 Stats***
​
|*Stat*|*Value*|*Ranking Among 1B*\*|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Games Played|141|17|
|Plate Appearances|594|17|
|AVG|.237|31|
|HR|18|22 (tied)|
|RBI|90|11|
|R|62|23|
|OBP|.296|35|
|SLG|.383|31|
|OPS|.680|35|
|OPS+|87|35|
|wRC+|86|35|
|K%|21.9|19|
|BB%|7.1|28|
|BABIP|.276|30|
|fWAR|\-0.6|35|
|bWAR|0.0|NA|
\*Based on 1B w/ at least 400 PA in 2023 (35 total); I had trouble sorting WAR by position on baseball reference which is why I put NA on the rankings. If anyone can help me out with that, I’d be happy to update the chart.
[Baseball Savant Page](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-abreu-547989?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb)
**What To Look Forward To & Be Concerned About**
Look, I ain’t gonna lie to y’all, I came out of this way less optimistic than I was coming in. I was more patient with Abreu than most last year but even still . . . the numbers paint a rough picture. However, it’s not all doom and gloom and I have just enough hopium to believe Abreu can have a DECENT season this year.
Let’s just state the obvious: Abreu was arguably the worst starting 1B in 2023. And for the first couple months, the worst MLB hitter in general! We were warned of Abreu’s cold starts but this was a damn arctic freeze. Unless you’re color blind, the amount of blue and absence of red on his savant page will make you weep. His defense ranges in the slightly-below-average zone (DRS of -1). For extra fuel to the fire, he’s now 37 years old and you gotta think not if his power and reaction-time will dip more, but how much it’ll dip by. Of course, that’s without mentioning how much he’s getting paid.
So u/KingJacobyaropa, I hear you ask, where is the hope?! Are we gonna DFA Abreu and resign [Yuli](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/yuli-gurriel-493329?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb) to a league minimum salary and run it back?! No, not that. I offer only his 2nd half and playoff performance as a potential sign that he can still play well (somewhat). In the 1st half, Abreu slashed .237/.286/.344 vs in the 2nd half .238/.313/.447. Of course, that’s not an amazing upgrade but it’s still a big difference. And in the playoffs is where MVP Abreu came out for a bit, slashing .295/.354/.591. I’m not saying Abreu will be that player for the whole year but it’s good to see that player is still in there especially when the pressure is higher.
**My Prediction/Conclusion**
I wish I could say Abreu will bounce back and go off this year but I don’t believe that, not fully at least. And I’m not gonna say it can’t get worse because it most certainly can get worse. However, I think with a full year in Houston under his belt, and with a manager who will probably give him more days off, Abreu will not be as bad as in 2023.
He’ll be MID, perfectly serviceable in 2024. He’ll be the Honda Civic of 1B. Give me a season of an OPS+ in the 95-105 range and I’ll be happy. Sure, that’s not worth what the Astros are paying him but I’m not gonna be that picky. But for all that is holy, please not another 2 months of sub .600 OPS to start the year.
What do y’all think though? Is this a fair expectation for Abreu in 2024? Or am I desperately trying to convince myself that he isn’t a lost cause? Will he exceed his 18 HRs from last year? Can he at least hit more doubles to make up for a HR dip? Where do you think Espada will place him in the lineup? Thanks for the read and I hope it was informative.
8 comments
I agree. I expect him to be better than last year but not insanely better like he was in Chicago. I’d be happy with and will predict an OPS+ of 104. He will also get more consistent rest this year.
I think he’s got a little more in the tank and can give us an OPS+ of around 110-120 with 25 HR and around 100 RBIs (if he keeps hitting in the middle of the order)
EDIT: Just saw he took up Pilates in the offseason, I’m sure he’s in the “best shape of his life.” Incoming .300/40/120 MVP season.
I know he had a rep for slow starts, but I think he felt some added pressure coming to a contender and being the big off season signing. Hoping for a quicker start this year.
Maybe he’ll start hitting by August instead of September.
I don’t think it can get worse because Espada is not Dusty – he’s not going to stick with a guy who is performing worse than a AAA player.
I think he’ll get more rest this year. He performed his best when he was getting more rest at the end of the season. Some combination of Cabbage/Singleton/Caratini to provide more time off and hopefully keep him rested. Dont think he’ll perform to the contract, but hopefully not as bad as last year
here’s what I’m wondering, if we get into June and July and jose is putting up 2023 numbers (.220ish average, sub .700 OPS, zero power) do we cut our losses halfway thru his contract and DFA him?
hopefully it doesn’t come to that.
My hope is that they will give him a day off every week and that with that rest he can be more like he was last year after his IL stint.
So if he starts 110-120 games and gets 450-500 plate appearances and slashes his 3 year average of 2021-2023 .269/.344./.438 with 18 homers that would be pretty cool?
Basically, let’s just go from dead last worst, to somewhere in the 3 quartile? Could he just be like… Brandon Drury? Connor Joe?