I don't envy the FO in some of decisions they're going to have to make this summer.
12 comments
Why they went in for the deadline, they have to win with this group now.
Nothing on that list seems problematic to me given the cap space and where we’re at with a few of them already.
It’s a lot of moving pieces but this FO has done a great job of setting themselves up to able to handle it.
Yes, there’s going to be turnover. No, the quality of the team isn’t going to drop off of a cliff.
Neither Raanta nor Martin should be on this list, as Raanta is done and Martin is signed.
Then there are three RFAs.
Then we have a boatload of cap space.
We’re losing probably 2-3 guys on this list (excluding Raanta). DeAngelo, Pesce/Skjei, and maybe a Guentzel/Necas/Drury/Turbo, depending on who takes team friendly deals.That’s my expectation, anyway.
Don’t mind if we drop Raanta and TDA, but losing any of the others will start to hurt. I’m assuming Guentzel is for sure heading back to Pittsburgh if we don’t at least make the final, though I’m open to being pleasantly surprised on that front.
Glad my name is not Tom or Don as that’s a lot of cash to shuffle around a bunch of great players.
The only real challenges here are TT, Necas, Guentzel, Pesce, and Skjei. At least 2 will likely be gone, maybe a 3rd.
Reason number 3649 that I could not be in charge of the roster:
I like our team. I don’t want anyone to go. Everyone should just stay forever.
(Yes, I do understand that would not make for the best hockey team)
This is how I think these will go:
Tuevo – will take a friendly deal to keep playing with Aho because they are tight. Current AAV 5.4 and that’s where he will stay.
Geuntzel – Probably not what people are hoping for but he walks, he wants to test free agency and we will be outbid. He was always just a rental for us.
Martinook – Likely back at similar or slightly lower price tag due to age. 1.8 AAV. Easy to fit him in.
Noesen – Going to get a raise. Current AAV is only about 760k. I would guess he’s back at around 1.5 – 2 mil and is worth that. But relatively speaking still an easy contract to fit.
Necas – The biggest question mark of the summer IMO. Can we fit him? Do we want to? Does he want to? Ultimately I think it’s going to depend on how DW prioritizes his signings. We can easily keep him at the expense of other pieces, but if Don prioritizes said other pieces then there just isn’t going to be enough left for Necas. He will get offered out of our reach or he will go to arb and we’ll end up needing to trade his rights. I would say it’s less than 50% we keep him, but not a ton less.
Drury – Not arb eligible and he plays really good in our system but isn’t flashy enough to attract a lot of outside attention. I think we end up keeping him at a modest 2-3 mil if we want, otherwise we may let him go just to use that cap space elsewhere. I think in terms of priority there are several higher ones that need to be handled first.
Jarvis – Absolute 100% sign, move Heaven and Earth. 7.5 mil 8 years. Will look like a steal inside of 3 years. Hell 8×8 will look like a steal.
Skjei – Needs to be the number one priority re-signing on defense. Currently 5.2 mil AAV, expect that to go up a full mil at least. I could see him asking for and getting 7+.
Pesce – Is going to have to seriously consider re-signing at current AAV if he wants to stay with us. He can get more on the market and if he wants more, IMO we can let him walk. He’s good, but not irreplaceable. Perhaps a desire to continue playing with Skjei will make him consider a friendly offer.
Chatfield – Current AAV 762k, if we can retain him at 2 mil AAV or lower I think it’s a no-brainer. Any higher than that and we need to consider our priorities, who else is staying and who is leaving, what upcoming prospects look like, etc. I think he has an argument he’s worth more, I just don’t see it as a slam dunk signing with our cap space if he goes higher.
TDA – Walks. Too expensive for a 7 D. If we lose two or more of our other D-men, *maybe* he stays on another 1 year. But it has to be lower AAV. He’s eminently replaceable so no big worry.
Raanta – Retires
Martin – N/A, already addressed.
Losing Turbo would legit break my heart
This is gonna be a rough ass summer
Just going on my quick thoughts: Turbo will be resigned. Guentzel will leave as a UFA and get PAID. Martinook will take a short team friendly deal. Noesen is 50/50. Lots of teams will be wanting that around the net skill set. Necas will be the first RFA re-signed. Drury will be the last RFA re-signed. Jarvis will sign a bridge deal. Skjei will probably be back 50/50 with Pesce. Pesce see above. Chatfield won’t be back but will get a good deal to play more somewhere else. TDA will be gone. Raanta will retire. Martin is already signed.
