As free agency starts to die down after it's initial furry and wave, it's important to remember there's still plenty of starters out there to be signed, though at this point, the Lions moves for Carlton Davis and D.J. Reader do clear their draft board up a bit.
In this mock draft, we will be doing a slight trade down the boards. The hypothetical here is that the Kansas City Chiefs want an upgrade at wide receiver and wish to trade up to grab one, and thus I used PFF's trade tool to determine the value. What I got out of the deal was this…
Detroit sends: first-round pick (1.29)
Kansas City sends: first-round pick (1.32), fourth-round pick (4.132), and 2025 fifth-round pick.
Some might find it a bit light, but I was content with it. I am not a big pick swap guy, at least when I'm on the trade down side of things, as I think more is actually better than slightly better picks, as Day 3 hit rates are so low that sliding down from the 6th to the 5th is not as advantageous in my mind as grabbing an extra 7th. Some will disagree, but landed on this deal. So overall another pair of early Day 2 picks to slide back three spots in the first round. Worth it in my opinion.
Round 1, Pick #32 (via KC) – Georgia CB Kamari Lassiter
There's been some buzz around Lassiter at the moment, largely due to inconsistently reported forty-yard dash times at his Pro Day. Field Yates reported it was 4.51 second forty, which if added to his RAS profile with similar percentile projected splits on that, his RAS actually climbs up to a solid 8.43 overall, thanks in part due to his elite agility performance as well. He measured in at the Combine at 5-11, 186 pounds, putting him at plenty adequate enough size for Detroit, arguably even preferential, given Holmes' tendency towards 5-11 corners with versatility.
Admittedly, my scouting background is arguably weakest when it comes to cornerbacks. I myself am a former offensive lineman, who played college ball and coached it for a bit afterwards. Thus, I'm quite adept with any box positions (OL, DL, TE, LB, RB), and naturally have picked up enough QB and WR thru my offensive acumen and study, but secondary play is the toughest for me to evaluate, so I'll post Bleacher Report's write-up on Lassiter in coverage:
When in coverage, Lassiter has a smooth backpedal and quick feet to transition. He possesses good route recognition and understanding of concepts. When in zone coverage, he does a great job of splitting threats with good leverage and spacing. He shows good reaction to the ball in the air but plays with his eyes in the backfield, too often looking for the big play.
And honestly, that's totally in line with some of the tendencies we see Holmes looking for at cornerback. Most want to focus on the "can he press?" aspect of it, but the other commonalities you'll find breaking down other Holmes-added players are that they all trust their footwork, have good instincts and will go make plays. I even wrote in the original write-up of the secondary molds that "takes chances on the ball in the air" is a common feature, similar to Lassiter's eyes looking for a big play. And even to the press ability, Lance Zierlein says "Confident in press with footwork to mirror patterns from a side-shuffle in quarters coverage." about Lassiter, so overall checks a ton of boxes, and he's also noted as being a very willing tackler and a great dude. He's not a terribly sexy athlete with elite times and such, but he's a heck of a player who checks the boxes the Lions want, similar to Brian Branch last year. Consider me a huge Lassiter fan, I actually have him marked as my CB2 in this class from what I watched (though again, CB is my worst spot, so take a grain of salt there).
Round 2, Pick #61 – Western Michigan EDGE Marshawn Kneeland
There's already been a good deal linking the Broncos star pass rusher with the Lions this offseason, and it's no surprise why, as he's a near flawless fit for what the Lions have looked for at edge rusher. First and foremost, Kneeland measured in at 6-3, 267 pounds, which puts him right in the middle of the averages the Lions look for at WDE and SDE, which also serves to highlight his versatility between multiple different edge alignments. Kneeland can play weak-side edge rusher, strong-side edge rusher (in an over more so than under but still), and also stand-up and play a true SAM rush linebacker role as well, thanks to his freakish athleticism. Holmes has almost exclusively (in DET and LAR) targeted edge rushers who test with incredible explosiveness, and Kneeland tested in the 99th percentile in both broad jump and vertical jump.
On the field, the Lions have gone after hard-charging, aggressive dudes who fly around and bring relentless energy. Kneeland's game has a lot of that to it, with particularly strong hands that pack a devastating punch and force. Right now his bull rush and speed-to-power are excellent, and the overall ankle bend, hips, and flexibility suggest he can definitely be molded into a more well-rounded pass rusher overall. But he's effectively starting at an elite spot in terms of the athleticism, explosiveness, power in his hands, and intensity and motor he brings.
