1. The New Orleans Pelicans (and Trey Murphy III) are happening … right?
The Pelicans' true level of seriousness has yet to be determined. On paper, their case is ironclad. Roaring through the softest part of their schedule has left the Pelicans with the league's fourth-best point differential. They are 10th in offensive efficiency and sixth in defense — one of four teams in the top 10 in both.
They are 21-13 on the road and 20-17 against teams above .500. And yet accounting for injuries to opponents' stars, the Pelicans' only landmark win of the past two months came on the road against the LA Clippers — a physical, playoff-style game. In fairness, the Pelicans have dealt with their share of injuries. They also blew out the Indiana Pacers at home two weeks ago — a good win.
They had a solid grasp on the No. 5 seed and tons of media attention as they opened a tougher portion of their schedule Wednesday … and got rolled at home by the Cleveland Cavaliers. The skeptics crowed, recalling New Orleans spotlight pratfall in the in-season tournament semifinals: This team is interesting, and weird, and sometimes awesome — but they are not serious people.
We'll know more soon; the Pelicans face the Clippers on Friday, with games against the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Miami Heat and Orlando Magic in the next two weeks.
The Pelicans are weird. Even with more time together, the starry trio of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum is minus-nine in 658 minutes. The spacing can get clunky.
The coaching staff never seems entirely sure about which center — Larry Nance Jr. or Jonas Valanciunas — fits better with certain core lineup combinations, or how much (if at all) to shift Williamson to center. There is a gray area between versatility and confusion; the Pelicans live there.
But something real is happening. You don't win on the road and pile up a top-five scoring margin over 65 games by accident. In some of those wins against bad and injury-ravaged teams, the Pelicans rampaged to huge first-quarter leads — icy statements of supremacy: We are better than you, and we don't have time for this.
Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III are the skeleton keys that have unlocked the Pelicans' identity. After a slow start recovering from knee issues, Murphy is up to 37% on an ungodly 10 3s per 36 minutes. Insert him for one of the Pelicans' three stars, and the team sings. Slotting Murphy one pass away from a Williamson isolation puts the defense is in a bind; Murphy is growing comfortable driving by defenders who rush to close out on him:
His off-the-bounce game is a little stiff, but it works because of his size and the threat of his jump shot.
The Pelicans often have Murphy set on-ball picks for Williamson, rocket off flare screens from Nance and keep the offense chugging from there:
Jones is one of the league's dozen best defenders, and he's shooting 43.5% on 3s. Holy god. If he sustains anything close to 40%, Jones becomes maybe the league's premiere role player. He is in the first year of a four-year, $53.8 million deal that may be the single best non-rookie contract in the league (from the team perspective, anyway).
In 494 minutes with both Jones and Murphy on the floor, the Pelicans are plus-144.
Ingram is attacking with new grit and steeliness. McCollum has migrated toward the 3-point arc to open the paint for Williamson and Ingram. The past month has been the best of Williamson's career on defense. He's even showing signs of life on the defensive glass, long an embarrassing weak spot. That helps the Pelicans' offense too, because Williamson can turn defensive rebounds into stampeding layups:
If New Orleans makes the playoffs, its opponents will peck at Williamson's defense at a level he has never seen. It will be relentless. Teams will yank him into one pick-and-roll after another, testing his will to make multiple rotations, trying to exhaust and even humiliate him.
Is he ready? How will the Pelicans respond to postseason adversity? It would be great theater.
This team is onto something. It is dangerous, even if it still has a lot to prove.
6 comments
Thanks for sharing! Good write up
beautiful article
It feels like our starters have played much better since all star break. Hopefully we’ve turned a corner on that rather large issue.
Also feels like Larry Nance has no bounce. Still making smart plays but it’s noticeable. I wonder if we’re going to the noncenter lineups more because of this.
Just checked lineup data.
Starters pre ASB: -0.8 netrtg
Starters post ASB: 12.6 netrtg
Nance replacing JV.
Pre: 0.8 netrtg
Post: -4.5 netrtg
Zach has been reading my [reddit comments](https://old.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/199fpyw/highlight_zion_forces_a_turnover_from_lamelo/kilmylt/) /s
I pray that teams actually do try to pick-n-roll Zion to death in the playoffs.
I understand the idea about his endurance, and making him play harder on the defensive end wears down his offensive capabilities.
But they’ll be playing right into our hands man. We don’t get beaten down by teams pounding the ball into the paint. If you slow the game down we’re going to kill you. Other teams have to recognize that they have to control the pace themselves. They absolutely cannot allow us to dictate the game, because that’s when we’re at our best.
Allowing Zion to play point of attack defense honestly is not what a team really wants to do. He can stay in front of most guys when he’s actively involved in the defense. Teams are more successful (in my eyes) when they focus on involving Zion in frequent off-ball actions. His aggressive tendencies, as well as his tendency to fall asleep/ball watch are really his biggest weaknesses. Zion’s athleticism allows him to keep up on ball.
It’ll also allow Herb to reek havoc on the rest of the defense in a free safety style. A luxury that other teams cannot afford.
You’re gunna be way better off attacking BI or whoever our center is. Lots of inside-outside actions creating open threes beats us. Not hoping to get Zion out of possession 40 times in a night.
Only team I worry about it the Nuggets because Jokic is the only guy capable of exploiting exactly the weaknesses of our defense. I do not fear any other teams inside-outside game enough to beat us in a 7 game series. If we’re hitting shots, I don’t think another team is capable of blowing up our defense quite well enough to overwhelm us. Even if you can attack one point of our defense, the rest of it holds up. Very much “Bend Don’t Break” like those ’10s Saints defenses.
I wonder how we’d do with a small ball lineup with Z at the center and Trey starting in place of Jonas.