2024 Buffalo Bills full post-combine mock offseason (Part 2: draft with detailed explanations + full projected 53 man roster)

Below is a full mock approach to the Bills roster and needs this offseason. Split into sections with detailed explanations. (Had to split into 2 parts due to reddit character count)

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[Full projected roster here and explanations below](https://preview.redd.it/7enkks3ksimc1.png?width=1108&format=png&auto=webp&s=33d75b868048a5b26c530cd9fa485a9258ae88e3)

2023 mock offseason: [Bills subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/11bwnbs/buffalo_bills_full_precombine_mock_offseason_free/), [NFL Draft subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/11bwrvk/buffalo_bills_full_precombine_mock_offseason_free/)

2023 mock offseason review: [Bills subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/1apuqex/revisiting_my_2023_mock_offseason_how_did_i_do/), [NFL Draft subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1apuus9/revisiting_my_2023_mock_offseason_how_did_i_do/)

# 7.) Day 1 and 2 Draft

With all the moves above made, my draft philosophy is to double dip at WR in this potential historical class with our first two picks, considering tradedowns to build up more early day 3 capital. While trading out of the late 3rd rounder to build up capital as well.

**First pick:**

**Priority: Andrew Ladd McConkey, UGA**

I am very very bullish on McConkey, versus consensus and in a vacuum.

He has been on my radar since his RS freshman year in 2021 (the Auburn game specifically), and he broke out even more in 2022 (the Oregon game put him in the first round conversation for me) while showing more of the same good play albeit missing time in 2023. He has an early to mid-first round grade for me, while he is hovering around the early second round level on the consensus big board (on nflmockdraftdatabase website).

I don’t like using prospect to pro comps too seriously as every player is unique albeit there being similarities. But he reminds me of Lockett in the deep game, Baldwin in his releases and some Ceedee in his YAC. But another way of putting it is just that he is a bigger and faster Tank Dell.

While I wouldn’t go as far as calling him the best overall WR in this class, he is certainly in my view the clear best route runner and separator, with other additional skills that are on the higher end too.

Has both elite smoothness and sharpness in his breaks, very dangerous at the release and shows a veteran level ability and understanding of how to attack leverages of DBs.

I can see him being a top 15 maybe top 10 route runner as soon as he enters the league.

He can excel at Z and in the slot but also has the releases to play against press at X in the NFL and can also win at all 3 levels.

(2022 Kent State game is a huge outlier and for sure a game he’d like to forget)

He is also one of the better YAC threats in this WR class (only firmly behind Corley whose game is mostly YAC based, and Malik Nabers) with his shiftiness and speed in the open field.

He also has good (but not elite) deep speed with his acceleration being even better. The 4.39 40 yard dash does not surprise me. Matching the eye test, I read he registered 21mph+ as a ball carrier vs Texas A&M which would get him in the top 10 in the NFL in most seasons.

While I think his size “concerns” are overblown, he has shown an ability to catch balls outside of his frame. This ability was there but inconsistent in 2021 (failing to complete a high cover 2 hole shot vs Clemson, but also making a great contested endzone fade vs Vandy), improved a lot more over 2022-2023. He has always shown a willingness and toughness to catch passes over the middle.

Just see how McConkey’s measurements size up against similar premier WRs:

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[For reference, Dell lined up wide 70.1% in 2023 per PFF, Addison at 70.7%. AB lined up wide at an 83.6% throughout his career with only his shortened NE season having less than half of his snaps out wide.](https://preview.redd.it/n0kwlkmbtimc1.png?width=355&format=png&auto=webp&s=1eeac06a6c6240cee62bc3aa63969f3ce7bd727f)

On top of what I have seen on film, his analytics advanced metrics are also highly favourable, as per PFF:

McConkey lined up wide at a 78.7% rate in 2023, ahead of other notable prospects such as Malik Nabers, Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette and just slightly behind Marvin Harrison Jr.