Kneeland was actually a former tight end in high school, and only transitioned to edge rusher in college, thus he's a bit more raw. That isn't as much of an issue for Detroit who believes heavily in their ability to develop players. In fact, I actually may be so bold as to say this, but at the end of the day, it would not actually surprise me if the Lions selected Kneeland in the first-round if they felt they couldn't land him here in the second. He's a near perfect fit for what they want to do, with elite traits, aggressiveness, and versatility. He's gonna need a season or two to develop, but I think he's gonna be really good if he lands in Detroit.
Round 3, Pick #72 (via MIN) – Alabama WR Jermaine Burton
As the Lions prepare for a current Alabama WR to breakout and take over in their offense in 2024, Jameson Williams, how about replacing Josh Reynolds with one here as well, as Jermaine Burton's an intriguing fit. The Lions type at WR, particularly for the more outside-oriented wide outs, is smooth route runners who can separate and stretch defenses vertically and over the middle. Burton's stats this past season were solid enough, but somewhat suppressed by the run-first nature of Alabama's offense under Tommy Rees with Jalen Milroe at QB.
Testing wise, Burton absolutely crushed it at the Combine, reminding folks that he's a special athlete, tallying a final RAS of 9.05 with elite explosive measurable, and a 4.45 forty-yard dash. Burton's a very sharp athlete and it shows on film, with both good change of direction and ability to break in and out of his cuts sharply, and also the speed to challenge defenses vertical. And particular to the Lions, Burton is excellent tracking the ball downfield and positioning himself under it, a true master there.
He doesn't offer a ton of juice as a runner with the ball in his hands, but is efficient enough to take what's there. Overall, Burton's an excellent fit as a supplementary wide receiver, never really going to be the guy, or "Him" as the youths would say, but quite capable of hurting defenses who are focused on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and maybe even Jameson Williams more. He's a clean fit, very sharp, and I think his production would have actually been better had he had more accurate quarterback play around him.
Round 4, Pick 132 (via KC) – Missouri OT Javon Foster
We haven't gotten into the offensive tackle realm here in one of these, and it's actually a spot the Lions might need an investment at, given that Taylor Decker is going to be 31-years old this season, and the Lions just have Dan Skipper as a depth option right now. So theoretically, a tackle who could fit a balance between being OT3 right now, but with the developmental upside to be a future left tackle depending on Decker's career arc, would be quite fun, and I think Foster can accomplish that. The traditional Holmes model here is a lot more LAR-centric, due to the fact he's drafted just Penei Sewell at OT here, otherwise using the infrastructure on the OL left to him by Bob Quinn. That model shows that the tendency here is going to be big tackles coming in around 6-5 to 6-6 and weighing between 315-330 pounds or so, that win with physicality and power at the point of attack are the most desired.
And you know what? That's Foster alright. Given that the Lions run a bit more downhill run scheme than other teams do, Foster's coming in at a great size and play style for it, measuring 6-5 and a half, and weighing 316 pounds puts him firmly in that category. Plus, the other factor is a tendency towards long arms, though obviously Sewell is a bit of an exception there. Foster, on the other hand, is not the type of athlete that Sewell is, but wins with incredibly long arms, and a very powerful approach to run blocking. The other measurement type thing that factors is a tendency towards faster OL, which Foster gets a mixed review on, with a mediocre forty-time overall, but an excellent ten-yard split, which most scouts would argue is more important for OL as a whole, as it indicates explosiveness off the snap.
He's strong on contact, able to displace defenders, control the block with excellent grip, and keep his legs churning, though his footwork as a run blocker and pass protector will need some sorting out, as right now it hinders his athleticism. If Hank Fraley can get Foster's footwork down, he's got a quality athlete with long arms and plenty of power, all of which translates to a future starter at the position, or at the worst case scenario, a quality enough OT3 to serve the Lions current needs. But overall, this could be an interesting time to figure out what Detroit-specific tendencies Holmes is looking for with the OT position, because like I said, OT is a tough one, as it's just Sewell in Detroit and that's pretty much it, so we're relying more on the Rams stuff, which so far has proven more accurate than not, but obviously is not as easily translatable as Holmes was working on that in collaboration with Les Snead above him, who ultimately had final say.
