Entering the season, Baseball Reference’s projections have the Red Sox finishing 4th in the AL East, above the Yankees


13 comments
  1. We *did* have a better run differential than the Yankees last year. But the Yankees also had a better offseason than us. But also they are top-heavy and two of their three best players are injury concerns.

    Weird projection, but probably not as outlandish as it seems on its face.

  2. These aren’t projections based on roster. They’re live playoff projections that are meant to reflect the team’s performance in their last 100 games. Naturally they look goofy when all the games in the sample are last year and many rosters have significantly changed. They’re more or less meaningless at the current moment.

  3. What’s their rationale for giving the Yankees 71 wins? For a team that has never had a losing season since I’ve been alive, I just don’t see it happening.

  4. I don’t know if Yankees come in last, but I honestly think we get 2nd in AL East and clinch the 3rd WC slot. A year for 3!! Orioles win division as well as Twins and Astros. Wild card spots go to us, Mariners, and Rangers. Blue jays, Rays, and Yankees all have over .500 seasons, but miss WC but a few games.

  5. I’d like to propose that all teams be given the option of letting their spring training winning percentage ride as their season winning percentage without having to play any games until October…..and boom! We made the playoffs! 😀

  6. I keep saying it but the Red Sox are definitely better than most people give them credit for. I totally agree that the unclear/misleading and seemingly penny-pinching FO has done little to inspire confidence, but I think the outfield is going to be one of the best in the AL. 2B will be a huge improvement once Grissom is healthy. Story looks like he might finally be on track again. And the rotation is really going to take a step forward.

    I have doubts about how well the arms hold up later into the season, and even with the improvements, they’re still looking at 4th/5th unless one of the other teams completely collapse… but the Rays are battling **significant** injury problems. The Yanks have lost Cole for at least a few months and Judge still has some injury concerns. Oswaldo Cabrera is their OD 3B, which is just… bad. Their rotation is also extremely iffy between injuries, rebounds, and unproven depth options. The Jays are hoping for rebounds and didn’t do much to improve this offseason. Their rotation depth is also threadbare (again). The O’s are legit and they are going to be legit for many years lol.

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