McConkey’s ADoT of 12.2 was ahead of Nabers and Worthy and within a yard of Coleman, MHJ and Troy Franklin.

Despite these constricting parameters, McConkey had a 81.1% catch rate, higher than anyone notable, as well as an elite 3.3 yards per route run measure.

So anyone who comps him Edelman/Amendola/Renfrow/Beasley are just wrong or lazy in my view.

I would be happy taking him at 28 but would like to see if we can trade down a bit (anywhere from Baltimore at 30 to Carolina at 33) and still get him, dependant on how the board shapes up.

A good realistic scenario is a high value RT falls to 28 and we trade with SF, keeping us ahead of KC.

Depending on the Ravens WR needs, it could be risky trading below them due to the Todd Monken connection.

**Brian Thomas Jr., LSU**

Much higher among consensus but I view him mostly similarly to McConkey as an overall grade. In general I find it very difficult to rank receivers of similar calibres but of completely different styles as it is very nuanced.

In terms of style rather than just calibre, I feel like McConkey is a much better fit than Thomas but I can certainly be tempted by having Thomas.

Thomas is to me the best pure vertical outside WR that can really stretch opposing defenses, much in line with consensus view on him. Underrated releases, good ball tracking, great size and speed combo, solid but not spectacular at the catchpoint.

One small point I’d add is that Thomas has shown that he CAN hands catch well but he does have a strong preference to body catch.

The Bills WR room is lacking in all aspects rather than just a deep threat and the upside to McConkey over the middle of the field, in the short and intermediate areas, in the redzone etc are greater to me, but should the Bills draft Thomas at 28 I’d still be happy with that even though it is not what I would personally do.

**Adonai Mitchell, Texas**

Mitchell is also in the similar range on the consensus big board to McConkey, and to me is purely as a contingency option if both McConkey and Thomas are gone by our pick (gone at 28, or a tradedown that backfired).

In view, Mitchell is stylistically the same player as Brian Thomas Jr. He is a smaller and slower (on film) version. While Thomas has better releases to me (Mitchell can take a lot of wasted steps), Mitchell is overall the better route runner: he has even smoother and sharper breaks and has shown an even better understanding than Thomas in how to attack leverages.

While I personally have a late first round grade on Mitchell, there can be argument that the league could see him fall lower: his box score production is poor as are his advanced analytics metrics. His YPRR is at 1.7 which is lower than most notable WR prospects in the entire class and his 71.9 PFF grade is also on the slightly lower end for 1st round prospects.

**WRs I want to avoid:**

**Troy Franklin, Oregon**

The most often mocked WR to the Bills I see that I want to avoid.

Franklin possesses terrific top speed, albeit above average but not elite short acceleration on film and is a highly credible threat to stretch defenses. Despite being lower on him than consensus, I would argue that his slower than expected 40 time does not represent his field speed.

His hands are a red flag, both on film as an unnatural catcher whenever ball is slightly off-placement with his 10% drop rate per PFF.

Rail thin frame: Already had worryingly small measurements at Oregon, and he proceeded to weigh in lighter and measure shorter than his Oregon numbers.

Highly worried about his thin frame being rerouted or locked up vs physical corners like Sneed, Sauce and Ramsey, both at the release and downfield. Didn’t face many jams in college.

Route breaks are not sudden or twitchy at all, manageable for vertical routes as long as he keeps attacking leverages and stays untouched, but likely prevents him from being a capable stop route runner, out breakers and likely a non-factor in the endzone where speed is less of a plus.

Good YAC numbers but mostly scheme based rather than tackle beating based (PFF has his avoided tackle rate at 17.3% which is bang average despite 6.6 YAC/reception being well above average in the 2024 draft class)

This is teachable but I did not like a habit he had in zone where he’d just keep on drifting through coverage rather than finding and settling in between defenders to make himself QB friendly.