Round 5, Pick #164 – LSU DT Jordan Jefferson
With the signing of D.J. Reader last week, the Lions have likely lowered the need for a defensive tackle early in this class. That's not to rule it out, they shouldn't, but rather, it does give them the freedom to wait until later in the class when someone like Jefferson might be available to them as a developmental option. You'd think that fit standards lessen once you get to Day 3, but they actually increase from what I've noticed, and Jefferson's a very clean fit for Detroit from that standpoint. He comes in at 6-3, 313 pounds, and put up a whopping 34 reps on the bench press, demonstrating his elite upper body strength.
On film, Jefferson has all the traits, but is a little raw in his overall technique and feel. However, that shouldn't be too problematic here, as the main metrics Holmes seems to target at defensive tackle is for explosiveness and ability to leverage and play violently at the point of attack. And that's what Jefferson brings, excellent first step and burst off the snap. On film he consistently explodes into the chest of offensive linemen, and is almost always setting the tone physically. And then he's strong and a force to be reckoned with, but needs a good deal of technique work, particularly refining his hands, to become a true contributor.
But for now, the Lions could easily bring in Jefferson and stash him away for a season, letting him work and develop the more refined aspects of defensive tackle play. However, I think he's got a ton of promise and upside as a result of how quick he plays, and the power he packs alongside it. Excellent fit for the Lions as a later upside pick up.
Round 6, Pick #201 (via TB) – Alabama RB Jase McClellan
Let's talk some running backs for a minute, shall we? The Lions are probably good not to take one, with Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Craig Reynolds all back, plus Jermar Jefferson still around via the practice squad. But, it's a spot that you still can find a contributor on Day 3 of the draft at, and I don't think it's that wild to imagine the Lions keep the run game well stocked in case of emergency. So what do they look for? Well, that's a tough one to say because Holmes in Detroit has drafted one guy who fits the LAR mold (Jermar Jefferson), but a brutal athlete testing-wise, and then another who was an elite tester, but absolutely different from the prior mold (Jahmyr Gibbs). Thus, we're stuck speculating a bit. Personally, I think the LAR mold still holds a bit more weight than Gibbs' selection would suggest, as he's simply a unique talent, and Holmes saw the opportunity to add a very unique player to the roster to compliment the style of back he's largely helped acquire in LAR, which Montgomery looks like. So that mold is 205+ pound backs with decent speed, but most important, an ability to run downhill and between the tackles with decent feet and good vision.
But let's now shift focus to McClellan, who fits that size component, and more. He lacks the overall explosive breakaway speed you see from a guy like Gibbs, but, if you would indulge me for a second and guess who he's quite like?
Player A (5-10, 222 pounds): One of the safest runners in this draft with a desirable combination of size, vision, toughness and creativity. [He] runs with impressive calm and instincts in the midst of interior mayhem, weaving and battering his way through traffic. Smart teams will recognize his ability to create yardage for himself with his eyes, footwork, contact balance and power. Should alleviate concerns about his lack of explosiveness.
Player B (5-10, 221 pounds): Steady three-down running back with the size and skill set that should create a roster opportunity for him. [He] lacks explosiveness but gets it done with above-average vision and know-how. He's quick to process his lane choice and smooth getting from cut to cut. He has good-not-great burst and appears to be better suited for gap and inside-zone runs. He runs with excellent pad level and loose hips, creating impressive contact balance to extend runs through contact. He's an instinctive runner with three-down talent who could end up outplaying his draft slotting on the right team.
If you're struggling, Player B is Jase McClellan, and Player A is Lions back David Montgomery. They're very similar players coming out, though Montgomery was a bit more prolific in college, though I do think the lesser workload on McClellan is a good thing. He's also a quality pass catcher as well. It's not like the Lions need to give Craig Reynolds competition or else they'd suffer some dramatic consequence, but the Lions could very well end up in a spot to add a talented player into their rotation, and if it's a Day 3 pick, don't think anyone should even bat an eye. McClellan's a very clean fit for the Lions offense at the moment.
Round 6, Pick #204 – Maryland CB Tarheeb Still
This one also factors in that Carlton Davis is on an expiring deal this season, so even with him in Detroit, the long-term path still has room for additional corners. But looking later in this class, the options get a little harder to find, though there's a few Day 3 types who could fit the Lions mold here, and the Terps senior cornerback is one of them. Weighing in at 6-0, 189 pounds, Still has decent size for the outside, though the arm length is somewhat average. His athleticism came in at 7.50 on RAS, thanks in part to all around good not great numbers, notably a 4.52 second forty-yard dash and an 84th percentile vertical jump. So again, pretty good athlete but not a world class athlete or anything.
