TLDR: The Pens are trash at drafting and development.
Since the recent trade of Guentzel I thought this would be a good chance to look at the Penguins drafts since he was taken in the 3rd round, 77th overall, in 2013. In the last 10 years the Pens have made 51 draft selections. Lets break down some of the information about what they got out of these picks in the regular season (games played, goals, assists, points, +/-).(Stats are with the Pens only)
2014
- 1- Kasperi Kapanen (F) (22 overall) – 162 GP, 29 G, 53 A, 82 P, +9
- 4- Sam Lafferty (F) (113) – 94 GP, 6 G,15 A, 21 P, -1
- 5- Anthony Angelo (F) (145) – 31 GP, 3 G, 2 A, 5 P, +3
- 6- Jaden Lindo (F) (173) – 0,
- 7- Jeff Taylor (D) (203) – 0
2015
- 2- Daniel Sprong (F) (46) – 42 GP, 4 G, 5 A, 9 P, -6
- 5- Dominic Simon (F) (137) – 228 GP, 22 G, 51 A, 73 P, even
- 6- Frederik Tiffles (F) (167) – 0
- 7- Nikita Pavlychev (F) (197) – 0
2016
- 2- Filip Gustavsson (G) (55) – 0
- 2- Kasper Bjorkqvist (F) (61) – 6 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 P, -1
- 3- Connor Hall (D) (77) – 0
- 4- Ryan Jones (D) (121) – 0
- 5- Niclas Almari (D) (151) – 0
- 6- Joe Masonius (D) (181) – 0
2017
- 2- Zachary Lauzon (D) (51) – 0
- 3- Clayton Phillips (D) (93) – 0
- 5- Jan Drozg (F) (152) -0
- 5- Linus Olund (F) (155) – 0
- 6- Antti Palojarvi (D) (186) – 0
- 7- Will Reilly (D) (217) – 0
2018
- 2- Calen Addison (D) (53) – 0
- 2- Filip Hallander (F) (58) – 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P, even
- 5- Justin Almeida (F) (129) – 0
- 6- Liam Gorman (F) (177) – 0
2019 – Should be establishing themselves in the league
- 1- Samuel Poulin (F) (21) – 3 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 P, -3
- 3- Nathan Legare (F) (74) – 0
- 5- Judd Caulfield (F) (145) – 0
- 7- Valtteri Puustinen (F) (203) – 41 GP, 4 G, 14 A, 18 P, +3
- 7- Santeri Airola (D) (211) – 0
2020 – Should be on the cusp
- 2- Joel Blomqvist (G) (52) – 0
- 3- Calle Clang (G) (77) – 0
- 4- Jukan Svejkovsky (F) (108) – 0
- 5- Raivis Ansons (F) (149) – 0
- 6- Chase Yoder (F) (170) – 0
2021 – A bit too early to tell
- 2- Tristan Broz (F) (58) – 0
- 5- Isaac Belliveau (D) (154) – 0
- 7- Ryan McCleary (D) (194) – 0
- 7- Daniel Laatsch (D) (215) – 0
- 7- Kirill Tankov (F) (218) – 0
2022 – Too early to tell
- 1- Owen Pickering (D) (21) – 0
- 4- Sergei Murashov (G) (118) – 0
- 5- Zam Plante (F) (150) – 0
- 6- Nolan Collins (D) (167) – 0
- 6- Luke Devlin (F) (182) – 0
2023 – Definitely early to tell
The current roster consists of only 6 drafted players; Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Rust, Jarry, and Puustinen. Of those only Puustinen and Jarry are under 30. The only players drafted in the past 10 years that are still in the NHL are Puustinen, Addison (fringe D), Gustavsson (likely 1B/ good backup quality), Kapanen (3rd/4th liner), Lafferty (3rd/4th liner), and Sprong (3rd liner). That is 6 players out of the 51 we looked at, and only Gustavsson is more than a depth player.
Addison was a throw in with picks to get Zucker. Kapanen was used to get Kessel, was reacquired for a first round pick, and then waived. Lafferty was traded for Nylander who was flipped for Bemstrom. Gustavsson was thrown in with picks to get Brassard, who was then thrown in with picks to get Bugstad and McCann and both of those guys are gone. Sprong actually had a good return in Pettersson.
