O Captain, My Captain, what ails you.
Taking a look at Judges numbers to start out the year, they aren't great, in fact this is one of the worst statistical years that Judge has had in his Major League career, rivaling his dreadful 2016. Taking a look at his metrics on Baseball Savant, it is no surprise to see that Judge is struggling this year compared to his previous years, the issue is glaringly obvious: he is not making good contact with the baseball.
Taking a look at his stats here, his Barrel % is at an all time low of 10.7%, a 16.8% drop from last year, his Hard Hit % is 46.4%, down 17.8% from last year, his Sweet Spot % is 28.6%, another career low and down 8.5% from last year. His SLG is .337, another career low. In around the same amount of plate appearances, he is performing worse than in his 2016 call up.
His Meatball Swing %, which is essentially how many times he swings at a meatball right down the middle is the second worst of his career, sitting at a 72.4%, so when he is getting good pitches to hit, he is swinging at them at a substantially lower rate. His zone contact rate, which is the rate at which he hits pitches in the zone is the 3rd lowest on the team ahead of only Stanton and Gleyber at a 76.7%. For reference, Verdugo is sitting at a 96.1%.
Aaron Judge is our captain, has one of the best statistical seasons we have ever witnessed, and has been the perfect Yankee. There is no reason to expect for this to continue, he has the track record to prove it, however, the numbers are very bad right now, and the rate at which is making solid contact is alarming for his standards to say the least.
16 comments
There’s one reason for concern, he’s at the age where decline begins for just about everyone, and he’s a historical outlier with his size. I dont necessarily think his age is causing the problem but you can’t discount it. Sometimes the lights just go off.
Gonna be a long 9 more years #stanton2.0
Either he’s hurt, still in ST mode, or mixture of both. Also doesn’t help that the whole team outside of Soto and Verdugo has actively stunk in this stretch. Judge’s struggling before that, but when the whole team’s struggling it makes you that much more anxious at the plate trying to do too much.
Probably has something to do with his core not being 100%. If you watch those teacher man hitting vids you need a really stable core to snap the bat back and rotate.
The Statcast doesn’t tell the why. It only tells the tale of his struggle.
Trust in the process. He’s not happy with his results, so he’ll make the adjustments and get going.
Not making good contact, or any contact? The big guy is painful to watch right now.
I’m not going to be gloom & doom yet.
He will pull out of this slump.Its only April for crying out loud.If the slump carries into July then I’ll be worried.
It really just feels like an approach thing to me. He’s missing/fouling when the pitcher makes a “mistake” pitch, not laying off pitches he normally lays off, and just watching pitches groove down the plate for either strike 1 or strike 3. Im sure he and the coaches are aware, and hopefully he stops looking like a guess hitter and just starts reacting during ABs
Solution is simple “See the Fing ball ….HIT the Fing ball” problem solved!
So here’s the thing. Of course your peripherals are going to be low when you’re ice cold, that’s the point. Judge is just not picking up the ball well, therefore missing the ball or making poor contact, therefore awful statcast numbers. You’ve told me the effect of being cold, but you haven’t actually told me the cause of being cold. Why is Judge not seeing the ball well? Well, he’s literally just cold. There are numerous star players with blue statcast numbers that will quickly become red as the season progresses.
The way you’re presented it, you’ve presented it as regression, and that Judge has lost his ability. He has not.
The reason I don’t think he’s hurt is he isn’t the only one.
Call me back in mid-June, if this persists then I would say we have a problem but right now I really don’t care, just do your best to find ways to win, I have extremely high confidence that he’ll get back to looking like judge in the coming months
im shocked. hes not making good contact with the baseball? never would’ve guessed
Is he hurt? Is it the missing time in Spring Training? Playing CF most of the time, causing some physical issues? Used to hitting 2nd instead of 3rd? A wise man once said 90% of this game is 50% mental.
the two big issues are lack of swing authority and being bad against sliders down when he was crushing them last couple years.
potential parsimonious explanation that accounts for both of these observations is that there’s a swing change that made him worse against low zone pitches. this would involve messing with his previously excellent vertical bat angle.
If he can find a couple lessons with teacherman then he should be fine….if he can’t tho…