I hate player comps being the be all and end all, but: a totally different player than Davis but could see similar results: outstanding highlight reel, averages 1 or 2 amazing plays a game over a season’s sample size, but can be AWOL and highly inconsistent on a down to down basis.

I also had this view prior to his record breaking 40 yard dash, but if I wanted an undersized deep speed WR, I’d much rather have Xavier Worthy. Worthy runs better routes, and “fixed” his 2022 drop issue in 2023 and it has been reported that he played with a broken hand in 2022.

Will give credit where credit is due, he certainly is a far better run blocker at that size than I was expecting to see on film, which I respect.

**Keon Coleman, FSU**

I value Keon Coleman in the mid second, but my view on him carries a lot more uncertainty and agnosticism than most of the other top WRs.

I studied his 2022 Michigan State tape as well as his 2023 FSU tape. In 2023 he struggled to separate but excelled at playing through contact at the start of the season. Late season film was worse but reportedly played through an injury which I cannot verify as an outsider.

He did however show more ability to separate in 2022 but Jayden Reed was getting a lot of the targets while Coleman was open.

PFF’s numbers support this as his only 18.2% of his targets were contested in 2022 (less than MHJ, Odunze, Legette and MHJ) vs 34.5% being contested in 2023 which is ahead of all notable WR prospects. Sample size of targets were very similar across both years.

# WR double dip to consider for second pick:

So hopefully McConkey would have been picked at 28, or with a slight tradedown. Then I’d like to find a bigger WR to complement him and the WR room which is lacking size mainly now. If the board is shaping up well here, a small tradedown could also be considered.

**Xavier Legette, South Carolina**

I also have a late first round grade on Legette, but that comes with some uncertainty and it’s even harder to gauge where the league and consensus sees him which seems all over the place. (Dane Brugler has him 80, PFF has him 74 Lance Zierlein has him at WR17, while the mockdraftdatabase consensus big board has him hovering 50-60, he was outside of Jeremiah’s latest top 50)

Outside the film, the fifth-year breakout after four years of nothing is a point of concern.

But what I see on his 2023 film highly impresses me:

* Great natural hands catcher than regularly makes tough catches outside his frame in traffic.
* Route tree was limited but the movement ability was there, can stop very quickly and cut sharply for his size, best demonstrated by his curl and comeback routes.
* Was very good at gaining inside leverage, where he can run gos, posts and slants from exceptionally.
* Plays even faster than the already fast 4.39 40 he ran (looks more like a low 4.3s player)
* Very dangerous with the ball in his hands, especially with his ability to gain inside leverage and then to run away from defenders.
* Better at the break than he is at the release (especially vs press).

This is teachable, but his routes and stems lack nuance for certain routes: he never threatened the inside for out breaking routes.

The fade route has a lot of potential but needs the most work: when facing a DB with outside leverage in off coverage, Legette run straight at the outside without challenging the DB inside and getting his flips to turn in, closing off the space to the sideline and giving himself much less room for error.

This actually brings a very interesting point to the nuances of grading (for evaluation vs projection), he managed to win running fades vs outside leverage off coverage in a textbook incorrect manner multiple times (twice vs UNC, once vs Miss St. simply because he was bigger and more athletic).

He tried doing the same thing against Clemson with Nate Wiggins and failed didn’t win those reps.

He has shown that he can challenge the inside for outbreakers at times on film (released inside on his out route at the start of the UGA game, threatened the inside for his double move TD vs Kentucky), it is something he needs to do more consistently.

Definitely something to bring up if the Bills interview him.

**Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington**

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In contrast to Legette, Polk is a lower risk but much more solid high floor option to bring size to a WR room.

Like Legette, I highly rate his ball skills and like the toughness he shows making catches over the middle and he can regularly make tough grabs outside of his frame.

Shows more nuance and polish with his route running

Consensus big board has him at a similar range to Legette but his average athletic testing when so many WRs “won” the combine could have him slip through the cracks.