Lets see how that compares to the rest of the league. Info is taken from capfriendly.com but there may be issues as some players are listed oddly because of transactions. Examples include players being listed as signings/trades but are with the team that drafted them, such as Jarry (briefly tested free agency), Sebastian Aho (signed an Offer Sheet), or Sammy Blais (drafted by STL, traded to NYR then back to STL). Point being I caught what I could, but there may be some underrepresentation.
| Team | # of players | under 30yo | 1st round | 2nd | 3rd | 4th-7th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim | 13 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Arizona | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Boston | 11 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Buffalo | 12 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Calgary | 9 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Carolina | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Chicago | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Colorado | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Columbus | 14 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Dallas | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Detroit | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Edmonton | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Florida | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Los Angeles | 11 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Montreal | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Nashville | 9 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 7 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NY Islanders | 10 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| NY Rangers | 10 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Ottawa | 10 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Philadelphia | 16 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| San Jose | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Seattle | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| St Louis | 13 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Tampa Bay | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Toronto | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Vancouver | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Vegas | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Washington | 11 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Winnipeg | 10 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Some side notes
- Detroit surprised me with how they have no one from later in the draft. Jersey is also heavily reliant on the 1st round.
- Florida has made some good trades to acquire their younger core players.
- LA finds defensemen in the 4th round.
- Montreal has had some good luck finding guys late in the draft.
- Vegas is the only team that doesn't have a guy they picked in the first round playing for them.
The only teams who have fewer drafted players on the current roster than the Pens are Vegas, Seattle, Florida, and Colorado. Even still every team has more players that they drafted currently under 30.
Vegas is a bit skewed but has also drafted players that have individually played more NHL games than everyone the Pens have taken since 2017 combined in Peyton Krebs, Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki, Erik Brannstrom, Nicolas Hauge, Jake, Leschyshyn, Jonas Rondbjerg, Paul Cotter, and Pavel Dorofeyev. Obviously the first round picks were more likely to hit but they still found depth.
Florida has struggled to get traction in the draft but have also been able to trade for Tkachuk, Reinhart, Bennett, and Montour; all of whom are under 30. Part of that was hitting on some players in the past like Huberdeau or Weegar. They have done good grabbing some key pieces in free agency with Bobrovsky and Verhaeghe.
Colorado was surprising and has really only hit on first rounders in the past 10 years, but they got some gamechangers in Rantanen and Makar and were able to get some players back with Newhook, Jost, and Byram. The Avs still were able to draft guys with more time in the league than most of the pens picks in Justin Barron, Nils Aman, Connor Timmins, and A.J. Greer
Seattle is self explanatory and have Beniers being a mainstay but still have gotten playing time with Ryker Evans, Ryan Winterton, and Shane Wright. Even so they have solid potential with the OHL scoring leader David Goyette and WHL scoring leaded in Jagger Firkus, and Carson Rehkopf was 9th in the O as well.
While it is explainable that the Pens have continuously made moves for players at the deadline, they still haven't been close to hitting on any pick in a window where they desperately needed cheaper, team controlled guys. The lack of depth seems to be consistently brought up here but just trading some picks doesn't explain how bad the situation is. Getting a grand total of 53 games, 5 goals, 15 assists, and a minus 1 from every player combined since 2016 is abysmal. Second and third rounders are still important picks, and in 2013 the Pens took Jarry in the second and Guentzel in the third. From then to now the Pens have had 12 picks in the second and third and of those none are with the team right now. The best of the bunch would be either Sprong or Gustavsson, neither of which are on the team. They missed on Bjorkqvist, Lauzon, Phillips, Addison, Hallander, and Legare. Bloomqvist looks promising and Broz is up in the air, but the significant gap up till those players has compounded what we are seeing now.
The Pens have 2 players they have drafted under 30. Only 2. Lost in the cup years was the production from cheaper youth. Of course Guentzel and Rust were more impact players, but guys like Kuhnhackl and Matta played important roles as well and somewhat lesser picks like Blueger and Simon still contributed something to keep the team relevant. Hitting on just one player since Jake could have kept the streak alive, but when the best of the bunch was either Kapanen or Simon the result is what we see. It seems like very rarely do teams succeed without a younger player they drafted and developed in the line-up in some capacity.
