The moment many of you have been waiting for! Here it is, with plenty of time left before the Draft to get a solid look through. I have surveyed and read thru and watched thru (not all) about 400+ prospects to whittle down the list to the ones who are more plausibly Lions oriented fits.
How Fits Are Determined
Some of you are probably thinking to yourself, "man, going through that just seems so subjective, how ever can it be accurate?" Well the good news is, it is quite accurate. To date, I have been using a fit-based metric structure for the past seven years of the NFL Draft. This pattern recognition/analytical blend tries to narrow down tons of available and largely quantifiable (not sometimes subjective) data into trends that can thus be used to whittle down and become predictive.
When going through this, the aim is to identify a "mold" of sorts. So, in other words, when you look at the players Holmes has played a major role in adding and, particularly, drafting, what are the consistent attributes that he seems to prioritize, or at least be drawn to.
Thus, I go through a handful of different pieces to identify who fits that particular mold. And to date, it has proven to be highly accurate. Brad Holmes has made 23 picks as the Lions general manager thus far, and I've been able to identify 20 of them as really clear fits prior to their selection, narrowing each draft class down from about 500 prospects down to 125-150 or so. This year, it's a bit higher, as the overall caliber of this class is somewhat higher than usual, and is particularly deep at OL, which creates some sorting complications (more later).
But, to get back to the original question, on a massive spreadsheet, I hold a list of all the players Brad Holmes has added into his roster, whether that's drafted or free agents, and then gone through and created some sortable data from it. So effectively, there are four categories of players who qualify to be on this list, plus one outlier. Those are:
- Players Holmes has drafted in Detroit. These receive the heaviest weighting of the group.
- Players drafted by LAR during Holmes' tenure as Dir. of College Scouting. As Snead's right-hand man, this is a spot that Holmes clearly had influence with.
- Players signed by Brad Holmes as free agents to Detroit. While already being professionals does muddy some of this, it does provide some useful additions/adaptations.
- Players traded for by Brad Holmes to Detroit. Same as above.
The outlier is Devon Witherspoon because we know Holmes would have taken the Illini cornerback last year if he wasn't swiped a pick ahead of Detroit in the draft.
These are the categories that factor in.
Size Range: While outliers do exist, most of the positions are very tightly grouped, creating a relative range that suggests that this is the height-weight-build that Holmes feels most comfortable with. Obviously it's a bit easier to suggest someone bigger than that fits, but not always honestly.
Testing Scores/Combine Data: Someone is going to get overly fussy and act like it doesn't matter. I'll talk more about why that's a stupid take later on. But a few testing measurements are measured, and a few are specific to specific positions. But mainly, the three main ones to look at, which you'll see on the list, are the overall RAS, the 10-yard split percentile score, and the broad jump score. Those two spots have the highest correlation to Holmes' draft patterns, and it's pretty noteworthy honestly.
Scheme Fit: The Lions have a specific scheme, and fans tend to overestimate the translatability of anyone's skillset. There are specific traits and scouting notes that tend to be heavily identifiable towards what kind of player the Lions want. A good, familiar example for everyone is that cornerbacks who can operate comfortably in press man coverage are ideal, given that the Lions run a lot of press man coverage. This one is somewhat subjective, but I've turned it into a relatively straightforward data-based one.
How? Simple. I've combed thru scouting reports of every player Holmes has added and identified what the top five most consistent types of traits are per position. Then, for each player, I return to reliable scouting reports, or my own evaluations (about 100 of those completed each cycle) and then weight them there. To qualify as a high scheme fit, you need to possess at least 3 of the 5 traits in that category.
Intangibles: This one has a very simple way of evaluating. Fans too often read into small little things from social media and try and weigh that, which sometimes can help. But I personally will simply comb through Dane Brugler's The Beast to see if they get any marks/comments about their tenacity/determination/football IQ/character/work ethic/leadership/etc.
Other Considerations: There are a few other intangible trends, such as starts, age, meeting w/ the team in the pre-draft process, some positions have heavier tendencies for P5 players than others. Things like that. These are generically considered. Other things like need can factor in here a bit, and then there's also a little open space for adding new skillsets that are useful. This year, there will be a heavy element of return game capabilities you'll notice gets some marks here.
Is This Useful…Does it Matter?