On the field, he's a good technician who plays with a steady backpedal and keeps his balance throughout all phases of coverage, something you don't see that consistently. This really helps him stay in good position for leverage in press coverage, able to reroute receivers and keep his footing nice and steady. He shows solid anticipation and can read the concepts in front of him quite well.
His tackling is solid, the effort is decent, and the form is decent, albeit inconsistent. Nothing to write home about but don't think it's problematic in any way. The power is there, but again, needs to wrap and drive into the legs more frequently. Should the Lions draft him, Still offers some vintage versatility, able to play on the outside or potentially in the slot, though I do think he's a little more of a field cornerback on the outside than boundary, which is totally fine for a Day 3 prospect. Still checks nearly every box, and could be a useful addition.
Round 7, Pick #249 – Oklahoma C Andrew Raym
This is another one that the Lions probably aren't going to take, but aren't exactly banned from taking (besides, the draft is and has and always will be, more about talent than about needs when you have a good general manager), and maybe could, if they'd like to keep Glasgow locked in at RG, and not require him to automatically be the go-to replacement at center if Ragnow is hurt. Thus, the Lions could look at a dude like Andrew Raym, a very experienced and veteran starter for Bill Bedenbaugh's offensive line in Norman.
There really is no true mold for interior lineman that Holmes has shown, and thus even with an RAS of just 2.23, it's hard to really even cut Raym out of the picture after Holmes and Snead took some other very poor testing iOL such as Jamil Demby an Brian Allen.
But on film, Raym's a decent fit for the Lions gap-scheme oriented offense, as he plays with excellent leverage, both with his bend and hand placement, and has the mauler mentality they like to see in their unit. He anchors against the bull rush quite well, and handles all the calls at the line of scrimmage easily too. His lateral agility is lacking, but Raym can brawl with just about anyone, a tough-nosed center who could be a nice backup option for the Lions behind Ragnow.
—-
Note: The Lions roster is in quite good shape, but the needs at this point do point to one reality which is that filling all remaining needs in the Draft is going to be very, very difficult to do. Usually you assume only rounds one thru three are spots that produce early impact players, and while Holmes has been able to add another player or two on Day 3 fairly consistently, it's harder to do so when the roster talent has risen. Essentially, the Lions still need a third wide receiver, preferably an outside one, a starting left tackle, more talent off the edge, perhaps another cornerback to develop, rotational depth at safety, and probably even another offensive tackle into the fold. The Lions cannot address all needs via the Draft, and so please avoid simply saying they need some other position because the reality is that they can't do it all here. They still need to sign additional gap filling talent.
Anyways, thanks for reading, as always with these, try to focus less on positions so much as players. Most folks still struggle reading, but maybe one day we'll get to that point.
6 comments
I’d be very happy if we could trade down from 29 to 32 and grab 2 extra picks, particularly a 4th and 5th both.
I barely watched any CFB this year and don’t have any strong opinions about any players, but positions of need all look decently addressed.
Honestly, not horrible.
I started getting it in my head that Newton or Sweat would be a Lion, and am kind of getting used to the idea of waiting till day two for a CB. I think TJ Tampa would be a great round 2-3 pickup who could learn under our new corners for a year before being a starter. I am a little leery about not taking a guard in the first 3 rounds though. I’m not sure if Holmes has his eyes set on anyone in particular, but I doubt he’s going to bet the integrity of the O-Line on Kayode (who has done well for a depth piece) or Sorsdal (who obviously grew but still has room to develop before I think he’s starting).
I keep hoping we can pick up a Kicker. I was impressed by Alabama Kicker Will Reichard.
Who starts at LG for the Lions next year? Dan Skipper?
Lassiter from what I’ve heard projects more as an off-coverage zone corner. I think we pass on that.
We might have to draft more than one Guard from this class. Need a starter and a solid backup. Dan Skipper could fill the backup role but probably not ideal.
Thanks for the analysis. My only question is how good is Burton’s blocking? Lions WRs gotta be dawgs in the blocking department.
Nice job on the mock and all of the explanations. Raised my awareness of some prospects I haven’t been considering. I also agree the Lions may take Kneeland in round 1. Lassiter is also on my short list. It’s not lost on me that playing CB at Georgia against SEC recievers is arguably the biggest challenge in CFB.
I’ve personally been intrigued by the thought of taking Jordan Morgan with the Lions first rounder. The idea being he can play guard his first year, then let fate decide from there. As a former o-line, I’d like to know how you see the fit.