While I do think the obvious answers of bad coaching and Hextall are valid, blame should fall on the organization as a whole for missing on picks and not getting quality youth with the picks they did trade. Even before 2014 the Pens were garbage at drafting players, and maybe even at developing the players they do end up taking. It can be argued that since 2005 (post lockout), the best player the Pens have taken after the third round is Jake Muzzin, who they didn't even sign to an entry level deal. The best they signed was Josh Archibald. Puustinen just may be the best player they have drafted out of the top three rounds since Max Talbot in 2002.
And even looking at the first rounders going back that to after the lockout there are no key players. You have Staal (good but I don't think 2nd overall good, also traded), Esposito (bust, traded), Simon Despres (bust, injuries), Bennett (bust, and probably still injured), Morrow (bust, traded), Pouliot (bust, traded for more busts), and Maatta (ok, but not great).
While the Pens have been bolstered by generational talents, they have been terrible at drafting and development going on almost decades now. Unless this is changing under Dubas, the rebuild could be a painfully long process.
10 comments
As good as Yager is, I’m very annoyed they did not take Gabriel Perrault. The only true saving grace is potentially the goalies and Ilyn being a potential steal as a top six forward down the line.
I’ll repost this again because the timeline lines up so well.
Regarding Ray Shero’s drafting, IMO the biggest loss for the org in that regard was Randy Sexton. Prior to his hire after the 2010 draft, our amateur scouting was absolutely shit. He was involved in our drafts from 2011 through 2016. He can get some credit for 2017 as well as he was in charge for that entire season, but he left for the Sabres on June 24, 2017.
Randy Sexton’s drafts, often hampered by lack of high-round picks, included the following players who contributed at the NHL level either as Penguins or on other teams:
• Filip Gustavsson (2016)
• Daniel Sprong (2015)
• Dominik Simon (2015)
• Kasperi Kapanen (2014)
• Sam Lafferty (2014)
• Tristan Jarry (2013)
• Jake Guentzel (2013)
• Olli Maatta (2012)
• Teddy Blueger (2012)
• Oskar Sundqvist (2012)
• Matt Murray (2012)
• Josh Archibald (2011)
• Scott Wilson (2011)
That was a pretty decent run. Missing on the #8 pick in 2012 was absolutely shameful given that Filip Forsberg was available and EVERYONE ON THE FUCKING PLANET KNEW THAT WAS THE RIGHT PICK I’M STILL MAD OMG OMG OMG. But when you look at the success we had in later rounds, in which many of the above players were taken, I have to give credit where it’s due. Randy Sexton fixed our draft issues.
Interestingly our former head of amateur scouting before Sexton — Jay Heinbuck — is still on the team as a scout. He must not want to be in charge of scouting but still enjoys the work of evaluating specific players.
Lemieux ran a sloppy ship.
Drafts have been bad. And since ’17, virtually every trade, “hockey trades” included. We have not improved on the position.
It’s either a bad trade, or a salary dump of a bad contract. And like you said, not like the prospects roll up from Wilkes.
Thank you I approve of this post been saying it forever.
On a positive note I think Dubas brought in a guy from Ottawa
It’s a numbers game. The more picks you have, the more chance you’ll hit. Pens have not had a lot of picks.
Seriously, kudos OP. This is a thoughtful and unique argument when this subreddit has been full of the same 3-5 rehashed talking points lately.
While their drafting has been lacking there were a few years where they were hitting it out of the park with UDFA’s. With Rutherford sending picks out the door at the blink of an eye the UDFA’s were able to prop the organization up a bit. I’m not sure what happened to the scouting for that area as they seem to have dried up in recent years.
I didn’t read beyond the title, but for many many years the Pens were in the win-now mode which meant giving up all futures. Doesn’t really matter who gets drafted
All I see is Pens only retained 3 of 10 first round picks.
Funny that Jaden Lindo is employed by the Pens these days.