The Athletic: NFL teams know the best way to draft – so why aren’t they doing it?
April 16, 2024
The Athletic: NFL teams know the best way to draft – so why aren’t they doing it?
2 comments
Good deep dive from the Athletic on the question, basically, of “can you game the NFL draft?” The answer: you can, by trading down to stockpile picks and never, ever trading up. “Teams *massively* overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they *heavily* overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft.”
Some stats I found compelling:
* The odds that a player will start more games than the player picked immediately after them is only 53%, nearly a coin flip. * If you judge GMs by the number of games their drafted players started in, there is basically no GM that’s better than any other GM. Except, apparently, the Ravens’ Ozzie Newsome, who uses the pick-stockpiling strategy regularly. * You can generate a 174% return on investment by trading a high pick this year for a lower pick this year and an extra pick next year.
And some quotes:
“Public pressure may prevent some teams from enacting the newer approach. Make seven picks, and you’ll be judged seven times. Make three trades and 10 picks, and you’ll be judged 13 times. Watch other teams nail picks you traded — or miss on picks you traded for — and negative narratives can quickly form.”
“That’s what led [Gera] to Cleveland, where, on a plane at the beginning of the 2013 season, he says he heard a Browns executive say, ‘The only person I’ve seen who competes harder than Johnny Manziel is Michael Jordan.’… ‘The draft is an absolute petri dish for every cognitive bias underneath the sun,’ Gera said.”
“Another consideration that prevents teams from accumulating more picks is the number of competing incentives among decision-makers. Teams preach collaboration, alignment and shared vision, but their end goals may conflict directly with different segments of the organization.”
I agree in principle but I think this fails to factor in the fact that some front offices are just better at identifying talent than others. It doesn’t do any good to have more mid/late round draft picks if a team whiffs on those too.
In the panthers situation, I’d be happy for the new FO to have as many picks as possible. Give them a chance to prove that they know how to scout players.
2 comments
Good deep dive from the Athletic on the question, basically, of “can you game the NFL draft?” The answer: you can, by trading down to stockpile picks and never, ever trading up. “Teams *massively* overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they *heavily* overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft.”
Some stats I found compelling:
* The odds that a player will start more games than the player picked immediately after them is only 53%, nearly a coin flip.
* If you judge GMs by the number of games their drafted players started in, there is basically no GM that’s better than any other GM. Except, apparently, the Ravens’ Ozzie Newsome, who uses the pick-stockpiling strategy regularly.
* You can generate a 174% return on investment by trading a high pick this year for a lower pick this year and an extra pick next year.
And some quotes:
“Public pressure may prevent some teams from enacting the newer approach. Make seven picks, and you’ll be judged seven times. Make three trades and 10 picks, and you’ll be judged 13 times. Watch other teams nail picks you traded — or miss on picks you traded for — and negative narratives can quickly form.”
“That’s what led [Gera] to Cleveland, where, on a plane at the beginning of the 2013 season, he says he heard a Browns executive say, ‘The only person I’ve seen who competes harder than Johnny Manziel is Michael Jordan.’… ‘The draft is an absolute petri dish for every cognitive bias underneath the sun,’ Gera said.”
“Another consideration that prevents teams from accumulating more picks is the number of competing incentives among decision-makers. Teams preach collaboration, alignment and shared vision, but their end goals may conflict directly with different segments of the organization.”
I agree in principle but I think this fails to factor in the fact that some front offices are just better at identifying talent than others. It doesn’t do any good to have more mid/late round draft picks if a team whiffs on those too.
In the panthers situation, I’d be happy for the new FO to have as many picks as possible. Give them a chance to prove that they know how to scout players.