As an aside, I know they lost by more than a TD but Penix had him open for a deep TD in the Championship final but checked it down instead at the start of the game.

**These are only if they slide semi unexpectedly:**

**Adonai Mitchell, Texas**

As said above, I am personally higher on Mitchell but am unsure how the league will see him. Revisiting this after the combine, he certainly “won” the testing but the aforementioned production, or lack thereof could still act in Buffalo’s favour if it causes him to slide.

I doubt this would happen with how he tested but is something worth considering.

**Keon Coleman, FSU**

See analysis above, I’d be very happy to get Coleman at 60. His “poor testing” could facilitate in a slide. Would be a very good pairing with McConkey.

**Second round WR if BTJ or Mitchell was picked instead of McConkey:**

If we miss out on McConkey and get a size/speed mismatch type, then he would best be complemented with a high volume WR with their calling card being the separation/route running. Below are two players of that style which I have second round grades for both.

* Roman Wilson, Michigan
* Ricky Pearsall, Florida

**If second round WR choices dried up:**

Not ideal but something to prepare for. If the WR prospects at 60 aren’t worth it, that would likely mean other positions could have been pushed down by a WR run.

Notable targets include:

* Safeties Tyler Nubin (Minnesota) and Javon Bullard (UGA)
* 1-tech/nose tackle T’Vondre Sweat (UT)
* 3-tech DT Braden Fiske (FSU)
* OC Zach Frazier (UWV)

If we miss out on a WR double dip, I do want to attack the position further in Day 3.

# 8.) Day 3 draft strategy

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[Day 3 targets table: There are close to 20 names and I don’t expect all of them to be drafted, and in fact repeating positions are either\/or alternatives to look out for unless stated otherwise. Loosely sorted by preference \(a combination of need and my grades\)](https://preview.redd.it/96oxweo2uimc1.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae783a1397020de23ad1e5213f9e5f809737a816)

**Mo Kamara, DE, CSU**

Slightly undersized but has good burst, bend and polish (not a project).

Excelled against weaker competition, would be an early second round grade had he shown the same things on film in a Power 5 conference.

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https://preview.redd.it/99imhez8uimc1.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3797301ae4eeb35ab513e327769e1ebd10d310a

**Jaylen Wright, RB, Tenn or Audric Estime, RB, ND**

Wright has a highly desirable size/speed combo and runs with very good contact balance, reminds me of Isiah Pacheco as a runner but also more developed as a pass catcher and protector.

His production was facilitated from a lot of lighter boxes from what I saw on tape, but I wouldn’t count that against him too much.

https://preview.redd.it/9umlocpbuimc1.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=05e1775591df51bc8e2e94e923aab30812c9b8e3

Estime is bulkier and also slower on film in comparison, but not as slow as his 40 implies. Good powerful runner, okay receiver and in pass pro. Good lateral agility for someone of his size.

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https://preview.redd.it/m16caz4duimc1.png?width=786&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd8585fc12cea460da01b031e9f814629aadd624

**Khristian Boyd, DT, UNI**

Small school prospect dominated in the Shrine Bowl and was basically unblockable there, can play both 1-tech and 3-tech on the Bills DL.

Put up good film vs Iowa State at the FBS level.

**Beaux Limmer, OC, Ark**

Limmer is not a steal but more of a necessity pick. I haven’t watched any centres that I think are undervalued, where consensus has his is roughly where I have him (4th round grade). Good the run game, can be vulnerable to lateral quickness in pass pro. Had a good Senior Bowl with the exception of one rep against T’Vondre Sweat.

https://preview.redd.it/l46b3dsfuimc1.png?width=774&format=png&auto=webp&s=be4ae23870c10bebd7a2612ae898e7e1ad133bb3

**Javon Baker, WR, UCF or Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan**

Baker is a good contested catcher, is a decent but not spectacular route runner that just put up good film at UCF. Experienced facing press man on the outside.

