@@New York Yankees

[Goodman] Baseball Reference is projecting here that the #Yankees will win 71.6 games in 2024 with a 2.7% chance of making the playoffs

  • March 26, 2024


[Goodman] Baseball Reference is projecting here that the #Yankees will win 71.6 games in 2024 with a 2.7% chance of making the playoffs

42 comments

  2. Us doing even 10 wins less than last year is interesting. I guess if Stanton, Rizzo, DJ, Nestor, Rodon continue to deteriorate it can happen. The unfortunate event of them all being injured within the same year happened last year so who knows, still gonna say highly unlikely we do worse than last year

  4. There is no way we finish worse than the Red Sox who are actively shedding payroll. Soto and Judge alone are gonna will us to .500, anything beyond that is dependent on the rest of the team staying healthy.

  5. The Rays got significantly worse, while the Yankees added the second-best hitter available in trades/FA. Make it make sense. And the Orioles are so fucking overrated it’s unreal. They have just as many questions as we do in the pitching department.

  8. Seems like some kind of clerical error lol.

    There’s no way this makes any sense

  9. I can be a pessimist who thinks we’re too much of a flawed, old, and injury proned club relying far too much on positive regression for Nestor, Rodon, DJ, Stanton, etc. to make a serious postseason run.

    An org who sees some of those flaws and is trying to throw a giant Juan Soto sized band-aid in hopes it’ll solve everything (it might?), but this?!? Below Boston?!? Cmon…

  10. That’s fucking hilarious lol

    I’m pretty low on our chances at winning the division this year, but 71 wins? Come the fuck on bro get a little serious

  11. According to them the Yankees will tie last season’s record AT BEST

    Makes no sense

  12. A projection of 3% making the playoffs? A nuclear device would have to go off at the Stadium.

  13. I don’t really think this year will be a huge leap forward, but I don’t expect us to be THAT bad.

    Pitching is a question mark, but a healthy Soto and Judge should boost the offense. Hopefully Stanton bounces back, and the added presence of Soto takes pressure off of the other players and let’s them start performing better.

    But that might be the optimism talking. I’m a Giants and Devils fan, when will I learn.

  14. FWIW, PECOTA, FanGraphs, and RotoChamp all have the Yankees projected to win the AL East.

  15. So a team that went 82-80 and didn’t lose anything hugely significant but added Soto, Stroman, Verdugo, Grisham along with contributions from Wells and Dominguez and currently has a healthy Judge and Rizzo in a division that got weaker overall is going to lose 10 more games?

  16. Kinda seems designed to enrage the fanbase just to generate more page views. I’ll pass.

  18. Yeah but what did baseball reference think the Yankees would do last year? Probably 90 something. So this is a nothing burger

  20. holy crap! I know we sucked last year, and our team has some holes still, but 71 games is a bit crazy, lol.

  21. BBRef the ultimate doomer lol. I can’t even imagine the blowback there would be if this happened… like as rough as this subreddit can get, it would reach a new level of hell previously unforeseen.

  22. They have disclaimers saying “The team’s estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games” and “Additionally, since we wanted a simple system, we are not considering player movement at the trade deadline or individual pitcher matchups which could become relevant during the final games of the season. If you want a more complicated system that considers roster composition, we would point you to the fine system at Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs.” so yeah this is pretty meaningless lol.

  23. The loss of Cole for ~2 months hurts. But no way is this a 71-72 win team. 80-82 wins if all goes to hell. 90+ if everyone bounces back. They projecting this team to be the 1992 Mets?

  28. I have no hopes for this season at all but I would be floored if we didn’t crack 80+ wins.

  29. If we end the season with 71 wins it’s only because everyone on the team became injured.

    Oh my God it’s plausible.

  30. It’s funny how everyone took the Pecoda projections as a guarantee, but say this one is ridiculous. Can’t have it both ways

  36. It makes sense as a starting position because it implicitly rejects the assumption that a team’s age and injury experience last season has no predictive value for this year. In this regard, note that we will be playing the first two months of the season without our only proven ace, and we will be starting the season without DJ, with questions swirling around Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo. Let’s see them all on the field and performing at the top of their game, let’s see Rodon turn things around in regular season, let’s see Stroman prove he’s not on the backslide of his career, and let’s see which of Volpe, Verdugo, and Peraza can step up before assuming that Soto will carry the team to a better finish in 24 than we had on 23.

  37. I personally think we’re finishing 3rd in the division, probably just barely missing or squeaking into the playoffs with a first round bounce. I don’t think this team is good right now, and cashman sucks at his job, but 71 is way too low. They’ll win like 88-91. 87 absolute minimum

  41. Fucking hell the number of math nerds here treating this math as gospel is ridiculous.

    You can tell none of you have played any sports.

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