Looking forward to another year of learning and growth. I’ll update it again in the offseason!
Always appreciate your work dog, but honestly this would be so much better as a text post
**Section One: The overall goal is to give yourself a chance to win a World Series**
How do teams achieve that goal?
1. Get into the playoffs 1. No team has ever won a WS without making the playoffs 2. 90-95 wins is usually good enough to get in 3. Maybe the most important thing to remember 1. The postseason is a small sample size; you have to ride the wave of random variance and hope that you win it all 2. Playoff baseball is too small of a sample to count on winning a WS, so just making it into the playoffs is really the only thing teams have control over when it comes to trying to win a WS 2. Get as many postseason appearances as possible in a given window with an established core group of players 1. Less than a third of organizations produce roughly two-thirds of teams that have played in a WS since the 1994 playoff expansion 2. This disparity is even more drastic since the 2012 playoff expansion 3. Established core almost always consists of: 1. 4-5 position players who play everyday and are above average hitters 2. 3 starting pitchers who can be trusted to start a WS game 3. 2-3 relief pitchers who can be trusted to close out a WS game 4. As long as the established core is intact, a WS is possible
**Section Two: Things to remember**
1. You’re never as good as your best third of performances, nor are you as bad as your worst third 1. The best players and coaches who have sustained success acknowledge and understand this 2. Don’t get caught-up in the variance of small samples, enjoy the ride or you’ll never appreciate the destination 3. 96.7% of teams do not win a WS each year 1. Your season is not necessarily a failure if you don’t win the WS 4. Every team will win 50 game and lose 50 games 5. Every team will have a 5 game winning streak and a 5 game losing streak 6. Every team will have underperformers and overperformers 7. Every team will win games they should have lost and lose games they should have won 8. Focus on the things you can control 1. If you can’t control it, it’s not worth worrying about 9. The schedule will be tough sometimes 1. Inconsistent start times can be tough; players might have a hard time settling into a routine 2. Travel days with a game on that same day are rough, especially across time zones 3. A day off between two series at home is priceless 10. You really only have to go at least .500 on the road, and try not to get swept 1. You’re going to get swept on the road at least once 11. You should go at least .600 at home, and try not to get swept 1. You’re going to get swept at home at least once 12. The training staff isn’t trying to do anything wrong nor are they actively trying to get players injured 1. Injuries happen to every team 13. You can never have too much pitching 1. When you think you have enough pitching depth, you probably could use more 14. Your best RPs should pitch in the highest leverage situations 15. Extra innings games with the ghost runner rule are a coin toss, don’t put too much stock into those wins or losses 16. The process > the product 1. However, it can reverse in must-win games 2. (see number 8) 17. The only “must-win” games are the ones where losing results in your playoff hopes ending 1. There are no must-win games in March, April, May, June, or July 18. Ask why certain things are the way they are/why certain decisions get made 1. Assumptions lead to dead ends 19. Rookies are almost always not very good 1. They are almost always inconsistent 2. If you’re going to rely on rookies, you’re going to have to live with the inevitable ups and downs 3. If there’s a prospect playing well in AAA, wait for them to cool off 1. If they don’t cool off, wait a little bit longer 4. Calling-up a top prospect to ride the bench is not a good idea 1. It’s better for them to play regularly where they can get playing time so they can develop 5. Prospect rankings don’t really matter that much 20. Prospects will break your heart 1. Many factors (including injuries) can prevent most “top prospects” from reaching their full potential, and most won’t even become regulars on a ML roster 21. Team chemistry in some forms can be worth roughly 3 WAR in a season (a bit dated so the number could be even higher, but it’s covered a bit in *The Only Rule Is It Has to Work*; see Dr. Bezrukova’s research on “fault lines” for more info) 1. Continuity within a roster is very important 22. Very rarely can a mediocre team become a great team at the trade deadline acquisitions 1. Adding quality depth at the margins and preparing for the offseason 40-man roster crunch are important when approaching the deadline 2. Unless you’re addressing the core group of a roster (see section one, number 2(c)), trades at the deadline really don’t matter too much
Off topic, but curious what you think of Tyler Alexander?