Johnson has a lot of experience and playing time at Michigan. Solid but not spectacular, can play X and all around.

Good mix of route running and ball skills, ran faster 40 than what I saw on film (4.5s).

Weird stance at the LOS, excessively wide, would like our coaching staff to see if they can get it to narrow.

One of the better WRs at scramble drills on film during the McCarthy era.

**Sione Vaki, S, Utah**

Definitely a projection based pick and a project. Bishop was the more refined safety for Utah who played better on film.

But Vaki is relatively inexperienced and he plays with very good toughness and aggression, I believe he is quite far from his ceiling. Much better athlete and movement skills at his size than what he managed to test at.

Can be coached up well by our staff ready to compete in 2025.

**Brennan Jackson, DE, WSU & Zion Tupuloa Fetui, DE, Wash**

Jackson has a good athletic profile that was demonstrated in both testing and on film. Has a good combo of size, power and strength to overwhelm tackles but lacks the refinement and pass rush moves to develop his game further. Decent bend, especially for his size.

ZTF is one of the trickiest evals in 2024. A perfect example of why you should just declare as early as possible as his 2020 tape (vs Oregon St. and Utah) was second round worthy but has not played at that level since. Had injuries and then personal tragedy to deal with, and these prospects are humans too, a gamble on whether he can get back to his 2021 form.

**Logan Lee, DT, Utah**

Moot if Shelby Harris is signed, especially if Boyd is drafted earlier.

Weirdly played 1-tech quite a bit despite having a DE/DT hybrid size profile. Can only see him at 3-tech in the NFL level.

Very soild and stout against the run, has aggressive hands, can push the pocket well vs the pass but needs to work on more moves. Gets erased by double teams when pass rushing.

Performed well at the Shrine Bowl. Athletic testing is below average.

Noticed him last year when watching Lukas Van Ness tape.

**Sataloa Laumea, OT, Utah**

Moot if Edwards is extended and Limmer is drafted.

Played tackle on film but struggled with speed on the outside, but a decent mover in the run game and had good anchor. Flashed at reps at guard in the senior bowl.

**Cody Schrader, RB, Missou**

A real “steady eddy” type of RB, consistent but not flashy. Good vision, good contact balance allows him to contribute, below average athletic profile and isn’t a game breaking threat for opposing defenses to plan around. Would be my go-to 4 minute drill back, or just whenever a long clock chewing drive is needed.

**Tanner Mclachlan, TE, Ari, Tip Reiman, TE, Illinois & AJ Barner, TE, Mich**

Mclachlan had the best all round film of these TEs to me but his measurements are much smaller than expected.

Despite being Kincaid sized, lined up in-line a lot and was a good blocker there. Reliable hands, excels at finding space in zone defenses, dynamic with ball in hand and okay separator.

Worst rep was at pass pro vs Laiatu Latu 1 on 1 but why would you let him (or any college TE) do that.

In all fairness, Kittle was not that big coming out of college.

https://preview.redd.it/nizgwh6nuimc1.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd3cccc1f8bff52b2d750f9e6a60da1b146a07a9

Reiman has more of the prototypical size measurements for an inline TE than Mclachlan but also flashed on film. Not as much of a receiving threat but still solid. Reiman’s combine had him shooting up the consensus big board in a manner of days.

Barner is the highest among these consensus late day 3 TEs. The best run blocker of the 3, possesses solid hands but “dynamic” and “explosive” are far from his game. Not surprised he didn’t run a 40. Looks very slow with the ball in his hands, zero YAC.

**Ryan Rehkow, P, BYU & Tory Taylor, P, Iowa**

After having already spent hours on prospects, I will just defer and delegate to a STs expert [Isaac Punts](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVBKaRROu54&pp=ygUXaXNhYWMgcHVudHMgdG9wIHB1bnRlcnM%3D) for the punters. He has Rehkow as P1 and Taylor as P2, despite Rehkow not being ranked on the consensus big board.