To an extent, sure! A lot of fans casually just remark that "no one knows" and while that's somewhat true, it's inaccurate as a full fledged blanket statement. There is always a degree of uncertainty, but as mentioned, this format has helped me identify 20/23 players Holmes has drafted, and it's also helped me evaluate more specifically, rather than generically. Here's an example:
Last year, I posted this on a sub stack, but an intriguing evaluation was Alabama safety Brian Branch. A lot of people dismissed Branch due to his lower-than-ideal RAS number at the time, but targeted analysis helps see through some of that. This is from an article I published last spring:
Another candidate to watch with this testing metric in mind is Alabama safety Brian Branch. While Branch’s overall RAS profile was fairly average, just a 5.25 overall, he does actually grade out quite well in the two areas that Holmes seems to prioritize, which are the 10-yard split and his broad jump. Branch comes in in the 83rd percentile in the broad jump and 86th percentile in the 10-yard split. This is a great example of why specific Combine data can be useful, as one may be tempted to look at Branch’s overall uninspiring final number and dismiss him, without realizing that the spots that Holmes has seemingly prioritized the most are the spots Branch specifically excelled.
As you can see, having these specifics helps you see through the cloudy uncertainty of the overall number and target some of the things Holmes appears to weigh. Most would look at a 5.25 RAS and deem Branch too unathletic, but the two heaviest correlations for Holmes were very high marks for Branch, making him an under-the-radar target.
And understanding the molds as well is very helpful. Last year, the first predictive mock draft I posted about the Lions contained Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta, Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker, and North Carolina wide receiver Antoine Green as likely targets for Detroit. You know who the Lions ended up picking? All three of those dudes. Here's the write-ups from each of those:
LaPorta:
When it comes to TE, Holmes throughout his career has shown a willingness to take on shorter tight ends, which works great for the 6’3 LaPorta. His 6’3, 245 pound build is actually perfectly in line with the average player Holmes has targeted there. And as far as athleticism, LaPorta also checks off that box, coming in at an RAS of 9.29, with great explosiveness and agility, the two key indicators there.
As far as what the mold is at TE, it’s athletic and fluid players who can work the middle of the field, make decent cuts in route-running, and give high effort in run blocking, but don’t necessarily need to be a run blocking master.
Hooker:
It is hard to suggest we really have a mold here, because Jared Goff has been the QB for Brad Holmes’ team for several years. However, when looking at Hooker, he does do a lot of the same things that Goff does well, notably, keep plays on schedule, deliver an accurate ball, and play with sound footwork and mechanics. So why make this add? Well, I would argue that the one weakness Goff has shown everywhere has been his deep ball accuracy. Hooker is a much better downfield passer and outside the numbers than Goff, who prefers to play over the middle as much as possible. The concerns on Hooker however are quite valid, a 25-year old rookie coming off a torn ACL who is not overly decisive throwing across the middle. Several Lions folks however, such as Jeff Risdon, do believe the Lions are seriously interested in Hooker nonetheless, so we are going to include him here.
Green:
This pick is quite easy, as we go with a player the Lions have met with, who clearly checks some benchmarks, UNC WR Antoine Green. His testing comes just a smidge short of the rough benchmarks we are working with, but those tend to be a bit looser the later into the Draft you get, so we can stick to the on-field scouting here by and large. The Lions prefer guys who can separate, flash some speed, and have good hands. Green was a deep-threat specialist in North Carolina, hauling in over 19 yards per catch over his time thanks to his explosive speed and his quality tracking of the ball in the air.
Add in the explosiveness preference Holmes has shown, and his background as a long jumper and triple jumper in track will clearly make him a desirable piece for Detroit to add.
Now Some Issues
The system is flawless however, and one adjustment I've made since 2023 is tuning down the valuation I am factoring into these. I actually mentioned Jack Campbell was an excellent fit for the Lions later-round mold, but that Holmes had diverged a bit on the linebackers valued earlier, and said something along the lines of he is a great fit overall but doesn't match the valuation for the first- or second-round. That was obviously wrong, and my notes on Jahmyr Gibbs actually were quite similar, noting he had the sharp footwork and vision that Holmes had targeted, but after signing Montgomery, the chances of him being their pick in the second-round was decreased.
Holmes obviously proved those wrong by adding both players when my valuation index said probably not. Thus, I've largely disposed of it. Now, focus is mostly just on scheme fit, which did identify both last year as fits.
Position Assignments
The positional notes might be unique for some people, but are how I attempt to classify specific roles rather than just a simple tag of "OL" or "CB". Here's the bulleted notes on those:
- OL positions are specifically listed.
- QB: The quarterback spots are numbered with what rung on the depth chart they could occupy for an NFL team.