4 comments
Looking forward to another year of learning and growth. I’ll update it again in the offseason!
Always appreciate your work dog, but honestly this would be so much better as a text post
**Section One: The overall goal is to give yourself a chance to win a World Series**
How do teams achieve that goal?
1. Get into the playoffs
1. No team has ever won a WS without making the playoffs
2. 90-95 wins is usually good enough to get in
3. Maybe the most important thing to remember
1. The postseason is a small sample size; you have to ride the wave of random variance and hope that you win it all
2. Playoff baseball is too small of a sample to count on winning a WS, so just making it into the playoffs is really the only thing teams have control over when it comes to trying to win a WS
2. Get as many postseason appearances as possible in a given window with an established core group of players
1. Less than a third of organizations produce roughly two-thirds of teams that have played in a WS since the 1994 playoff expansion
2. This disparity is even more drastic since the 2012 playoff expansion
3. Established core almost always consists of:
1. 4-5 position players who play everyday and are above average hitters
2. 3 starting pitchers who can be trusted to start a WS game
3. 2-3 relief pitchers who can be trusted to close out a WS game
4. As long as the established core is intact, a WS is possible
**Section Two: Things to remember**
1. You’re never as good as your best third of performances, nor are you as bad as your worst third
1. The best players and coaches who have sustained success acknowledge and understand this
2. Don’t get caught-up in the variance of small samples, enjoy the ride or you’ll never appreciate the destination
3. 96.7% of teams do not win a WS each year
1. Your season is not necessarily a failure if you don’t win the WS
4. Every team will win 50 game and lose 50 games
5. Every team will have a 5 game winning streak and a 5 game losing streak
6. Every team will have underperformers and overperformers
7. Every team will win games they should have lost and lose games they should have won
8. Focus on the things you can control
1. If you can’t control it, it’s not worth worrying about
9. The schedule will be tough sometimes
1. Inconsistent start times can be tough; players might have a hard time settling into a routine
2. Travel days with a game on that same day are rough, especially across time zones
3. A day off between two series at home is priceless
10. You really only have to go at least .500 on the road, and try not to get swept
1. You’re going to get swept on the road at least once
11. You should go at least .600 at home, and try not to get swept
1. You’re going to get swept at home at least once
12. The training staff isn’t trying to do anything wrong nor are they actively trying to get players injured
1. Injuries happen to every team
13. You can never have too much pitching
1. When you think you have enough pitching depth, you probably could use more
14. Your best RPs should pitch in the highest leverage situations
15. Extra innings games with the ghost runner rule are a coin toss, don’t put too much stock into those wins or losses
16. The process > the product
1. However, it can reverse in must-win games
2. (see number 8)
17. The only “must-win” games are the ones where losing results in your playoff hopes ending
1. There are no must-win games in March, April, May, June, or July
18. Ask why certain things are the way they are/why certain decisions get made
1. Assumptions lead to dead ends
19. Rookies are almost always not very good
1. They are almost always inconsistent
2. If you’re going to rely on rookies, you’re going to have to live with the inevitable ups and downs
3. If there’s a prospect playing well in AAA, wait for them to cool off
1. If they don’t cool off, wait a little bit longer
4. Calling-up a top prospect to ride the bench is not a good idea
1. It’s better for them to play regularly where they can get playing time so they can develop
5. Prospect rankings don’t really matter that much
20. Prospects will break your heart
1. Many factors (including injuries) can prevent most “top prospects” from reaching their full potential, and most won’t even become regulars on a ML roster
21. Team chemistry in some forms can be worth roughly 3 WAR in a season (a bit dated so the number could be even higher, but it’s covered a bit in *The Only Rule Is It Has to Work*; see Dr. Bezrukova’s research on “fault lines” for more info)
1. Continuity within a roster is very important
22. Very rarely can a mediocre team become a great team at the trade deadline acquisitions
1. Adding quality depth at the margins and preparing for the offseason 40-man roster crunch are important when approaching the deadline
2. Unless you’re addressing the core group of a roster (see section one, number 2(c)), trades at the deadline really don’t matter too much
Off topic, but curious what you think of Tyler Alexander?