12 comments
Why they went in for the deadline, they have to win with this group now.
Nothing on that list seems problematic to me given the cap space and where we’re at with a few of them already.
It’s a lot of moving pieces but this FO has done a great job of setting themselves up to able to handle it.
Yes, there’s going to be turnover. No, the quality of the team isn’t going to drop off of a cliff.
Neither Raanta nor Martin should be on this list, as Raanta is done and Martin is signed.
Then there are three RFAs.
Then we have a boatload of cap space.
We’re losing probably 2-3 guys on this list (excluding Raanta). DeAngelo, Pesce/Skjei, and maybe a Guentzel/Necas/Drury/Turbo, depending on who takes team friendly deals.That’s my expectation, anyway.
Don’t mind if we drop Raanta and TDA, but losing any of the others will start to hurt. I’m assuming Guentzel is for sure heading back to Pittsburgh if we don’t at least make the final, though I’m open to being pleasantly surprised on that front.
Glad my name is not Tom or Don as that’s a lot of cash to shuffle around a bunch of great players.
The only real challenges here are TT, Necas, Guentzel, Pesce, and Skjei. At least 2 will likely be gone, maybe a 3rd.
Reason number 3649 that I could not be in charge of the roster:
I like our team. I don’t want anyone to go. Everyone should just stay forever.
(Yes, I do understand that would not make for the best hockey team)
This is how I think these will go:
Tuevo – will take a friendly deal to keep playing with Aho because they are tight. Current AAV 5.4 and that’s where he will stay.
Geuntzel – Probably not what people are hoping for but he walks, he wants to test free agency and we will be outbid. He was always just a rental for us.
Martinook – Likely back at similar or slightly lower price tag due to age. 1.8 AAV. Easy to fit him in.
Noesen – Going to get a raise. Current AAV is only about 760k. I would guess he’s back at around 1.5 – 2 mil and is worth that. But relatively speaking still an easy contract to fit.
Necas – The biggest question mark of the summer IMO. Can we fit him? Do we want to? Does he want to? Ultimately I think it’s going to depend on how DW prioritizes his signings. We can easily keep him at the expense of other pieces, but if Don prioritizes said other pieces then there just isn’t going to be enough left for Necas. He will get offered out of our reach or he will go to arb and we’ll end up needing to trade his rights. I would say it’s less than 50% we keep him, but not a ton less.
Drury – Not arb eligible and he plays really good in our system but isn’t flashy enough to attract a lot of outside attention. I think we end up keeping him at a modest 2-3 mil if we want, otherwise we may let him go just to use that cap space elsewhere. I think in terms of priority there are several higher ones that need to be handled first.
Jarvis – Absolute 100% sign, move Heaven and Earth. 7.5 mil 8 years. Will look like a steal inside of 3 years. Hell 8×8 will look like a steal.
Skjei – Needs to be the number one priority re-signing on defense. Currently 5.2 mil AAV, expect that to go up a full mil at least. I could see him asking for and getting 7+.
Pesce – Is going to have to seriously consider re-signing at current AAV if he wants to stay with us. He can get more on the market and if he wants more, IMO we can let him walk. He’s good, but not irreplaceable. Perhaps a desire to continue playing with Skjei will make him consider a friendly offer.
Chatfield – Current AAV 762k, if we can retain him at 2 mil AAV or lower I think it’s a no-brainer. Any higher than that and we need to consider our priorities, who else is staying and who is leaving, what upcoming prospects look like, etc. I think he has an argument he’s worth more, I just don’t see it as a slam dunk signing with our cap space if he goes higher.
TDA – Walks. Too expensive for a 7 D. If we lose two or more of our other D-men, *maybe* he stays on another 1 year. But it has to be lower AAV. He’s eminently replaceable so no big worry.
Raanta – Retires
Martin – N/A, already addressed.
Losing Turbo would legit break my heart
This is gonna be a rough ass summer
Just going on my quick thoughts:
Turbo will be resigned.
Guentzel will leave as a UFA and get PAID.
Martinook will take a short team friendly deal.
Noesen is 50/50. Lots of teams will be wanting that around the net skill set.
Necas will be the first RFA re-signed.
Drury will be the last RFA re-signed.
Jarvis will sign a bridge deal.
Skjei will probably be back 50/50 with Pesce.
Pesce see above.
Chatfield won’t be back but will get a good deal to play more somewhere else.
TDA will be gone.
Raanta will retire.
Martin is already signed.