- RB
- P-RB: power running back with a focus on downhill running
- R-RB: receiving/scatback type with emphasis on pass catching
- S-RB: slashing back with versatile focus, ability to cut and gain big yards
- WR:
- X-WR: traditional outside wide receiver who can beat press
- F-WR: flanker wide receiver who can play outside or inside, but may need release help
- S-WR: slot wide receiver playing inside aligned
- TE:
- Y-TE: traditional inline tight end who can block and catch
- H-TE: offline tight end who sticks near box but isn't as much an asset in run blocking
- F-TE: flex tight end, largely a jumbo WR aligned outside the box
- EDGE:
- S-DE: strong side defensive end, tends to be more run-focused
- W-DE: weak side defensive end, tends to be more rush-focused
- SAM: SAM-aligned rush outsider linebacker, largely rush-focused
- EDGE: can play all three
- DT:
- 1NT: traditional nose tackle over the center
- 3DT: three-technique over the guard
- 5DT: 3-4 defensive end (4i technique) or 4-3 covered SDE (over tackle but with SAM backer covering him).
- LB:
- MLB: Middle inside linebacker. Traditional interior thumper.
- WLB: weak side inside linebacker. More of a pursue and chase tackler.
- SLB: SAM-aligned outside linebacker w/ rush & drop capacity.
- OLB: overhang linebacker on edge of the box.
- CB:
- BCB: boundary cornerback, more of the stereotypical CB1 type, playing on their own island.
- FCB: field cornerback, plays more open sided with safety help.
- SCB: slot cornerback, plays inside against slot wide receivers and tight ends.
- 3PCB: three phase cornerback, can play all three spots at high level.
- S:
- FS: split-scheme safety with deep lying emphasis.
- SS: split-scheme safety with downhill emphasis.
- BOX: more of a linebacker/safety hybrid, a run support player coming forward.
- NCB: nickel cornerback, same as slot cornerback, but more rolled down from safety alignment to handle the duty.
Enough Talk…SHOW ME THE LIST!
And here we go…
I may have missed some visits/meetings in there. Please forgive me. I have been putting this together for two weeks and may have missed some visits in between.
Additional Notes/Key to Read the List
Do note some of the boxes on the right hand side that aren't testing. For example, there are three options for both the SCHEME and INTANGIBLES boxes. These are the breakdowns for scheme:
- MOD: moderate fit, meaning that of the 5 or so top traits needed to succeed in either Holmes' preferential traits or the Lions current system, these players have about 3 of them, meaning they're a good scheme fit, but potentially lacking one piece or two.
- DEV: developmental fit, meaning that while they may possess only 2-3 of the top traits, they've shown clear flashes of an additional 2-3 top traits, meaning that with proper development they could become a high scheme fit.
- HIGH: high fit, meaning that of the those 5 top traits, they possess at least 4 of them, usually all 5. These players are very clean fits with next to no question they fit the desired traits needed to play in the Lions system.
For the intangibles, more variance to it.
- CONCERN: This simply means there has been something mentioned, reported, etc. that poses some initial concern and would need to be addressed by the staff. For example, TE Theo Johnson has a concern on there. He gets high marks for his leadership from James Franklin so would have been a HIGH grade here, however, Johnson has a fairly recent arrest on his record. Concern just means there's some homework needing to be done.
- MOD: Moderate is less a grade that they possess moderate intangibles, rather that I simply haven't been able to find anything distinguishing them one way or another. So this is a very neutral grade.
- HIGH: Really simply and the standard exists across the board. If I can find a source or publication who has a source mentioning that the players is exemplary in their work ethic, leadership, character, football IQ, etc. or have been a team captain (per The Beast), then I'll up them.
One thing I often get asked is "what about Player X", and the answer to that is usually those players grade out just below a fully fledged fit. A lot of these players I'd classify as good fits, but good fit means they probably make like 2-3 of the 5 categories, and tend to be significant lacking in something important. Here's some folks who were close, but got taken off due to just a few too many deviations.
There are some others that fit in here as well. I do weigh the scheme fit column the heaviest, particularly over testing, but these guys came close but missed out for varied reasons.
Clean Greens
In honor of the Masters and the Green Jackets they award, this special category is our clean greens, the prospects who come across with all greens (or blues in the spots where we prefer blue to green). Effectively, these are players with zero hesitations from what we know.
Final Boanerges77 Predictions
Ending this off with three specific predictions for the Lions…
(1.) My prediction for the Lions first-round pick is Missouri DL Darius Robinson
I don't have Robinson as my top priority in the first-round, as I'd go with about 4-5 different players before him, but chances are some of those guys will be off the board by then, and I think Robinson's going to appeal to Detroit significantly.
Here's what Dane Brugler had to say about Robinson in The Beast:
Impressive-looking athlete with a powerful frame and exceptional length … stout versus the run with well-distributed mass on his frame … large, violent
hands to hammer blockers and physically break down their rhythm (Georgia head coach Kirby Smart: “(Robi nson) is one of the hardest guys to block in our league.”) … displaces tight ends like rag dolls … go-to rush move is a two-handed bull rush, which creates easy movement at contact and walks blockers into the pocket … gets rolling downhill and closes quickly once he clears the blocker … gives consistent effort … vocal, outgoing leader and twice v oted a team captain, which he calls “the biggest honors of my life” (Missouri teammate Cody Schrader: “He’s the best leader I’ve ever been around. … We went as he went.”) … had a breakout final season at Missouri, including a sack in seven straight games … voted the top performer at the 2024 Senior Bowl.
Really seems to fit the Lions emphasis on excellent football character, with power and versatility. He lacks a bit in the explosiveness category, but I think he's similar to Brian Branch where the full testing doesn't show an elite athlete, but he hits an 80th percentile 10-yard split, and an 85th percentile broad jump, which definitely are advanced enough in Detroit's preferred tests to warrant an athleticism/explosiveness check. Hard to say who is going to really be on the board at 29, but I think Robinson's the one most likely to end up a Detroit Lion by the end of the night. Dude might not even need to hop on his flight back from Detroit.
I do think both Marshawn Kneeland and Michael Hall Jr. are both surprise first-round candidates for Detroit. Not shot calling or anything, I think they'll go Darius Robinson. But neither of those two would surprise me.
(2.) If the Lions trade up, think there's four names they'd go for…
Holmes has shown a willingness to be aggressive early on, as he moved up to land WR Jameson Williams, and then also moved up for Brian Branch last year. The Lions could certainly feel like they don't want to miss out on a true first-round talent (usually only about 18-22 graded prospects each year) and may move up as a result. If they do, I think these are the four names they'd really go after…
- LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. – elite vertical, field stretching wide receiver.
- Florida State EDGE Jared Verse – explosive and powerful rusher.
- Duke OL Graham Barton – high floor, versatile mauler on the interior.
- Alabama CB Terrion Arnold – press specialist, high IQ cornerback with great athleticism.
Now for those asking, yes, I could envision Quinyon Mitchell getting a nod from Detroit. He's not a good scheme fit right now, and is a good deal rawer than a lot of his biggest fans care to admit. But he's aced the offseason process, and is likely going to appeal in that regard as guys who can fine tune their approach and show that level of effort and preparedness usually make good professionals. Mitchell did not make the list earlier as a result of poor scheme fit overall, but yes, I could see him being a player they ignore the mold for.
(3.) The player I am most confident about projecting to the Detroit Lions this year outright is none other than….
Every year, I do try and nab a prediction for which one specific player I do think is most likely to land as a Lion. I hit on this one in 2021 and 2023, with Purdue LB Derrick Barnes and then North Carolina WR Antoine Green. 2022 was a miss, as TE Greg Dulcich was a third-round pick for the Broncos, not the Lions. But this year, the player I am projecting here is…
Air Force safety Trey Taylor. Elite blend of on-field scheme fit, great intangibles off the field. Really the whole package. If he doesn't end up a Lion, think it will be because someone else scoops him up before Detroit is able to (or they go safety much sooner). He's a fantastic fit for what Holmes has evaluated and prioritized at that spot. Think he's the most likely player the Lions add.
Final Note
I spend a lot of time on this. I take a lot of time to also explain what I am doing and back it up. I will answer questions folks have, but this is the internet, I am not here to serve you, I am doing this because I enjoy it. If you feel the need to engage in a contentious/disingenuous manner, I will use the block feature quickly. I do not need to waste my time with internet trolls, so this is your fair warning.
Next full post will be a final predictions mock draft. Then the draft review in two weeks following the Draft itself.
Feel free to ask any questions you have about clarifications.
9 comments
TLDR?
Great write up! You make this subreddit a better place with your contributions.
I absolutely love the pick of high confidence you do based on scheme fits. It really helps me look for certain players in the middle rounds during the actual draft. Thanks for the hard work
Thank you so much for all of the work it took to put this together. You would probably undertake this project even if there was not internet to share it with. But I am very glad you shared it.
Love Cooper Beebe and Ladd McConkey.
Hopefully a team with some draft capital will trade up back into round one to snag a player they love. The second round has some players that could easily be first rounders without 5 quarterback going in the first round.
This is awesome! Appreciate all the work you put into this.
That’s actually really impressive you nailed Barnes and Green two out of three years.
Man, you put in the work! Impressive. Do you think Brad would trade down if a player drops that another team covets? That might be a “Brad” thing to do, especially with the draft here in Detroit 😆. Either way, we are going to get some talent.
I don’t see Z-WR on your caption, is it the same as the F/flanker?